#BREAKING NEWS: Pa. Health Sec. Dr. Rachel Levine has issued a one-night suspension of alcohol sales starting at 5 p.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 25, which is the night before the Thanksgiving holiday. https://t.co/iVngbGjRoZ
— KDKA (@KDKA) November 23, 2020
Do not listen to this man. He is not sane. That this man with this big a departure from sanity became the Health Secretary for an entire state should give you a strong clue that much of the hyper-overreaction of the virus is politically motivated.
Boris Johnson confirms plans to create a Covid freedom pass – areas will be bombarded by mass testing. People who test negative will be able to see pals and go to events others cannot
— Kate Ferguson (@kateferguson4) November 23, 2020
This is absurd. Because, as you’ll see below, even if you don’t have the bug today, you can get it tomorrow. Testing has to be endless.
— A Current Affair (@ACurrentAffair9) November 23, 2020
Regular readers will recall when mandatory vaccination was a conspiracy theory.
Of course, now all communicable diseases will require mandatory vaccinations. You will have to carry with you everywhere you go certification you have received whatever is the current list of vaccines.
To make others safe, of course. The vaccine the other guy took does not protect him. The one they may you take will protect him. It’s science.
Now not all communicable diseases have vaccines. Therefore anybody who engages in behavior that put them at risk of HIV cannot travel.
Or on and on and on and on.
Or is that the coronavirus is the only disease? All others no longer exist.
Had too busy of a week to do anything much about the book.
Andrew Harrod (review): COVID-19’s Catastrophic Pandemic Fear.
— Greg Piper #TeamReality (@gregpiper) November 20, 2020
Website of similar name: price of panic.
This is the number of daily tests. The date of the media’s (COVID Tracking Project) peak attributed deaths is noted: attributed deaths have been steadily declining since then (they will never go to 0).
Two million a day now. Not one. Two. Million. As in two thousand thousands. Maybe I should have a contest to predict the first day of three million. Comment below.
Each positive test in the media is counted as a new “case”. These are almost all not cases, but merely positive tests, which indicate past infections, current by mild infections, asymptomatic infections, and even no infections at all. False positives.
If you are not ill, why are you getting tested?
“To be sure I don’t have it, Briggs! You uncaring fool.”
That so? So you got tested yesterday?
“Yes, a negative.”
But you might have caught it since then. Right? You need to test every day if you’re that concerned. Right?
And every day forever, since this bug will never go away.
If testing was at all related to actual deaths, a plot of number of tests per number of deaths should be somewhat flat, all things considered. Here’s what the plot looks like in reality:
Last two weeks not included because of CDC late reporting. There is early variability in March because deaths and testing was low. Testing no longer has any relationship to number of deaths. Testing is purely its own phenomenon, disconnected from all medical reality.
LATE HOMEWORK Posted this last week and nobody has yet done it. Get busy! The coronadoom test has a high false positive rate: estimates vary, but it is large, perhaps 4%, sometimes much, much higher. Math exercise: given a 1-5% prevalence rate, with this false positive rate, how many false positive tests will be reported in 1.7 million tests? Every single day? If you know the math, please do this. Be sitting down when you do.
Here are CDC the weekly attributed coronavirus deaths:
These are attributed deaths, which include all those dying with or dying from the coronavirus. The CDC says deaths “involving” COVID.
Attributed COVID deaths peaked early in the year, and then as it spread to the south, it re-peaked. It is now joining the great chorus of bugs that circulate every winter. It will peak in winter, and subside again in spring. This year’s totals will be higher than next year’s, and there always be fluctuation, just like with flu.
Here’s the CDC weekly ALL CAUSE death counts, or the Perspective Plot. The late drop off is late counting, which takes up to eight weeks to get all, but most are in by three. We need to look at all cause deaths because we can’t quite trust the COVID numbers.
The black line is all deaths, including COVID. Weekly deaths are now at a low, even COVID is small. The dashed is all minus attributed COVID, and the red, for perspective, is COVID. (Again, the drop off is late counts.) The blue line, about the same order as the doom, is flu+pneumonia (it’s the pneumonia that kills most flu patients).
The CDC (suspiciously) stopped reporting separate flu and pneumonia deaths midway through 2020, but I estimate them after by subtracting deaths “involving” COVID from those “involving” (their word) pneumonia or flu or COVID. That’s the dashed blue line.
Here is another way to look at the same data, week of the year all cause deaths, along with a model (black line) of what deaths would look like without COVID.
Ignoring the late counts, deaths are exactly where we expect them to be. There is no reason or justification to panic.
Here is what the CDC said this week about the flu (the refresh this page all the time, so go and look now):
Please note, the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet) monitors outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI), not laboratory confirmed influenza, and as such, will capture visits due to other respiratory pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2, that present with similar symptoms. In addition, healthcare seeking behaviors have changed dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many people are accessing the healthcare system in alternative settings which may or may not be captured as a part of ILINet. Therefore, ILI data, including ILI activity levels, should be interpreted with extreme caution.
They also say “Flu activity is unusually low at this time but may increase in the coming months.” Which is amusing.
Here is the WHO’s global flu tracker:
Flu has gone missing. Flu + pneumonia kill about 200,000 each and every year in the US. Not anymore. That is, we don’t know any more, because nobody is bothering to check.
Here is the CDC official population mortality rates for the all causes other than COVID, and “involving” COVID (with and of).
Here are the same population fatality rates in tabular form:
POPULATION FATALITY RATES Age COVID OtherCause 1 Under 1 year 0.00000710 0.00380 2 1–4 years 0.00000100 0.00017 3 5–14 years 0.00000098 0.00010 4 15–24 years 0.00000980 0.00063 5 25–34 years 0.00003900 0.00120 6 35–44 years 0.00011000 0.00180 7 45–54 years 0.00029000 0.00320 8 55–64 years 0.00068000 0.00710 9 65–74 years 0.00160000 0.01400 10 75–84 years 0.00390000 0.03400 11 85 years and over 0.01100000 0.10000
No matter what age, there is at least about a 10 times or larger chance of dying from something else then COVID.
About masks, see this article.
To support this site and its wholly independent host using credit card or PayPal (in any amount) click here