Statistics

More Reasons Not To Fear COVID

To all those emailing: yes, I’m working on voter fraud, behind the scenes mostly.

Here are some more complicated reasons not to fear the coronadoom. I didn’t want to put these in the main update, which I am now writing solely for the average citizen, people who are exposed to, and influenced by, the endless stream of propaganda from the media.

See that update for all data sources: search for “Sources”.

I caution people not to blindly embrace any “excess death” calculation. Excess deaths are always, without exception, given with respect to a model. That means the model is the most important thing.

Here is a plot of the all-cause weekly deaths for several years, including 2020 in bold red, and a simple model in black.

You can see the deaths follow a pattern, high in late fall and winter, and low in summer. The peak is caused by our voluntary lockdowns, where we all stay inside and spread bugs among ourselves. This is also the “solution” the government gave us for preventing the spread of bugs.

Anyway, you can see the steady increase in the lines year by year, each increasing by about the same average amount every week, changes which are largely due to population increase. Some years stick out more than ever, like 2018, which was a bad flu year (in winter).

The black line is a simple week-by-week extrapolation of this average increase (a prediction based on a regression of each weeks’ totals and year). This black line is a counterfactual: it didn’t happen. We have to believe it would have if the coronadoom never came around.

It does not appear to be wildly wrong, but there is no way to prove it. Nor is there any way to prove any model that projects counterfactuals, which is every excess death model. All we can do is look to external evidence and agree or disagree whether this model is a reasonable one. I think it is.

Leaving that aside for a moment, it’s plain this year had a lot of weekly deaths starting about week 14. Before that time, at the beginning of the year, weekly deaths were lower than several other years. After week 14 or so, we had a lot more. Up until week 42, when the numbers again fell below other years.

Recall the CDC is always late in counting deaths. They say they’re up to 8 weeks late, but experience shows they usually have almost all counted by 3 weeks. Hence the last three weeks are shown by black dots, so you can remind yourself these numbers will grow. The ones before that might also grow, but given the CDC’s history, likely not my much.

Reminder: these are deaths of any kind, including COVID, and the deaths caused by the “solution” to COVID, like suicides, missed cancers, heart attacks, and on and on.

One theory, given early and by now at least not implausible, was that COVID was killing people just a little earlier than would otherwise have died. Let’s explore that.

We saw that CDC said that 94% of deaths “involving” (their word) COVID had almost 3 serious comorbidities; plus most who died were old, north of 75. Here are the counts of numbers of dead (current as of 16 November night).

NUMBER OF DEATHS "INVOLVING" COVID BY AGE
                 Age  COVID
1           All ages 223984
2       Under 1 year     26
3          1–4 years     16
4         5–14 years     39
5        15–24 years    410
6        25–34 years   1725
7        35–44 years   4426
8        45–54 years  11740
9        55–64 years  28227
10       65–74 years  48363
11       75–84 years  59760
12 85 years and over  69252

For healthy people under, say, 44 years old, COVID was never scary. Or shouldn’t have been scary.

Put it into perspective. According to the CDC’s latest available figures for 2017, the suicide rate for 25-34 year olds was 17.5 per 100,000, 17.9 for 35-44 year old, and 20.2 for 45-54. These numbers have been steadily rising. For example, for 25-34 years olds in 2010 the rate was 14 per 100,000. Given the trend and the reported increase in suicides during lockdowns, all of these numbers are likely higher. But take the 2017 number as the same as this year. Then, using the same data as above (which also has population), we estimate:

ESTIMATED NUMBER OF DEATHS BY SUICIDE BY AGE
                 Age  SUICIDE
6        25–34 years   8040
7        35–44 years   7457
8        45–54 years   8257

Suicide is more dangerous than COVID in the young. Again, these are likely low by (extrapolating from the trend) about 10%, if not higher among the young because of the lockdowns. BMJ in October: Covid-19: Suicidal thoughts increased in young adults during lockdown, UK study finds. Et cetera.

With all these caveats, we have this chart, the cumulative excess deaths, found by subtracting the estimated counterfactual deaths from the actual cumulative all-cause deaths.

This is cumulative, meaning the end point is the estimate for the year.

Assuming the counterfactual would have been true absent COVID, excess deaths were lower than expected through the first week of April. Then they picked up as the virus and “solution” to the virus really kicked in.

They began falling again about a month ago. The dots are again there to show you that these numbers will rise. Of course, even that point a month ago might rise if the CDC digs up some more bodies.

However, suppose that number holds, and the model is good. Then we have had about 220,000 “excess” deaths, accepting the model. The number of CDC official deaths “involving” COVID at this point is 229,372. Close. But the CDC number doesn’t include deaths caused by “solutions”. Meaning real COVID deaths could be lower than the official number.

In other words, something like this theory might be true: Flu and pneumonia was very low at the beginning of the year, and deaths were down (which is certain), then COVID and COVID’s “solutions” hit (also certain). This killed a lot of people who might otherwise have died from flu or other causes earlier, and then it killed some who otherwise would have lived a bit longer this year (this is theory).

Flu, the CDC says, is almost non-existent, which is highly unlikely given its history. Meaning, perhaps, some deaths attributed to COVID are actually flu. This is probably why CDC stopped separate reporting of flu and pneumonia deaths.

Think: if flu was killing as many as usual, and COVID was separately killing at the rates the press insisted, then the all-cause deaths starting six weeks ago should have increased again. We should still be way above the black line, and not under it.

Here’s the Perspective Plot from yesterday, which proves the point again:

All this means we’re not in a usual seasonal pattern of spiking deaths in winter, which looks like it won’t be any worse than a typical bad flu year this winter.

Meaning we should give up our fear.

Only time will tell if this model and theory is correct.

Update Thread just seen.

To support this site and its wholly independent host using credit card or PayPal (in any amount) click here

Categories: Statistics

51 replies »

  1. How many times has joy going to comment on this? I’m betting 16. Anyone else. We can turn it into a game

  2. Joy is just passionate.

    Numbers mean nothing when dealing with a government-induced phobia. Insanity does not respond to reason. I’d say “by definition” but words have no real meaning any more either. You are living among evil people and people who have zero touch with reality who are following the evil people. The only way ever found to deal with this is to pretend to be as crazy as they are while moving as far away from humanity as possible. You can’t fix stupid, you can’t fix evil (that’s God’s problem) and you can’t fix apathy. As I have said before, the wheels are off the cliff. Braking is useless. The time action would have helped is long, long past. Hunker down, brace and hope for the best. (At some point, one realizes the game is over. Not everyone realizes this at the same time. So, continue with the numbers, Briggs. One day….)

  3. Hi Biggs, regarding flu testing, it really does look like flu is disappearing independent of test level. Below I list the country, # of test specimens, # of positives, and % positive first for 3-year average of years 2017 thru 2019, for weeks 40 thru 45. Then is listed the same but for 2020.

    I got tired of typing, so you’ll either see all that info listed in two lines (first is 2017-2019, then the same for 2020), then I switch to just the % positive information for comparison. For the Total, I go back to listing it more completely.

    Except for Canada which increased testing, the other countries did decrease testing, but you’ll see that’s not the point. One could still argue that maybe the more limited tests are coming from areas that don’t typically have much flu anyway, but that seems a little of a stretch to me for now.

    Canada
    Sp: 25710; Pos: 970; % Pos = 3.77%
    48363; 10; 0.02%

    China
    Sp: 84294; Pos: 3118: 3.70%
    58820; 3 5; 0.06%

    Denmark
    Spec: 3729; Pos: 55; 1.48%
    2074; 2; 0.10%

    France: 0.77%; 0.06% (Thru week 44)

    Germany: 2.33%; 0.00%

    Iceland: 5.74%; 0.00%

    Ireland: 1.91%; 0.00%

    Norway: 0.99%; 0.03%

    Russia: 0.15%; 0.00%

    Sweden: 1.22%; 0.07%

    US: 3.44%; 0.22% (thru week 43)

    Total
    Spec: 298322; Pos: 917; % Pos 3.07%
    221171; 222; 0.10%

    Source: Kyle Lamb of course, but WHO/FluNet; Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System

    apps.who.int/flumart/default?ReportNo=12

  4. Briggs, I hope my only typo was butchering your name. Your enemies are now going after your allies to sow discord.

  5. Briggs, I am broadly in agreement with you, but have some criticisms:

    On the killing people early explanation, if you analyze the NYC data, you can see a 20% post-covid mortality drop after the 10 weeks where it hit hard. This, if extended, would still take some years to account for the NYC peaks, which were much higher than in other places.

    Elsewhere, I don’t see the 20% drop, but the covid peaks are much lower outside NYC.

    So I think that the “would have died anyway” theory is falsified for NYC this year, on short timescales at least. On longer timescales, it’s self-evidently true, as covid is killing people in the highest mortality groups. But my lower bound for the timescale is 2-years or more, from the NYC data.

    A completely separate point, but I’ve seen claims that NYC’s nursing home policy was the cause of its especially high mortality. These don’t seem to hold up when you look at mortality in younger age groups, also much increased in NYC. I continue to wonder what the real cause of NYC’s outlier status is: 1) possible that NYC is not an outlier, but is what our courageous health authorities are protecting us from with their lockdowns [unlikely], 2) fraud [maybe], 3) treatment-caused [maybe], 4) a worse strain in NYC [quite possible], 5) Red Chinese agents coughing into air conditioners [not to be discounted], 6) ???

  6. If this virus had never been named and hyped, and was just treated as ordinary flu all along, and there wasn’t all the mass testing and politician/media-induced panic and fear-mongering, and no one knew any better, I bet no one would have even noticed it. It would have been no different than any other flu season, and soon forgotten, just like 2009, 2017 (which I’m told was a particularly serious flu season as well, though I don’t remember a word about it at the time) etc. All politician and and media hype – and mostly for ulterior and nefarious motives that have nothing to do with health.

    The only way this goes away is if people wake up and stop playing along with insane and dictatorial rules. and Stop participating in mass testing, especially if you have no symptoms. Stop pretending you need to “be careful” or worry about the “threat” every time you leave the house or interact with someone. If you’re that fearful and paranoid about life, then stay home, but quit ruining the world for everyone else.

    I dread even the simplest interactions any more because you never know when someone you meet will be a Covid panic freak upset about masks, etc. Very tiresome to ever bother leaving the house anymore except to go for a walk in the park. And I’ve avoided even the grocery store altogether since mid-July – just get everything delivered now. The only place of business I regularly go any more is the Chinese takeout down the street (I have to go in in there is no drive thru), since they don’t bother me about masks. I don’t even try going anywhere else any more in this climate of fear, insanity, and paranoia. Best just not to be forced to engage with insane people by avoiding them altogether.

  7. Interesting Off-Guradian article awildgoose. I’d seen things before questioning whether the alleged virus had ever even been isolated in a lab. “If these claims are accurate we can state that there is no evidence of a pandemic, merely the illusion of one.” – more or less what I’ve always thought, even if it is a truly separate and new virus. It would never have been noticed by the vast majority of people had it never been named and hyped so much by politicians and media. Entirely manufactured pandemic.

  8. Hi Xens, while I don’t have the NYC data, I do know that in, e.g., TN, there are large excess deaths among younger people, yet these are explicitly not accounted for by COVID deaths. They in fact must have another cause/s, such drug overdoses, which have shot up (pun intended?), suicides, etc. I think it would be very unusual if the young deaths accounted for a large or significant part of NYC’s or NY’s high COVID mortality, because it is well established at this point that it just isn’t that dangerous for younger people (below 70 yrs/ 50 yrs/ take your pick).

  9. ”In other words, something like this theory might be true: Flu and pneumonia was very low at the beginning of the year, and deaths were down (which is certain), then COVID and COVID’s “solutions” hit (also certain). This killed a lot of people who might otherwise have died from flu or other causes earlier, and then it killed some who otherwise would have lived a bit longer this year (this is theory).”

    So, the covid death count was likely increased both by “borrowing” from other death-cause categories and from moving other deaths up a few months. In addition, there were collateral deaths caused by corona-stupid. Sounds reasonable.

    But then the all-cause deaths number, over a full year, should show if there was an actual all-cause increase, as compared to other years, that might be attributed to covid alone. Test would be to take all-cause deaths from March 1st, 2020, to March 1st 2021, and compare that number to previous years.

    And if there is shown to be an actual increase in all-cause deaths over that crazy year the most likely cause won’t be covid but people sticking their heads in the oven trying to escape the big stupid.

  10. Dennis: ”Entirely manufactured pandemic.”

    Judging by my own experience, knowing nobody who has it, only few others by rumor, one 90 year old neighbor who may have died from it (or was it pneumonia?), I would have to agree. Were it not for the hype, this thing, whatever it may be, would have passed unnoticed. If the panic was simply the result of ignorance, incompetence, and garden variety venality, it should long ago been corrected based on more accurate information. But this persistent, deliberate campaign of terror serving the expressly stated goals of the globalist power elite, should not be mistaken for anything other than an attempted coup.

  11. Danish mask study is out! Masks were not found to be effective.

    Also, it’s been mentioned that the “adverse events” (i.e., bad things that happen when you have people wear masks all the time) they were going to measure according to their initial protocol aren’t listed in the final publication. There might be a “good” reason for this, but it is suspected that could have been part of the deal to get the study published. If you’re familiar with the drama of this study, you’ll understand this.

  12. Dean: Yes, agree. Had it never been named or deemed an unprecedented threat, those “Covid” deaths would have been labelled any one of the other common seasonal respiratory illnesses – flu, pneumonia, etc. – and caused hardly a blip in most people’s consciousness. Vastly oversold from the beginning to gin up insane levels of fear and hype as if this were some new Black Death.

    Matt: Where is the Danish mask study? I hadn’t seen that it was finally released, only that they have been looking for a publisher with the “courage” to do so? Or did they just release it on the web or something without a medical journal backing it?

  13. All,
    I don’t expect 2020 to have much of an excess death number, when all of the data has been collected. All cause mortality in the USA has been about 0.9% of the actual population each year for decades now. 0.9% of 331,000,000 (a recent UN estimate) is about 3 million. This number will only look large compared to older population estimates, which I’ve seen listed as 328 million.

  14. Dennis, I am with you on your description of how you deal with life these days. I could have written that myself.

    And yes, I would bet the house on your description of the virus hype.

    I know it is a deadly virus. Most all virus are so. My own outlook is this: I know of only a handful of people within my own world who have contracted it. In all of these instances, they had similar symptoms of the common flu. In my own community, life goes on (where allowed to). No piles of bodies in makeshift morgues, the hospitals are not under siege. They never were, except for self-induced ones.

    They did post signs in front of the hospitals that proclaimed “Heroes work here.”

    From my own definition of hero: If you call yourself a hero, you are automatically disqualified.

    That is all.

  15. That Off-Guardian article reminds me of what I knew many years ago. Very short nucleic acid sequences are not unique. Short ones are somewhat more unique, meaning less overlap. Only very long ones may be said to be actually unique, and even then, they will overlap with others.

    That electron microscopy picture also suggests category errors may occur in identifying viruses from exosome and intracellular vesicles (Golgi apparatus and transport to the surface for excretion) as well as pinocytosis or phagocytosis for ingestion.

    Ultracentrifugation and x-ray crystallography techniques might be able to help. These will be expensive to do, from both time and labor perspectives.

    I also do not consider viruses to be living. Parasites, yes, living, no; for they can’t do metabolism on their own.

  16. Great job on the site. The other big media push is hospitalizations. Surging hospitalizations, blah blah. Any way to get an “excess mortality” type graph / analysis of hospital utilization over time. Kind of suspicious that hospital utilization is rising at the same time it always does, with nary a flu victim in sight.

  17. Thanks for the link cdquarles. A shame they left out the “adverse events” (something that needs more attention also among the media hype about how great masks are – my mom, for example, complains that she gets dizzy from the mask at the store – I tell her to just get everything delivered like I do but she still prefers to go herself). At this point I doubt it will do much good – the narrative has been decided and the powers that be will just claim masks work because they want it to be so, and this study, like other past mask studies that don’t give the PC answer, will simply be dismissed in the mainstream media and by politicians – if noted at all.

    Just yesterday the CDC chairman claimed that masks are the best defense we have, and probably even better than a vaccine! (Yet the CDC, Fauci, Surgeon General, WHO, etc. as late as May and June were still saying – in line with previous studies – that generalized public mask-wearing, was ineffective and not recommended as a means to prevent or slow spread of viruses). Utterly grotesque the way scientific rigor and sound judgement have been subordinated to political whims and diktats (and mostly by those who claim most vociferously to follow “The Science”).

    I’m with you on the “heroes” thing Jerry. People with serious illnesses are having trouble in many countries getting basic treatment, screenings, surgeries, etc., because of the way medical resources have been overly shifted toward this one flu-like virus, yet we’re supposed to clap and sing the praises of nurses and doctors doing the jobs the signed up for as if they were equivalent to “frontline” soldiers in a war. Obscene.

  18. Jerry: People who call themselves heros WHEN THEY ARE JUST DOING THEIR JOB THEY CHOSE disgust me. People who call these people heros disgust me. It’s called DOING YOUR JOB. How sad is it that Americans are so big into NOT DOING YOUR JOB that anyone who does their job is a hero. I think we see the root of the whole problem here.

    Note: You’re a hero when you run into a burning building to save someone and your day job is accountant. It’s not the same as if your day job is fireman.

    Honestly, the praise is just to keep the FEAR alive. That’s it.

  19. “Honestly, the praise is just to keep the FEAR alive. That’s it.”

    Indeed…that is the goal of the psychotic globalist Great Reset elite, and that’s what they need to keep their agenda on track.

    In 1988 Jesse Jackson’s campaign mantra was “Keep Hope Alive.”

    We’ve gone from that to politicians and media across the spectrum adopting “Keep Fear Alive” as their way to assert and maintain control in order to pursue their agendas.

  20. @Matt,

    It’s unlikely that drug overdoses or suicides would shoot up specifically at covid peak mortality, and in proportion to the mortality peak. The covid peak in NYC is something like 40x normal deaths for those weeks, and equivalent to decades worth of flu deaths. It really is a nasty bug, and was especially nasty (by a factor of 8?) in NYC. The lockdowns are insane, of course, but at the same time it would be wrong to minimize this.

    Here are the all-cause mortality peaks by age group for NYC:

    https://imgur.com/7KjQP7T

    Here are some calculated data about the 10-week death period in NYC, including the post-covid mortality numbers I referred to in my previous post.

    https://imgur.com/UvwZjpN

  21. Hi Xens, I went to the links. Can you give me a link to the source for them so I can be more confident in what I’m looking at? I’m mentally integrating the peaks in the first one and not getting the presumed death toll, but I want to make sure I’m not mistaken. I also have a concern about the second link’s chart, which I mention below.

    -I somewhat agree that the suicides/drug overdoses wouldn’t necessarily shoot up “specifically at covid peak mortality”, but there’s a bit of wiggle room there since there were also lockdowns at that time, and lots of fear (so staying away from hospitals, etc.). So the time correlation is “blurry”. However, it would be “in proportion to the mortality peak” if it was in fact a major contributor to mortality. I’d have to see the accompanying death certificates, and it also occurs to me to wonder whether there is a high concentration of, e.g., specialty hospitals or trauma centers in that area, that might account for some of this.

    -“That it’s 40x normal deaths for those weeks” is not surprising given we don’t usually have flu seasons in those weeks. Maybe I’m misinterpreting what you’re saying here, because now it seems to be moving into excess deaths territory.

    -In the second link, in the chart I’m seeing what again appears to be a conflation of mortality with excess deaths. Excess deaths are time bound, and are in relation to previous times at some periodic interval (in this case, 1 yr). The problem I see is something akin to what Briggs addressed in his post about misinterpreting z-scores, which can be found in a post of his from some months back (search for “z-scores”). If you go back and look at that post, can you see where I think the problem lies? Now, it’s not z-scores specifically (as that’s not what’s in the chart!), but the idea is exactly the same. Is that concern misplaced?

    -Finally, I wouldn’t say I’m minimizing anything. I’m simply exhibiting a skepticism that this disease is somehow very deadly to a young crowd, which would be a major outlier (which isn’t to say NYC isn’t a major outlier!). Still, even taking the charts from the first link at face value, it would appear that (aside from the deaths of people under 45 being a very minor contribution to the total, which I think gets to your original point about whether it’s NYC’s nursing home policy that’s at the heart of even a big proportion of this), that the death total is about the same across all other age groups (excepting children). To me that’s just odd.

    Thanks for the engagement, and I’d love to continue this further!

  22. @Matt,

    These are my own charts from the US CDC Excess Mortality data for NYC. You can download it here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    The first charts graph the raw mortality data for NYC by age group. You can get a similar chart on the big viewer on the above page. Only difference is that mine show the different age groups individually.

    There is *nothing* similar to peaks like these in recent years for which we have data. Mortality peaks from flu, etc., are a matter of 10-20% for a few weeks. Not 800%. Covid stands out in the data, and in NYC is a factor of 8x everywhere else. Euromomo has good data on this sort of thing as well.

    I’m not conflating mortality with excess deaths. I’m *comparing* excess deaths to normal mortality, to give a person numerical context. Covid in NYC was similar to adding 3-6 months to the year for most age groups. The number of deaths, trending younger instead of older, would add many years of mortality to 20-somethings.

    I did not mean to say that you were minimizing this (I did not even think it). It was meant as a general statement.

    Yes, the NYC data is very odd! Something different happened there. Perhaps the same thing as in Wuhan or Northern Italy, maybe London, but perhaps not.

  23. Master Briggs, can we get the deaths ‘involving covid’ by date. Since a good friend – a committed CNN watcher, mask wearer and Biden voter – claimed death rate was 9%. I laughed but did not even try to get him to look at the numbers.

    So, I went to CNN.com for Sept 1 – 6,000,000 cases, 184,000 deaths. Nov 17 – 11,000,000 cases, 247,000.
    (63,000 deaths) / (5,000,000 cases since Sept 1) = .0126 or 1.26%. I.e 98.74% survival rate. And this is CNN numbers.

    I have yet to send this to him. Would like to see the 63k number by age group.

  24. Gamecock,

    Go to yesterday’s update and look for sources. CDC has only weekly deaths. COVID Tracking Project has daily, but they’re numbers are always much larger; they have a different definition of “involving”.

  25. Someone needs to start looking at the impact of a worldwide loss
    of 400 million jobs, (per the Swiss data). There’ll be plenty of tables
    and graphs from that to keep all of the bean counters busy for years
    to come. I know it’s callow and crass but does anyone know if mortuary
    stock is listed somewhere on the exchanges?

  26. The flu positivity rate numbers raise my suspicions. They are absurdly low; even if flu were gone entirely one would expect to get more numbers than they are from false positives alone. They don’t even have enough to account for the test’s error rate, for which a pretty wide range is given. That seems… weird.

  27. Veronica, you aren’t kidding:

    According to here:
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

    The positive test rate is .2% for this week and .3% cumulatively. But according to here:

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/diagnosis/overview-testing-methods.htm

    The false negative for common tests varies, but a 5% false negative rate seems to be the best among common tests. If literally no one had the flu we should still see at least 5% positive tests, but it is vanishingly small below that.

  28. “and testing doesn’t create positive cases, it reveals them”

    Well, not if the test is unreliable, has a high false postive rate, and is being used for purposes for which it was not intended (i.e. PCR tests were never intended to be used for diagnostic purposes – something the creator explicitly warned against. See also studies on the PCR test-created Whooping Cough Pseudo-Epidemic of 2004 in New England. This study should be more well known by everyone across the board – certainly by medical professionals and people like Fraudci – and mass PCR testing for Covid should never have been allowed to take place, and should be halted immediately).

    Just came back from a client meeting, and see the PA governor now purports to mandate masks in people’s homes as well. We are very close to mass armed insurrection being the only viable option against the ever-increasing insanity and tyranny being imposed on us everywhere. All people of conscience have amoral obligation not to follow such inane, illegal, and immoral decrees.

  29. Addendum to above: And just saw when I came back that the governor in my state of KY has now re-closed bars and restaurants to in-house dining. What a psychopath. No evidence that bars and restaurants are a particular locus of infection (why not just close hospitals? – more people get it in hospital than they do going out to eat!) for this phony PCR test-crested pseudo-pandemic anyway, but yeah, let’s destroy the rest of businesses and lives ready hanging by a thread because of the first shutdowns, so this piece of garbage pantywaist governor can pose as “doing something” to “save lives” from a flu bug. If the first shutdown didn’t stop a virus from doing what viruses do, what makes this moron think destroying what’s left of these businesses during holiday season will? Sickening.

    What’s worse is the the GOP controlled state legislature does nothing to stop these continued dictatorial actions by an idiot governor with a messiah-complex. It’s been bad enough this year with moronic politicians overreacting to a flu-bug and destroying lives and well-being everywhere, but now we have a stolen election on top of it that would empower and dementia-riddled psychopath hell-bent on even more destructive policies! Full blown insurrection and revolution to eliminate every last one of these one of these scum politicians for their crimes against humanity may soon be the only option left.

  30. Funny that one by one, all your projections/predictions prove false… but hey don’t let the facts get in the way of your committed narrative; ya got books to sell!!

  31. Untreated depression is the number one cause for suicide. Over 90 percent of people who die by suicide have depression. See:

    https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/suicide/symptoms-causes/syc-20378048

    Suicide is the 10th leading cause of death in the US. The suicide rate for 2018 was ~14.2 per 100,000, or ~48,350. This stat is underestimated because many deaths (by drugs, alcohol, and other causes) are de facto suicides but not reported as such. See:

    https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/suicide.shtml

    From that site: Suicide was the second leading cause of death among individuals between the ages of 10 and 34, and the fourth leading cause of death among individuals between the ages of 35 and 54.

    Commenters ask why would suicides would track with Covid deaths?

    Why wouldn’t they? Why wouldn’t people with depression become more suicidal when confronted with a pandemic, and/or fear of a pandemic, and/or the massive emotional strain from lockdowns, collapse of their support groups, general societal unhappiness, loss of hope, etc.?

  32. Uncle Mike, yes
    It is something not to be toyed with or joked about/threatened without being taken seriously.

    It ruins lives of those left behind, leaves eternal questions unanswered
    Hug for Uncle Mike

  33. In the face of all that has happened this year, it’s easy to become depressed. Hard not to, actually, regardless of your party or station in life. No one will argue with you about that. Your anger and grief are justified.

    There are no easy cures, either. Even if you want to be cured. Happiness and hope are fleeting, retreating, and depleting. The future seems bleak. Words are weak.

    But you have to try. Your life, your very life, depends on it. You must seek solace, hope, maybe even joy, as remote as those things might appear at the moment.

    As corny as it sounds, God is love. Meditate on that. Jesus is trying to save you. Trust Him. When all else fails, He won’t let you down. I promise. More words, I know. But you’ve got to try. Trust Him. Hope is not lost. Open your heart. The problems of the world will not be solved, but your secret self will find the strength to fight the darkness and find the light. I promise you.

  34. If you look at the following web page, about halfway down, the graph entitled Weekly number of deaths “from all causes”.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    You can clearly see evidence of “people dying one year earlier” due to a more lethal flu season in 2018. I use the the end of the flu season to define the year. The graph shows no spike in all cause deaths during the 2019 flu season.

    Of course, other people (such as Sweden’s Minister of Health) look at the lack of 2019 flu deaths as “dry timber” and say those people lived a year longer than normal.

  35. To Dan Idrather
    Instead of rhetoric check out the data the compares apples to apples.
    Pennsylvania annual deaths in vehicle accidents age 20-44 = 972
    Pennsylvania annualized WITH COVID-19 deaths age 20-44 = 129

  36. Reasons why NYC was so different than the rest of country.

    Packed nightclubs, crowded subways, lots of elevators, more office workers/square foot.
    So, basically NYC specializes in the three C’s: Crowded Places, Close contact settings, and Confined spaces with poor ventilation.
    Also, in many instances Long Term Care Facilities (of which Nursing Homes are a subset) are co-located with short term rehab facilities.

    The demographics of patients with severe symptoms/death was younger, but nearly all of those younger were people who emigrated to the USA as adults. The villages they came from had little contact with people spreading coronaviruses from Asia, so they had virtually no T-Cell immune response to this “Novel” virus.

    You saw the same thing with all the meat packing plants with lots of “cases”.

    Why do Public Health officials still not point out this group as being especially vulnerable?

  37. To cdquarles:
    >>> I also do not consider viruses to be living. Parasites, yes, living, no; for they can’t do metabolism on their own.

    Very interesting, so it should not be any surprise that the two best drugs for treating COVID-19, especially early, are anti-parasitic drugs. Also, both treat parasites that are introduced into humans by insect bites.

    The off-label prescription drugs are Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin.

    Yet once again, our vaunted Public Health officials are keeping this information from the public.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *