To all those emailing: yes, I’m working on voter fraud, behind the scenes mostly.
Here are some more complicated reasons not to fear the coronadoom. I didn’t want to put these in the main update, which I am now writing solely for the average citizen, people who are exposed to, and influenced by, the endless stream of propaganda from the media.
See that update for all data sources: search for “Sources”.
I caution people not to blindly embrace any “excess death” calculation. Excess deaths are always, without exception, given with respect to a model. That means the model is the most important thing.
Here is a plot of the all-cause weekly deaths for several years, including 2020 in bold red, and a simple model in black.
You can see the deaths follow a pattern, high in late fall and winter, and low in summer. The peak is caused by our voluntary lockdowns, where we all stay inside and spread bugs among ourselves. This is also the “solution” the government gave us for preventing the spread of bugs.
Anyway, you can see the steady increase in the lines year by year, each increasing by about the same average amount every week, changes which are largely due to population increase. Some years stick out more than ever, like 2018, which was a bad flu year (in winter).
The black line is a simple week-by-week extrapolation of this average increase (a prediction based on a regression of each weeks’ totals and year). This black line is a counterfactual: it didn’t happen. We have to believe it would have if the coronadoom never came around.
It does not appear to be wildly wrong, but there is no way to prove it. Nor is there any way to prove any model that projects counterfactuals, which is every excess death model. All we can do is look to external evidence and agree or disagree whether this model is a reasonable one. I think it is.
Leaving that aside for a moment, it’s plain this year had a lot of weekly deaths starting about week 14. Before that time, at the beginning of the year, weekly deaths were lower than several other years. After week 14 or so, we had a lot more. Up until week 42, when the numbers again fell below other years.
Recall the CDC is always late in counting deaths. They say they’re up to 8 weeks late, but experience shows they usually have almost all counted by 3 weeks. Hence the last three weeks are shown by black dots, so you can remind yourself these numbers will grow. The ones before that might also grow, but given the CDC’s history, likely not my much.
Reminder: these are deaths of any kind, including COVID, and the deaths caused by the “solution” to COVID, like suicides, missed cancers, heart attacks, and on and on.
One theory, given early and by now at least not implausible, was that COVID was killing people just a little earlier than would otherwise have died. Let’s explore that.
We saw that CDC said that 94% of deaths “involving” (their word) COVID had almost 3 serious comorbidities; plus most who died were old, north of 75. Here are the counts of numbers of dead (current as of 16 November night).
NUMBER OF DEATHS "INVOLVING" COVID BY AGE Age COVID 1 All ages 223984 2 Under 1 year 26 3 1–4 years 16 4 5–14 years 39 5 15–24 years 410 6 25–34 years 1725 7 35–44 years 4426 8 45–54 years 11740 9 55–64 years 28227 10 65–74 years 48363 11 75–84 years 59760 12 85 years and over 69252
For healthy people under, say, 44 years old, COVID was never scary. Or shouldn’t have been scary.
Put it into perspective. According to the CDC’s latest available figures for 2017, the suicide rate for 25-34 year olds was 17.5 per 100,000, 17.9 for 35-44 year old, and 20.2 for 45-54. These numbers have been steadily rising. For example, for 25-34 years olds in 2010 the rate was 14 per 100,000. Given the trend and the reported increase in suicides during lockdowns, all of these numbers are likely higher. But take the 2017 number as the same as this year. Then, using the same data as above (which also has population), we estimate:
ESTIMATED NUMBER OF DEATHS BY SUICIDE BY AGE Age SUICIDE 6 25–34 years 8040 7 35–44 years 7457 8 45–54 years 8257
Suicide is more dangerous than COVID in the young. Again, these are likely low by (extrapolating from the trend) about 10%, if not higher among the young because of the lockdowns. BMJ in October: Covid-19: Suicidal thoughts increased in young adults during lockdown, UK study finds. Et cetera.
With all these caveats, we have this chart, the cumulative excess deaths, found by subtracting the estimated counterfactual deaths from the actual cumulative all-cause deaths.
This is cumulative, meaning the end point is the estimate for the year.
Assuming the counterfactual would have been true absent COVID, excess deaths were lower than expected through the first week of April. Then they picked up as the virus and “solution” to the virus really kicked in.
They began falling again about a month ago. The dots are again there to show you that these numbers will rise. Of course, even that point a month ago might rise if the CDC digs up some more bodies.
However, suppose that number holds, and the model is good. Then we have had about 220,000 “excess” deaths, accepting the model. The number of CDC official deaths “involving” COVID at this point is 229,372. Close. But the CDC number doesn’t include deaths caused by “solutions”. Meaning real COVID deaths could be lower than the official number.
In other words, something like this theory might be true: Flu and pneumonia was very low at the beginning of the year, and deaths were down (which is certain), then COVID and COVID’s “solutions” hit (also certain). This killed a lot of people who might otherwise have died from flu or other causes earlier, and then it killed some who otherwise would have lived a bit longer this year (this is theory).
Flu, the CDC says, is almost non-existent, which is highly unlikely given its history. Meaning, perhaps, some deaths attributed to COVID are actually flu. This is probably why CDC stopped separate reporting of flu and pneumonia deaths.
Think: if flu was killing as many as usual, and COVID was separately killing at the rates the press insisted, then the all-cause deaths starting six weeks ago should have increased again. We should still be way above the black line, and not under it.
Here’s the Perspective Plot from yesterday, which proves the point again:
All this means we’re not in a usual seasonal pattern of spiking deaths in winter, which looks like it won’t be any worse than a typical bad flu year this winter.
Meaning we should give up our fear.
Only time will tell if this model and theory is correct.
Update Thread just seen.
Same for me. My daughter(17) committed suicide. She had issues before but I believe that the social isolation pushed her over the edge. My condolences for your loss.
What these politicians and public health "experts" are doing are human rights crimes.
— Ictu Oculi (@IctuOculi100) November 18, 2020
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