Statistics

It’s All Politics Now — Coronavirus Update XXXVI

BOOK UPDATE

YouTube is already whacking our interviews about the book. Whacked one clean out of here. Ha ha ha! Get the book our Tech Lords don’t want you to read—before it’s too late!

NY Post: Here’s how the media is misreporting COVID-19’s death toll in America

Federalist: Herd Immunity To COVID Is Not Reckless. It Would Protect The Vulnerable

Newsweek: What We Must Learn from the COVID-19 Response

Anthony Fauci Should Listen to His Earlier Self: Don’t Trust Computer Models

The Tom Woods Show: Ep. 1753 The Price of Panic: How the Tyranny of Experts Turned a Pandemic Into a Catastrophe YouTube censored the original version,

The Bill Walton Show: Episode 97: “Paying the Price of Panic” with Dr Jay Richards.

The Idea for Lockdowns Started With a High School Science Project

IT’S ALL POLITICS NOW

He elsewhere called the Fabulous Fauci an “idiot” and said “he seems to get more airtime than anybody since the late, great, Bob Hope…” which if you’re old is funny.

As a for-example, Wales is locking down, again, but not until Friday. They had 3 attributed coronadoom deaths. Hundreds of other kinds of deaths, as do we (see next section).

Here’s the true state of the coronadoom crisis in Ireland:

Yes, that’s a 0. This is, now, all about political control, and nothing else. Flaming idiocy is a possible explanation, too, but consider: our rulers consistently tell us how smart they are. They can’t be wrong about this.

This is as hilariously false as any major media headline. The virus is killing those sick 75+ folks, most of whom now longer work. The lockdowns stop people from earning their daily bread. Now this person must know this, and so is willing to either lie to herself — or to us.

FATALITY RATES

You hear a lot of infection fatality rate, which is criminally confused with case fatality rate, but the most interesting and useful number is the population fatality rate (from CDC).

Here it is across various ages, for both the coronadoom and all other causes except for the doom. Population fatality rate: the number of dead and divide by the population.

Notice how no matter how old people are, they most likely died of something other than the doom? And that for people under 65 or so, there is really nothing to worry about?

Here’s another (quick) way to look at this:

Just 0.00052% of infants died in 2020 (up until last week) of the doom, whereas 0.29% died of causes other than coroandoom. In other words, infants are roughly 565 times more likely to have died of something other than the doom.

You can see the rest. Even for those 85 years and over, only 0.89% died of coronadoom, whereas 8.38% died of something else. Again, the oldest are 9.4 times more likely to die of something other than the doom.

Make that were. These are old numbers. The trend, as we’ll see below, is for the bug to become an even less important killer than other causes.

FLU WARNING!

I said this last week: “I repeat my fear that with the ridiculous and increasing levels of testing, the regular cold and flu season—and its associated infections, hospitalizations, and deaths—will be used to juice the panic. Be watchful for this.”

I was right. Here is the WHO’s global flu tracker. Flu has disappeared. It’s a miracle!

Or those (or many) with flu are testing positive for the doom, and flu is forgotten.

Remember when numbers go up on the doom, as they will in the late fall and winter, when we all go into our voluntary lockdowns due to the cold—the best way to spread the bugs—that flu will at least sometimes be mistaken for the doom to keep the panic going.

See also below about the percent dead by flu+pneumonia every week.

MASKS

I want to have regular mask links, in some small effort to kill this new religion. Masks are a visible sign of membership in the cult, allowing its puritans to harass heathens into converting.

Mask Madness — Our Latest Moral Panic, and Take Your Masks Off: That’s What THE Science Says. Both contain many, many links to evidence showing mask ineffectiveness.

Coronavirus: Face masks could increase risk of infection, medical chief warns. “For the average member of the public walking down a street, it is not a good idea” says Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer.

Masks Don’t Work: a Review of Science Relevant to Covid-19 Social Policy

World’s Top Epidemiologists – Masks Don’t Work!

Past blast: “The masks, contrary to expectation, were worn cheerfully and universally, and also, contrary to expectation of what should follow under such circumstances, no effect on the epidemic curve was to be seen. Something was plainly wrong with our hypotheses.”

The Fabulous Fauci—remember him? the guy who said no more handshakes ever?—said masks into 2022. But we also saw him say, many times, masks don’t work. What a publicity hound!

Twitter removes top White House coronavirus adviser tweet claiming masks don’t work. Big Tech demands your obedience.

NYT: Masks are freedom (I kid you not).

THE NUMBERS

Sources: daily tests, CDC official toll number one, number two (the old weekly file, now suspect).

Here is the number of daily tests:

Testing still is at ridiculous levels, still accounting for the “surge” in “new” “cases”. NOT cases, but positive tests. We’ll know the panic is subsiding when these test numbers decrease.

Here’s the CDC weekly attributed coronadoom deaths:

Had a good question on Twitter when I posted this last night as a sneak peek. Person wanted to know if deaths would go to 0. I said no. Just like flu, this bug will always be with us. We will, though, someday stop panicking about it, like we don’t panic about flu.

Here are the CDC official weekly all cause death counts. As always, last three weeks are dots, it takes up to eight weeks to get all counts, but most are in by three. Dashed line is all cause minus attributed coronadoom.

Same problem with week 42 in the second official file. It still cuts off in 2019. So I’m still using week 38. (See last week for explanation.)

In any case, there is no longer any crisis. But “The ‘darkest’ period of the coronavirus pandemic is still to come, warns top infectious-disease doctor.” This “doctor” confuses cases with positive tests, too.

Sure, the doom will peak back up in the winter, as will flu, forever and ever, but so what? A zero-tolerance policy on deaths is insane—in the full meaning of that word.

Here’s the percent dead of flu + pneumonia and the doom, recalling the flu numbers cut off in week 38. Why, CDC, why?

I repeat: did you know flu+pneumonia killed so many? No? Maybe that’s why you’re not panicked full time forever.

To support this site and its wholly independent host using credit card or PayPal (in any amount) click here

Categories: Statistics

85 replies »

  1. What deadly pandemic? Here are the facts reported by the CDC:

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

    2017 total all-cause deaths: 2,813,503
    2018 total all-cause deaths: 2,839,205
    As of 10/19/2020: 2,246,171 (Only 6,729 flu deaths? Really?)
    Multiplying by 1.25 (day 293/366 = 1.2491) gets us to: 2,807,713

    To put us on track for 3,000,000 deaths (that’s only an extra 160,000 due to COVID), we’d have to already be at: 2,400,000 deaths.

    Let’s look at it another way. We’re averaging 7,666 deaths per day so far. To add another 160,000 deaths, the CDC’s reporting would have to be off by 21 days. Three whole weeks. This is in a time when the news broadcasts daily death totals by state and as a whole for the nation.

    Of course, the CDC says there have been 206,172 COVID deaths. Assuming there isn’t a single new death blamed on COVID for the rest of the year (hah!), our death toll should be approximately 3,045,000. So we should be at an all-cause total of 2,436,000 as of October 19. We’re only 189,829 deaths short of that number. That’s 25 days of deaths. Is the CDC really three and a half weeks behind in their reporting? I seriously doubt that.

  2. No extraordinary measures affecting the total population are taken concerning the approximately 3 million deaths that occur every year in the United States. Why did this happen with Covid with a death rate equal to a bad flu year? The only reasons I can think of are two:
    1. Test the effectiveness and ramifications of using totalitarian methods in preparation for a future a globalist totalitarian government.
    2. Destroy Donald Trump’s election chances of winning re-election. Without Covid he would have won easily.

  3. Michael Dowd: And you win with #1. This is a test of STUPID. And it’s obviously showing that stupid is rampant and people can be turned into quivering jelly using nothing more than made-up numbers and a respiratory virus.
    As for Trump, why involve the whole world? I don’t think this about Trump at all. It’s about world domination and the Overlords are WINNING. Stupid has consequences.

    ALL: Of course, humans were stupid sheep for most of their history and considering that to maintain freedom, Americans would have had to get off their backsides, RAISED THEIR CHILDREN and not given those brats to the government, etc, it’s truly amazing we’ve made it this far. Humans are basically lazy creatures. If there were no God, we’d be extinct by now. So, teach your brats that hell and damnation of the Overlords is the way to live because that’s what you’ve willed them. Again, without God, any species that so despised its offspring would be gone by now.

  4. Thanks Sheri. Three of my most accomplished kids have bought into the scamdemic and refuse to even look at,much less consider, the actual facts about the true impact of the virus. We “have had words” over this with resulting alienation. And they have the same negative feeling about Trump as they do about those who question the government reaction to the virus. Progressive thinking is reality denial.

  5. It’s been all about politics ever since the Machiavellians figured out that the sheeple could be controlled with by fear of coronadoom.

  6. And if Biden/Harris are elected we can be certain the insanity of this new Branch Covidian cult will continue indefinitely, and get even worse.

    I had someone tell me at another site the other day that even if they don’t do much, masks are no big deal to him – it’s “nice” after all and shows you “care about others” – and he’s confident that by the middle of next summer – 9 months away! – he’ll have a vaccine and will be allowed to stop wearing a mask. These morons are fine with it all. They love Big Brother.

    Every day the insanity just gets worse and worse, even as data makes it even more clear that as a medical matter this virus is essentially a non–factor now – No worse than ordinary flu. WTF are they smoking in Ireland, UK, esp. Wales, Australia, etc.? Absolutely criminal actions by their political leaders. And the US media treats the criminal governor of NY as some sort of leadership hero, helping promote his self-congratulatory book.

    If this madness doesn’t end soon, and Biden/Harris win, I’m certain I’m not long for this world. It’s just more intolerable every day trying to live in this ever stupider world.

  7. Dennis

    Branch Covidian – that’s good

    On YouTube check out Computing Forever for his take on Ireland’s insanity

  8. @McChuck,
    Raw all cause mortality has been about 0.9% of the true population each year for quite some time. Given that our current true population is probably a bit more than 330 million, seeing 3 million deaths by December 31, 2020 just before midnight wouldn’t be far off and I wouldn’t call it excess deaths.

  9. In MN the median age for death is still between 80 and 84 years old.

    Months back I talked about how the total number of deaths for those 29 years old or younger was 5. Guess what? It’s still 5. Literally no one has died with a “COVID attributed death” in that age range in the last two months at least. Or for another number, the number of people of age 100+ who have a death blamed on the Wuhan flu is in excess of all the deaths blamed on it in the 0-44 age range.

    MN Department of Health stopped publishing information about Influenza at May 16th. Before that point they had published an update every week. According to that last report there had been virtually no flu activity for 6 weeks before the update, despite there being at least 50 hospitalizations per week in a similar time frame in every year since 2014. They say that there may be inaccuracies due to late reporting in the “current week” but this doesn’t explain a 6 week abnormality.

    Relatives are already talking about cutting off all travel throughout the holiday season. No thanksgiving, no Christmas. Some are even wondering about Easter.

  10. What’s hilarious is watching people twisting themselves into knots trying to explain WHY flu disappeared. “Perhaps the two viruses can’t coexist.” Like colds and flus cant coexist? Never mind…

    What’s also hilarious, or maybe just sad, is the fact that masks are considered the cutting edge of science now. If they were really so great, you’d think we’d have figured it out fifty plus years ago, no? It’s not like they’re a marvel of modern biomedical engineering.

  11. I’m kinda surprised, with all the talk about IFR or CFR.

    In 2018 there were 10 MILLION flu related visits to DRs, ERs or Hospitalizations. That would be over a six-seven month period?

    Even counting not necessarily cases/infections for Covid, those numbers are still under 9 MILLION over 9 months ?

    The CFR or IFR looks to be about 3 times that of the 2018 flu (but that was with a vaccine)

  12. Branch Covidian what a hoot I’m stealing it…who said genius was dead?
    Dennis can be found alive and well live on Brigg’s blog.

  13. Another good way to look at this is from the following link: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate.
    When you look at the overall trend of death rate over time (1950-2020), 2020 is really not much different of an increase in all cause deaths that has been occurring for the past several years (since 2013). As we (the sane people on this blog) have known since many months ago the deaths attributed to COVID would have occurred this year anyway.
    Briggs – maybe you can paste the graph…pretty powerful when you look at it this way.

  14. Sign and countersign for the Branch Covidians:

    “May the Fauci be with you”

    “Live life in fear”

  15. Sheri: “RAISED THEIR CHILDREN”

    Madam. One may raise chickens, but one rears children. The improper use of English is a major vector of COVID infection. Please, wear your masks, people, and remember to change your underwear, daily.

  16. Confused about 2020 deaths. I continue to read that we’re up over 300k over five year average. I think Ethical Skeptic is projecting even more than that.

  17. Dale, caution; you can easily get COVID from infected Briggs commenters. Especially those who, inadvertently, misuse the English language. Changing your underwear and trimming your nose hair will boost immunity.

    Trust me, I am an expert.

  18. @Ye Olde Statistician –
    I couldn’t find the 2019 data in the amount of time I was willing to spend on the subject, especially since the point has been made. The CDC doesn’t make their useful data summaries easy to find. They’re buried under/behind garbage statistics and mostly pointless charts.

  19. McChuck and Dale

    The October 20th All Cause is 2.256 million (now we know it’s off by at least 3 weeks and probably 6 weeks

    So let’s apply this death count to October 1st (over estimated but useful). extrapolating 2256 from Oct 1 to Dec 31 gets us just over 3 million (over estimate but probably not more than a few 10,000). Final guess 2.95. 100-150 thousand more than McChuck’s 2017 and 218 values

    Remember the recurring theme!
    How manof these “excess” deaths were from Covid and how many were due to the “response” to Covid

  20. Minnesota state government announced today that telecommunication should be the standard way to work through June 2021. They say that there are provisions to change if the situation does, though it’s hard to imagine this means “we might reduce restrictions early” rather than “we might extend restrictions indefinitely.”

    There is a big panic about a large “spike” in deaths, since the highest number of deaths in 1 day were reported today. However, this comes after a couple of low reports making it more likely a timing issue. The 7 day rolling average did slightly go up two weeks ago but otherwise has remained consistent. I expect to have very low reported deaths in the next three days, at which point there is a freak out about high “cases.”

    On a national level, remember how at the start of the September, the IHME made a big deal about we were going to have 400,000 deaths in the US by January 1? Yeah, they’ve downgraded that to 390,000… by Feburary 1. At January 1 it’s down to 320,000. Even if we ignore all of their recommendations, don’t use masks, and don’t do any lockdowns they only predict 340,000 deaths (previously they had predicted 600,000 deaths in that scenario). They still claim that sub 260,000 deaths is virtually impossible, even with the perfect precautions, so if we end up anywhere close to that count they’ve been debunked about as thoroughly as they can be. But in that case the story won’t be about their failure, it will be about their prediction that 2 million people will die in the US by the end of 2021.

  21. Haven’t interacted with you idiots in a while.

    So where you all on all cause mortality for 2020?

    Right at about 3m? Good to see you idiots are alive and well.

    Ask mr Briggs to explain why YoY increase in gross mortality is highest in % terms of any year in American history

    Oh wait I forgot you idiots believe the “lockdowns” cause the excess mortality.

  22. Special prizes for John B

    You people are so dumb it hurts! Please post your real name so we can look up what you do in real life

    Hey John B, what are the all cause deaths for 2020?

  23. Go choke on your face muzzle, Tyler.

    You no doubt think it great that 4 infants were denied life saving health care in Australia recently and died because of draconian lockdown travel restrictions that prevented them crossing state borders to get care they needed. All because of massive fear and insane laws over a virus with an IFR in the range of godda*n flu!!!!! Just a few of the many excess deaths caused by lockdowns.

    All of you Covid Cultists make me f-ing sick. What an evil insane world. Run by and for idiots and as*holes.

  24. Projection much?

    As well all know, even though excess deaths are way up—most in modern memory—thank God all cause mortality for children is flat to down in most countries.

    Hopefully it remains that way and kids can get back to school if they are not already back, something I’m personally very in favor of.

    Have a good day

  25. All kids should already be back to school (my private school nieces are), and in fact everyone should be back to normal for everything, period.

    I’m “projecting” nothing. Just pointing out what f-ing evil insanity you and the other Branch Covidian Cultists are wreaking on the world.

    Now, go choke on your dirty face diaper.

  26. John B, thanks. I see the 2.256 million too. Just don’t understand where people are getting 300+k excess deaths from.

  27. Tyler’s right though. This is a uniquely pernicious killer plague the likes of which we’ve never seen before. I have a friend of a friend whose mom’s boyfriend knows a nurse who says everyone’s dying from this and she just died too. Died on the spot. No time to even cram a vent down her throat. Autopsy showed it ate her lungs. On a personal note: 18 year old neighbor kid, perfectly healthy, collapsed in March. 52 days on a ventilator. Months later, he can’t walk across the living room without getting winded. And his toes are still purple. It’s no joke, Bro!

  28. I am looking for an article I thought I’d saved – anyone have it? It was written by a male epidemiologist and is long. The article starts with a picture of the author wearing a mask against a biological agent that can kill for some kind of research. It explains, in layman’s terms, why masks are not useful. It includes phrases something like “masks are not black holes for the virus” (if did catch the virus, they wouldn’t make it go away — even if cloth masks caught 100% of virus particles coming in, you would just blow them back out when you talked). It starts with a discussion about how hard it is for people to grasp the relative sizes of very small or very large things, and that these virus particles are very very small, so small that they can only be seen with electron microscopes and so we don’t even know whether, in the wild, they clump together (to be slightly larger but still too small to see in a regular microscope) or stay single. Sound familiar???? Help! If you have a link please email it to gmdfinke@ gmail.

  29. Recommended reading –

    The Virus That Isn’t There, Genetic Sequencing, and the Magic Trick
    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/10/jon-rappoport/the-virus-that-isnt-there-genetic-sequencing-and-the-magic-trick/

    As Ann Barnhardt pointed out… in much the same way they took one piece of a bone and manufactured entire ape-men out of it to prop up the narrative of human evolution. It’s the same things with COVID-19. Does it in fact even exist? We certainly know something was going around for which doctors needed to treat patients with new cocktails of HcQ and Zinc, though this is standard for many new flu outbreaks every couple of years. But all in all, with what are they identifying this ‘new novel’ virus with? Does it even exist? How do they even know what they are looking for? As the evolutionists themselves love to emphasize, they presume that they can build anything from RNa and DNA nucleotides!

  30. My question remains: how to explain the differential between: (A) all-cause deaths trending normal and (B) the commonly reported 300k excess deaths at present ?

  31. Dale

    Like everything else “science”, it’s coming down to MODELS.

    “…a uniquely pernicious killer plague…” Read up on the Spanish flu

    “…a friend of a friend whose mom’s boyfriend knows a nurse…” I love it!
    Talking to an old neighbor from the Midwest … knows a pulmonary doctor at a major hospital in Saint Paul, MN … asked the doctor “who’s dying” … “old white guys”

    Yes … this is nothing to joke or laugh about … it is dangerous

    People should protect themselves and others … but killing the economy and limiting freedom is the opposite of a solution

  32. Dale

    I might still be not answering your question … but
    yes A) and B) could both be correct depending on the actual trend and current numbers

    Assuming All deaths trending 3%/year (deaths have been trending higher since 2013)
    2015 2.56
    2016 2.62
    2017 2.7
    2018 2.78
    2019 2.86
    3% would be 2.95
    2020 3 million 300,000 higher than 2.7 Million in 2015

  33. An excess death to a family is different from an excess death to a statistician with an axe to grind.
    “all models are wrong but some are useful”
    “excess deaths” is a loaded term, like most of the others favoured by statisticians. It is their term. They must defend the assumption baked in.
    It seems to me that people are really concerned about the ‘abnormal’. The ‘out of the ordinary’. Above all as a measure as to whether to “panic” or not. Those individuals are delusional.
    “excess death” is appeal to fear of the unknown, or reassurance, conversely.
    It’s but one aspect of the crisis.
    When medical staff are saying they cannot cope with the influx, Chinese Drs said right from the start,
    “no medical system can cope with this, no system is set up to cope with this”
    Some don’t want to listen because what do those who are on the front line know about viruses? Or facility to operate effectively?
    “Nah, don’t listen to them, just let it all hang out anklet the dice fall where they may…death happens to everyone in the end!”
    Some staff are going to remember that kind of thing and possibly give u the field altogether. There will be retribution for years to come about this long after the disease has settled into a routine part of everyone’s life.
    Nobody said you have to be afraid, they say you have to take action.
    It is never okay to tell someone to be afraid in a clinical setting. Shame on those who claim otherwise.

  34. “When medical staff are saying they cannot cope with the influx, Chinese Drs said right from the start,
    “no medical system can cope with this, no system is set up to cope with this”

    Really, no medical system can cope? The lie that hospitals and emergency rooms would be overwhelmed with Covid, and the subsequent cancelling of numerous other procedures, screenings, etc., is responsible for far more death than Covid.

    Want to know how “overwhelmed” the medial system is? One example: On September 25, in order to justify continued draconian measures, the California government claimed hospital admissions would rise by about 30% in the next months and risk being overwhelmed with Covid. Well, a month later, hospital admissions have dropped almost 8%. Think the governor and his lying advisors will apologize and ease the draconian restrictions so people can live? Fu*k no – they’ll just double down on fear and paranoia, BEACAUSE ITS ALL ABOUT CONTROL!!!!

  35. Covid death?

    A friend of mine told me a woman (age 44?) who was renting a house he owns in North Carolina was going to get a pace maker earlier in the year … it was put off … they recently scheduled it … she died last week

    Without any other details, … I can’t say whether she’d made it INTO surgery … whether she’d have survived it all had the surgery not been delayed. Even with information, it’s something that might be tough to disentangle

    Stuff to think about

  36. Dale

    It LOOKS like Mike Padawer found the missing 2019 data

    Not sure how Mike arrived at 2,130,000 for Jan to Sept 31

    Remember, three weeks is meaningless…six is still suspect
    The last three weeks will be significantly undercounted … three weeks prior will still be undercounted

    So by starting with an underestimate your projection will be further underestimated

    I suspect the 26,000 increase for 2020 is still viable

  37. Dennis,
    Shouting about what you think won’t make your point and clearer or more valid.

    You are making assertions about individual actions taken in response to this epidemic. No doubt many individuals and govenours/mayors have taken advantage. Many have over here too, or tried to. That isn’t really the point I’m interested in. I understand it’s ALL you’re interested in so there’s little point conversing with someone so apoplectically angry with the messenger.

    The epidemic has overwhelmed those places where action was not taken in time. In EVERY example. Forget the politics for a moment if you can find it in yourself because I’ve not interested in lying politicians or the like. I’m speaking about the effects of the virus and what medical staff who work with covid have said from the beginning and without exception.

    Italy, Lombardi, had to lock down almost as severely as china after they allowed early spread through the community to reach a peak.

    Drs were choosing who to treat. Many were unable to attend hospital and died in their beds at home because the hospital was full. We saw evidence of this when families were interviewed on TV. That wasn’t a hoax.

    Italy has seven times the number of ITU beds that the UK has (had) prior to the break out.
    Most nations had one eye on the fact that China is such an unknown quantity, to put it mildly. There was not absolute trust in their figures of their approach which was extreme.

    Our own staff stated as much very early on in the epidemic. Planned to take minimal action possible and found, like everywhere else, that the casual, softly softly approach is not going to work with this disease. Asymptomatic spread means treating it like other infectious respiratory diseases (which are contagious while symptoms are present), just does not work in stopping the community spread. Numbers quickly become too large for hospitals to manage. If your hospitals don’t cope it’s game over.

    So many on the side of the so called know it all skeptical of all science seem to show zero trust in what clinical staff are saying and want to call out governors and politicians for their response. The two problems are separate. Failing to see this is why there’s such a vicious row.

    Don’t forget that in New York, they learned the hard way (Cuomo was unbelievably outrageous in his approach but that’s a separate matter). Now, New Yorkers I’m guessing, don’t need to hear so much what to do or how to behave because they’ve learned it first hand. If such community spread occurs again the same thing will happen again.

    Measures have been taken and people now understand, (what they really should have known anyway, about respiratory infection control), it did have an effect of breaking transmission chains and slowing the spread. That is always forgotten by the self appointed skeptics. It’s intellectually dishonest to ignore that action WAS taken and without it outcomes would have been a lot worse.

    Brazil tried the hard way and are slowly reducing the spread. This is not just about control or lack of it’s also about pride, writ large.

  38. Dennis,
    Shouting about what you think won’t make your point and clearer or more valid.

    You are making assertions about individual actions taken in response to this epidemic. No doubt many individuals and govenours/mayors have taken advantage. Many have over here too, or tried to. That isn’t really the point I’m interested in. I understand it’s ALL you’re interested in so there’s little point conversing with someone so apoplectically angry with the messenger.

    The epidemic has overwhelmed those places where action was not taken in time. In EVERY example. Forget the politics for a moment if you can find it in yourself because I’ve not interested in lying politicians or the like. I’m speaking about the effects of the virus and what medical staff who work with covid have said from the beginning and without exception.

    Italy, Lombardi, had to lock down almost as severely as china after they allowed early spread through the community to reach a peak.

    Drs were choosing who to treat. Many were unable to attend hospital and died in their beds at home because the hospital was full. We saw evidence of this when families were interviewed on TV. That wasn’t a hoax.

    Italy has seven times the number of ITU beds that the UK has (had) prior to the break out.
    Most nations had one eye on the fact that China is such an unknown quantity, to put it mildly. There was not absolute trust in their figures of their approach which was extreme.

    Our own staff stated as much very early on in the epidemic. Planned to take minimal action possible and found, like everywhere else, that the casual, softly softly approach is not going to work with this disease. Asymptomatic spread means treating it like other infectious respiratory diseases (which are contagious while symptoms are present), just does not work in stopping the community spread. Numbers quickly become too large for hospitals to manage. If your hospitals don’t cope it’s game over.

    So many on the side of the so called know it all skeptical of all science seem to show zero trust in what clinical staff are saying and want to call out governors and politicians for their response. The two problems are separate. Failing to see this is why there’s such a vicious row.

    Don’t forget that in New York, they learned the hard way (Cuomo was unbelievably outrageous in his approach but that’s a separate matter). Now, New Yorkers I’m guessing, don’t need to hear so much what to do or how to behave because they’ve learned it first hand. If such community spread occurs again the same thing will happen again.

    Measures have been taken and people now understand, (what they really should have known anyway, about respiratory infection control), it did have an effect of breaking transmission chains and slowing the spread. That is always forgotten by the self appointed skeptics. It’s intellectually dishonest to ignore that action WAS taken and without it outcomes would have been a lot worse.

    Brazil tried the hard way and are slowly reducing the spread. This is not just about control or lack of it’s also about pride, writ large.

  39. Dennis,
    Shouting about what you think won’t make your point and clearer or more valid.

    You are making assertions about individual actions taken in response to this epidemic. No doubt many individuals and govenours/mayors have taken advantage. Many have over here too, or tried to. That isn’t really the point I’m interested in. I understand it’s ALL you’re interested in so there’s little point conversing with someone so apoplectically angry with the messenger.

    The epidemic has overwhelmed those places where action was not taken in time. In EVERY example. Forget the politics for a moment if you can find it in yourself because I’ve not interested in lying politicians or the like. I’m speaking about the effects of the virus and what medical staff who work with covid have said from the beginning and without exception.

    Italy, Lombardi, had to lock down almost as severely as china after they allowed early spread through the community to reach a peak.

    Drs were choosing who to treat. Many were unable to attend hospital and died in their beds at home because the hospital was full. We saw evidence of this when families were interviewed on TV. That wasn’t a hoax.

    Italy has seven times the number of ITU beds that the UK has (had) prior to the break out.
    Most nations had one eye on the fact that China is such an unknown quantity, to put it mildly. There was not absolute trust in their figures of their approach which was extreme.

    Our own staff stated as much very early on in the epidemic. Planned to take minimal action possible and found, like everywhere else, that the casual, softly softly approach is not going to work with this disease. Asymptomatic spread means treating it like other infectious respiratory diseases (which are contagious while symptoms are present), just does not work in stopping the community spread. Numbers quickly become too large for hospitals to manage. If your hospitals don’t cope it’s game over.

    So many on the side of the so called know it all skeptical of all science seem to show zero trust in what clinical staff are saying and want to call out governors and politicians for their response. The two problems are separate. Failing to see this is why there’s such a vicious row.

    Don’t forget that in New York, they learned the hard way (Cuomo was unbelievably outrageous in his approach but that’s a separate matter). Now, New Yorkers I’m guessing, don’t need to hear so much what to do or how to behave because they’ve learned it first hand. If such community spread occurs again the same thing will happen again.

    Measures have been taken and people now understand, (what they really should have known anyway, about respiratory infection control), it did have an effect of breaking transmission chains and slowing the spread. That is always forgotten by the self appointed skeptics. It’s intellectually dishonest to ignore that action WAS taken and without it outcomes would have been a lot worse.

    Brazil tried the hard way and are slowly reducing the spread. This is not just about control or lack of it’s also about pride, writ large.

  40. Joy, you are simply one of the Covid Cultists who has drunk the kool-aid and is helping to enable the evil political and media scum destroying the world over an alleged virus with an IFR in the range of flu. It’s all a scam and a crime against humanity being perpetrated on the world. So I really don’t give a flying f*ck what you or any of the other face-diaper-wearing Covidian psychopaths think.

  41. No Dennis, I’m a Physiotherapist among other roles in life.

    I’m telling the truth

    I once had a man throwing furniture round the room when I gave hi good news. The more reassurance and explanation that things would be okay, the worse he got and the more colourful his language. Staff had to be called to assist and the big cheese was involved in rescheduling an appointment with someone else who by this time refused to see him on her own. So a lead partner had to take time out of his own cliic to sit in with my colleague and this man who failed to show up.

    A couple of years later he stopped me in the high Street in Epping, didn’t recognise him, he introduced himself and offered me humble,
    “so sorry”
    “I was depressed”
    “that’s okay” said I,

    My truth was undermining his perceived way out by compensation claim. I expect you know a few of these individuals in your line of work…

    As God is my witness I am telling the truth. However this epidemic started or has been handled it IS a demon, just as the Chinese authority described it.

    It is pure evil in all definitions of the word. Sorts wheat from chaff, tests people in a way that seems alien in a modern world. Not alien to those who have worked with natural evil, though. It’s a window into the world of healthcare as helmet-cam was a window into the world at war.

    You’re not my enemy Dennis

  42. No, this ultimately rather banal and anodyne virus (if it exists – my understanding is that it has in fact never been isolated and observed in a lab, not unlike some other viruses part of previous scaremongering campaigns, like HIV) is not the demon stalking the world and destroying it, but merely the catalyst or excuse used by media, politicians, and oligarchic interests, who for their own nefarious and demonic purposes are hell-bent on destroying and re-ordering every aspect of normal life to implement their sulfurous agendas. WEF’s Global Reset, Event201, Agenda21…it’s all there in plain sight – they’re not even really hiding it – for those with ears to hear and eyes to see. There are indeed demons at large in the world, just not the ones you seem to think (especially if “the Chinese authority” is your source).

  43. @Dennis re: “Branch-Covidian”. That *was* brilliant, and this probably comes too late, but I wonder if a slight modification to “Blanch-Covidian” might not be even better in several respects… The definition of “blanch” (or even “Blanche”, if you prefer) adds some additional (imo appropriate) implications, without obfuscating the reference to the original term…

  44. @Tyler MCCELNNAN re: your comments in this thread – You, largely by your own choice, are nothing more than livestock – an unconscious animal responding only to the collective whims of the herd, or the crack of your master’s whip. Please go back to the few activities that you do well; grazing and mooing predominate among them…

  45. I only just read what Tyler Mclellan said following Gina’s retaliation!
    Re:

    “Oh wait I forgot you idiots believe the “lockdowns” cause the excess mortality.”
    At this stage there’s no excuse for that kind of remark. It shows you don’t know what the facts are after all these months. Excess deaths are to do with those deaths which are over and above the “norm”. It can be estimated every year after flu season or after any human disaster of magnitude.

    Tyler for your information, nobody argues about the negative impact of enforcing lockdown type measures if they are extreme and long lasting.
    Here’s how it is characterised and classified by by senior decision makers in public health who in turn give the information for policy makers/politicians to decide what to do with the information:

    Direct death:
    Due to the epidemic disease under consideration…plain death due to the disease; and from those unable to receive treatment due to overwhelming of a health service.

    Indirect death, caused potentially by the following:
    Incapacity of the health care system due to impacts on health care staff and infrastructure capacity shortage. So loss of life from other conditions diseases and injury due to lack of medical care input.
    Indirect death AND damage due to loss of general health and well being including loneliness and depression, increases in anxiety and addiction behaviour and so on.
    Long term Economic impacts reducing public health in broad terms including more impacts on psychosocial well being and access to medical care and healthy life style which results from unemployment.

    None of the above is either idiotic or controversial Tyler.
    See simple lecture from Chris Whitty at Gresham college on management of epidemics. He is still a practicing Dr in part, and it shows.

    After tomorrow it could b e a. while before responding so that’s why, that’s because….

  46. Here it is again. There’s no need to overcomplicate the basic principles.

    https://youtu.be/3BdPKpWbxTg

    There are good reasons to listen right through and listen despite its date as is explained at the beginning. It is instructive in elucidating what was and was not known early on. Also proves that media don’t tell the truth and have been playing fast and loose with facts.

    https://youtu.be/IfJcwDaZrsA

    This meeting is also very searching and from early on. There have been many like this one, but at minute 29:00 Impacts of measures are described.
    40:10, mitigation is described in terms of aims and types of measures.

    Dr Whitty describes the direct an indirect deaths which go up to make the figure which can result in ‘excess death’ after the epidemic has passed. It is judged by all cause mortality one or two years after the epidemic. My objection to the term is rather more philosophical than the practicalities of public health measures.

    Minute 17:22, a clear statement about estimated fatality rate: Not the first time I heard Chris mention it and also clear as an observer and having read Briggs blog that the WHO’s number was too high.
    So it doesn’t take an expert to understand the numbers. How WHO gets it wrong is kind of diplomatically explained by Dr Whitty.

  47. Anyone pointing to Chris Whitty as a source of reason and sound policy is as deluded as he is. On September 22 Whitty and Patrick Vallance gave an elaborate fear-laden press conference to justify the UK government’s effort to re-institute lockdowns on grounds that by October 13 there would be 50,000 “cases” (i.e. positive tests) per day, with deaths over 200 per day, leading to unbearable pressure on the UK health system. In actual fact, by October 13 both numbers were well less than half of what Whitty & Vallance predicted. In most areas of the country hospital admissions for respiratory illness – including Covid – were at rates no higher than at this time last year. Whitty (like Fauci) is a fraud trading on fear and paranoia like every other government bureaucrat, politician, and mainstream media scumbag that has pushed the murderous and economically, culturally, and socially devastating global response to Covid. They should all be locked up. It’s especially criminal that most public schools are still closed in much of the USA, doing enormous damage to the education and mental health of kids stuck in front of computers doing “Zoom School,” which reports show most hate (thankfully my nieces go to private schools and they have been back since August).

    Every measure taken by politicians and public health bureaucrats, from lockdowns to mask mandates has been fundamentally wrong, destructive, and downright evil on multiple levels. That is the only necessary point to be made.

    Sweden had no lockdowns and no mask mandates, and deaths are essentially at zero (I think they had 2 alleged or presumed Covid deaths in the past week).

    What a disgusting clown-world, where people think scum like Whitty and Fauci are models of probity, reason, and sound policy, and the dim Dem Presidential candidate walks around with TWO masks on at once and can’t even remember his opponent’s name (Fortunately, I think there is abundant reason to believe the mainstream polls claiming Biden is leading are as fraudulent as Whitty’s September 22 graphs and Ferguson’s Imperial College model that precipitated the destructive policy response to Covid in the UK and USA in the first place).

  48. The panic is picking back up steam, led by “surges” in “cases”—-which are caused by massive numbers of testing.

    In other words, logically, there would be no cases if there is no testing. I sure wish this were the case.

    There are surges in states across the US. Period. Why? Perhaps, one of the reason is that coronavirus is contagious.

    Panic? Fear is normal. Just like people who fear of not going to Heaven.

    Notice how no matter how old people are, they most likely died of something other than the doom (____)? And that for people under 65 or so, there is really nothing to worry about?

    I suspect that if you replace the COVID(%) with any other specific illness, say, A, the conclusion holds for A. Based on the same line of reasoning, no one should worry about getting or having any illness. The fatality rate is low and you are most likely died of something other than A, whatever A is.

    So, you just got a green light from Briggs. Go out, have fun, drink and eat whatever you want, especially when your action affects only yourself. Not gonna judge you. Don’t think my comments are welcome here so I will stop saying more on Briggs’ OPINIONS on the statistics presented here.

  49. @JH re: Brigg’s OPINIONS – If you think that everyone who reads and comments on this blog blindly accepts everything Brigg’s writes or implies here (which IMO frequently contains a significant amount of hyperbole) you are incorrect, and evidently have not read through the comments very thoroughly. I’m all for individuals making rational assessments of risks, including those associated with COVID-19, and taking whatever precautions those individuals deem appropriate to their own situation. I am virulently AGAINST mindless, State-imposed measures that are largely unconstitutional, do little or nothing to mitigate actual risk (e.g., as far as the mask mandate in my neck of the woods goes, I could drape a piece of coarse gauze in front of my nose and mouth, and I would be in full legal compliance, in spite of complete lack of effectiveness), and in reality serve only the purpose of conditioning the people to ongoing and increasing autocratic control.

  50. JH appears not to understand that we are not dealing with “cases” in any sense recognizable in normal medical practice up until this year for this one virus. A positive PCR test is not properly a “case” if there are no symptoms. And the PCR test itself is highly problematic, since it was never intended as a diagnostic tool (the creator specifically warned against such use!) and cannot distinguish between live virus and trace fragments that may indicate previous contact or infection, but which is entirely benign now and does not make the person contagious (and it also has a relatively high rate of outright false positives – do a million tests a day nation wide and you will get at least 10,000 positives even no one has it in reality). The obsession with mass testing even of millions of asymptomatic people, and treating every positive PCR test as a “case” is the only thing driving this paranoia. That and deliberate under-reporting of the IFR as well (and failure to explain the difference between things like IFR, CFR, etc., leaving many low-info, mainstream media-dependent people – still a depressingly high number as discredited as the MSM is – utterly ignorant as to how deadly the virus actually is. I’ve seen polls indicating many people think the “death rate” is 6-10% – so wildly overblown that it can only indicate deliberate media and political malpractice to leave the populace so grossly misinformed).

    If we tested obsessively in the same manner for ordinary flu every year, the media and politicians could likewise whip up fear and paranoia about the crazy number of flu “cases,” and deaths, but it wouldn’t actually make flu any more worrisome or deadly for the vast majority of people than Covid (which has an IFR in the same range as flu). And when is the last time the world was shutdown over flu, and ordinary sane people were made to feel like crazy criminals for daring to leave the house without a face diaper because people are now to be treated as nothing but vectors of disease who are best avoided at all times?

    No one without symptoms needs to be tested for this virus, ever. Stop doing that, and we eliminate the “case”-demic, and perhaps more people will wake up to the reality that this virus has been purposefully overblown by media and politicians in order to pursue nefarious social, economic, and political ends that have nothing to do with protecting people’s health.

  51. Nobody seems to remember the 2017/2018 flu season, the six or seven months where there were TEN MILLION flu related visits to clinics and emergency rooms. There were 8 or 900 THOUSAND hospitalizations and ICU’s were running out of room IN FACT not just in theory around the country (not just NJ). The only thing I actually remember were a number of flu related child deaths reported on AM Radio that year.

    In nine or ten months, we still haven’t equaled 2018 with “cases” as they are liberally defined today.

  52. To be honest I don’t remember any major flu outbreak or concern in 2017-2018, and hardly remember much about 2009 H1N1 thing either – certainly neither felt any different to me than a normal year, and nothing ever made me fear going outside, or consider wearing a face muzzle, anti-social distancing, etc.

    SARS-COV2 is basically about 90% a psyop.

  53. Well there really wasn’t! I didn’t find out about 2018 until I started following the CDC data on Covid

    I DO remember at least a half dozen to dozen or so reports on children dying in my current state on local AM radio. Don’t remember hearing anything from national news

    Didn’t specifics about the flu until this year

  54. Looking at my paper this morning, it looks very much like we are heading back where we were around Eastertime- the panickers are back in control- maybe they never left, but they are intensifying their efforts to lock us all down- governments all over western Europe are locking down again, the Governor of Kansas is trying to institute a state wide, no county opt out mask requirement, people in Minnesota are talking about how ‘bad’ things are in South Dakota and Wisconsin DEATHS OFF THE CHARTS!!! CASES SURGING!!!

    E H Hail describes CoronaPanic as a religion, but this seem insane in a way I can’t comprehend- it’s like double the insanity of April and May. Maybe it’s about the election, but the lockdowns in Europe certainly aren’t about the election in the US.

    I’m taking a course online right now. (it’s training to teach online, not related to Coronadoom, but though a company that’s been doing online stuff for awhile)
    From what I can tell a huge % of the 30 or so of us that are taking the course are panickers- I think they really believe this is the Black Death, and I have no clue how convince them otherwise. They are impervious to evidence- look at the Tweets underneath the KS governor’s announcement of her attempt to mask Dorothy, Toto, Auntie Em and all the other Kansans. Some are sensible, but most are panickers.

    I think what’s happening is that there are largely two camps- The Black Death maskers close everything down people , and those of us like the folks that (mostly) post here. We see the panickers as dangerously deluded; not stupid, because most of our cognitive elites are panickers. They see us as deniers. I don’t know how else to put it, but I don’t know ANYONE who doesn’t think there’s a rather new (how new is open to question) virus in town, which presents some public health problems to be solved. We’re not deniers. But what I see from the other side is the notion that the only reason to stop these draconian measure would be no positive tests for Corona, which is INSANE. Are we going to do this for every other bug in the world?

    And just to repeat myself, what do your eyes tell you? Forget about Hail’s and Briggs’s and Heller’s fine graphs and charts, what do you see in your daily forays into the world? Are we in the first 100 pages of “the Stand?” Are there bodies stacked up? People dropping dead on the street? How many people does anyone know that’s really gotten sick? Or dead? Any increase in hospital admissions, for any reason, is now cause for more draconian measures. I had thought that when the President got sick and recovered we’d be done, but it seems like the White House illnesses led almost directly to the current doubling down.

    Sorry for the rambling, but I’m starting to get scared- detention camps in New Zealand, arrests in Australia- the sick level of mask compliance and panicking here in New England. The word of the day is INSANE!

    PS I posted versions of this elsewhere.

  55. “How many people does anyone know that’s really gotten sick? Or dead”

    Indeed. I have a very large extended family (mom is the oldest of 12 kids in her family, so lots of first and second cousins, aunts & uncles by marriage, etc.). Between family and other friends and acquaintances, I’ve known one person who’s ever tested positive (a cousin after coming back from a trip to Florida in early summer. She felt like she had a routine touch of the flew for a couple days and has been fine since. And no one else in her own household ever got sick at all). Haven’t heard of anyone in that large circle of people who knows anyone else who has had it, much less known anyone who has been hospitalized or died from it.

    In the US I think much of it has clearly been driven by the election, and the belief among Democrats that Covid could be used to their advantage to oust Trump (especially by committing fanatically to symbolic gestures like masks as a sign of their alleged superiority and belief in “The Science” – despite the fact that there is no actual “science” that demonstrates effectiveness of masks; the gesture and symbol is all – as opposed to all those troglodyte Trumpists who supposedly hate science and want everyone to die).

    But, as you said, this doesn’t explain Europe, or the relative calm now in Asia & Africa (where things where never bad at all – rather odd since the media here have been hyperventilating all year about the virus affecting blacks worse than others; perhaps someone should study relative effect between American blacks and native Africans, esp. comparing prevalence of underlying health risks, such as obesity, Vitamin D deficiency, etc.?), especially China where it all started – though I’ve always doubted the China numbers, so who knows if we’re getting the truth there. Of course, it’s all largely a “casedemic” because of ramped-up testing in Europe as well (the panic is about “cases” while deaths are barely mentioned because people are not dying in droves). And more than the US, Europe is dominated by technocrats beholden to the “Great Reset” mindset.

    Of course, the one nation in Europe doing very well – and which the mainstream media, politicians, and health bureaucrats prefer to ignore or find ways of demonizing – is Sweden, which never had either lockdowns or mask mandates, and life there is basically back to normal.

    I stick by my claim that the panic and response is predominantly a psyop (and the greatest collective crime against humanity ever), driven by the forces behind the “Great Reset,” Agenda21, Event 201, and other oligarchical interests (esp. Big Tech and Big Pharma) to re-order the socio-economic and political basis of the world. Nothing whatsoever to do with a genuine pandemic health risk or a virus historically so uniquely deadly or fearsome that it requires such unprecedented and destructive measures in response.

  56. Ganderson

    No Stand here!
    More like The Shining (the twins are in your house saying: “Come and play with us Ganny, … Forever”)
    (The twins are your panickers)

    I have personal knowledge of one death. And another death through some one else.
    I personally know about a half dozen people who got sick (only one briefly hospitalized)

    I know a number of rather old people who are out in the world regularly

    The Black Death? This isn’t even the Spanish Flu (I THINK that is what the panickers are fearing – where later waves were increasingly deadlier)

    Deniers? That’s what this place is – a harbor for Climate and Covid deniers – but all are welcome

    We’re open to spirited debate

  57. Average flu year 36,000 deaths
    1918 Spanish flu 650,00 dead (consider the state of health science and provision at that time).

    WW1, WW2, Korean, Vietnam… Total = 546,000 died for their country

    This last eight months, despite modern medicine and improved hygiene awareness (allegedly) all round, yet, So far:
    236,000 dead.

    That’s quite a long way from the average flu year. Also out of time with flu season. When Covid crashes with flu there’s going to be fireworks. People can only die once though, I expect skeptics are supposed to take comfort from that statistical reality.

    I have the same contempt for those telling staff to just get on with it, you’ve been overwhelmed before, as I do for politicians like those who send their troops to pointless wars because they think they’re a modern day Churchill.
    It reveals a cavalier attitude that is really asking to be challenged with rebellion from the troops.
    Like they used to say over the Military. There’s going to be less and less wanting to sign up. Not like the old days.

    If people are to be considered patriotic! because they’re selfish? then that’s the way to ruin a country from the inside. Good luck with that attitude

  58. This last eight months, despite modern medicine and improved hygiene awareness (allegedly) all round, yet, So far:
    236,000 dead.

    Big contextless numbers are scary! Make people wear masks!

  59. Malcom,

    You think that number is scary? So others must think the same?
    Or you think that by repeating something it will make it true?
    That’s also a fallacy.
    Along with the failure to address the point that the numbers have already exceeded the average flu year by approaching severn times.

    Distracting about masks is just that, another fallacious attempt at obfuscation of the point.

    I’m waiting, not for you, Malcom, but for someone to offer a proper explanation as to why the flu, if it’s relevant is somehow not relevant when it comes to comparing average years

  60. Joy,

    You think that number is scary? So others must think the same?

    YOU obviously do. Throwing out a big scary number with no context behind it besides “Look at how big it is!” is not helpful.

    But really, for how long you presumably have been following this blog, should I just assume you DO know better and this is straight up dishonesty? Or do you just not actually read any of Dr. Briggs’ posts?

    I’m waiting, not for you, Malcom, but for someone to offer a proper explanation as to why the flu, if it’s relevant is somehow not relevant when it comes to comparing average years

    It’s like talking to a wall.

  61. ‘The Black Death? This isn’t even the Spanish Flu (I THINK that is what the panickers are fearing – where later waves were increasingly deadlier)”
    This isn’t even flu. Since you want to talk about flu death, I think it’s only honest to face the numbers as they are. I notice that every time Briggs quotes a death toll for the US he reverts to “world death” from Spanish flu. That’s not to say that he hasn’t ever mentioned the 650,000, but I’ve not read it or heard it said on podcasts.
    As for ‘spirited’,that’s what I call bearing false witness regarding what goes on around here these days. Not the blog it was, not remotely. Shame how the ideological “no comments barred and no moderation” really doesn’t work in reality. So much for freedom of speech.
    Nobody said it was black death or Ebola or TB, even.
    That’s the repeated deliberate obfuscation error that seems to suit the moment all too often on here. It’s a straw man.
    I am now at least enlightened that the blog is in existence for denial of all things and those who disagree are condescendingly “welcome”. There was me thinking it was a kind of on line cult of dead something or others
    Gee, thanks for that.
    (that was spirited)
    Meanwhile, back with the average flu year…Never mind about diagnosed cases. Thee are bodies on the ground and in the ground now that can be counted. All cause mortality is too early to measure for reasons that will affect the conclusions yet again in both directions and to invoice people to draw opposing conclusions from those numbers is too soon.

    Next flu season there will be less individuals with a spot in their diary to die from flu or anything, come January. This all stands to reason. However there’ll be plenty of people who’ve died of this disease due to the careless actions of others who are NOT in the unwanted, teetering on the edge, vulnerable, variety the non expendable ones! that matter so much more to the statistically “literate” supercilious slippery superior types.

  62. Joy

    My response was to Ganderson who brought up the Black Death

    I simply mentioned about the Spanish flu and how its FIRST wave was scary but the second wave was INCREDIBLY bad.

    What was especially unique about the Spanish Flu was its effect on infants and young adults as well as the old

    Mea culpa … when you talk about old people, this IS actually the Spanish Flu. (I’m old so I’m entitled … my 75 and 90 year old neighbors are always going out and about … not locked down at all)

    I heard Briggs with his appearance on Starting Strength Podcast and his numbers for the 2017/2018 were very suspicious although his “host” seemed to be more than a match for Briggs in getting a word in edgewise (not even edgewise, he just barrelled on through), so some of Briggs’ numbers got lost in the translation. I would listen again but just don’t care to.

    My own comparison about 2017/2018 flu and today opens a lot of questions. Those ten million cases were those who felt sick enough to go to the doctor or clinic or ER. This doesn’t mean there were actually more flu cases than Covid cases … chances are people who had Covid never sought treatment like they would’ve with the flu because of lockdown

    Oh! Mea culpa AGAIN

    According to CDC there were 20 MILLION medical visits and 800,000 hospitalizations

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

    From the data found here Covid Hospitalizations were UNDER 100,000 (well under)

    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_5.html

    When people call us deniers, I embrace it – as much disabuse you feel you receive here, it’s nothing compared to abuse you’d feel arguing Briggs’ points in other places

  63. WAIT a Freakin’ minute!

    65000 plus Hospitalizations? All other things equal this CAN’T be correct!

    That means MANY MANY more people died outside of the Hospital than died IN the Hospital

  64. My response was to Ganderson who brought up the Black Death
    I know, did you think I failed to comprehend?

    “I simply mentioned about the Spanish flu and how its FIRST wave was scary but the second wave was INCREDIBLY bad.”
    I know, did you think I didn’t comprehend?
    “What was especially unique about the Spanish Flu was its effect on infants and young adults as well as the old”
    I know, did you think I did not?

    “Mea culpa … when you talk about old people….”
    Yet again, you fight an invisible enemy that does not exist.
    If you go out or don’t it’s your call. Your life, your conscience, your freedom and so on. The argument is about managing an epidemic that is as yet still at play.
    You also have failed to answer the point I made about average flu years. I assume that’s not because the average is wrong but that there’e no response except to say, “so what” do nothing, it’s still better to let people die so we can all be free in the short term. Why don’t people just admit that’s really what they’re saying? Money matters more than life itself.
    I know the answer to that rhetorical question.
    Re Briggs boradcast?
    It’s the only one I haven’t listened to as I’ve not been here until yesterday and limited time. I don’t care to listen to the podcasts any more either but it sounds like at least this time he debated someone who questioned him?

    “My own comparison about 2017/2018 flu and today opens a lot of questions. Those ten million cases were those who felt sick enough to go to the doctor or clinic or ER. This doesn’t mean there were actually more flu cases than Covid cases … chances are people who had Covid never sought treatment like they would’ve with the flu because of lockdown”
    So I take it that’s why you think people were dying?
    It was certainly true in Italy. Very true of the male population in general because it’s their won’t to carry on like they don’t give a shine shoe until it’s too late. Every clinical person will know that this is men of a certain age after which they reach an age when attending clinic becomes an outing!
    The point is that this respiratory disease causes sudden onset of shortness of breath and emboli which result in respiratory arrest and cardiac arrest amongst other things in very short order. It’s nothing like flu in that regard. Clinically if it were a flu strain but a bad one? It could be managed as they had originally intended at the start. Stay at home and only go to hospital if you’re in real need…
    With Covid that means people are spreading when they are unaware of their symptoms. This doesn’t happen with flu. Breakouts can be stopped in schools, and institutions for example very easily if it’s flu, for that kind of reason.

    “When people call us deniers, I embrace it – as much disabuse you feel you receive here”
    O shame on you John. You obviously haven’t been reading very carefully.
    Had I wanted to argue with oafs on the internet who are dishonest in their argumentation I could have probably gone to many a website. I used to find this site different. It is now particularly toxic with regards to commentary.
    I dunno when you first started here but that’s my take.
    Much group think and cowardice. Much compromise on good argument for “peace” which resembles shutting down argument.

    I guess you admit yourself that you like the argument because it’s like Jazz?
    It’s not the reason I make comments. We are all here for different reasons.

    It’s as well not to make assumptions about people though.

  65. Joy

    “Had I wanted to argue with oafs on the internet who are dishonest in their argumentation I could have probably gone to many a website. I used to find this site different. It is now particularly toxic with regards to commentary.”

    The major problem I see here is a lot of despair – Hercule Poirot sees despair as a greivous sin. And many of those displaying an inordinate amount of despair here are Catholic. I feel more pity for those that do.

    Yes Joy, you’ve been commenting at least twice as long as me … you win

    I have been around long enough to remember a knock down drag out between you and Sheri – I was shocked. I probably first visited Briggs around 2009 (2008?) (I think I went through every blog listed by Watts)

    I continued to check out Briggs from time to time but hadn’t found anything I could contribute…still learning

    I never answered your discussion about average flu because I thought you were talking about or to Briggs

    You’ve heard my discussion of the average flu

    You used my quotes so I thought there was an objection

    “better to let people die so we can all be free in the short term”
    Don’t you read what people are saying about their freedom? It’s not a short term thing.
    And how is destroying livelihoods different than letting people die?

    As for the “Strength” interview. The interviewer jumped into many a rabbit hole and Briggs valiantly tried to prevent some of the more egregious conclusions his hosts was making (at times he didn’t

    I still contend, Joy, there’s a bit of a language barrier and never a fan of IM and email, commenting is too prone to misunderstandings and misconstructions – I apologize for mine.

  66. The major problem I see here is a lot of despair – Hercule Poirot sees despair as a greivous sin. And many of those displaying an inordinate amount of despair here are Catholic. I feel more pity for those that do.?
    Well I see it too. I’ve also wise not to get tin between a bear and his sore head. Those who fear to hope are by their nature, in despair. Don’t go with the Catholic idea about despair being a sin. It’s wrong though, to try to break someone else’s spirit or drag others down. A couple of catholics tried to suggest that I had done just that which was the precise opposite of what is really happening. They don’t stop until they’ve got you in their pit of despair.
    The reason I mention how things have changed is because they really have In a major way. It does come from despair and that is contagious like panic and laughter.

    You win? That’s internet talk. ?I have been around long enough to remember a knock down drag out between you and Sheri
    Don’t know what you mean by your description but I certainly remember how things were on my initial return to the site and am still baffled by much of what went on. I had people in real life intimidating me by mail and some very peculiar following me about, some of which I mentioned, deliberately, I believe it was deliberately targeted at me for reasons which are not surprising. That’s about as much as I can say but they were/are wasting their time with me. Nothing to find!
    Sheri was very sweet in taking time to make a few internet/computer suggestions. I believe we would get on very well in person and people are bound to misunderstand each other in writing. They do it with people they know so it’s bound to happen. Personally? I really trust nobody by default but never loose hope!
    I don’t speak internet, you’re obviously a dab hand.
    “I probably first visited Briggs around 2009 (2008?)” think you came along just as I stopped reading and commenting. Like you, I never missed watts or Briggs posts. Read Climate audit avidly into the wee small hours, all about sea ice extent and other alleyways of interest.
    WM Briggs provided me with understanding, not even about what he was supposed to be teaching but some rather more basic elements of reasoning which had alluded me. So I was thrilled to discover some of this stuff and always had fond memories of having read this blog and many of the commenters. So the only way was down…
    Once received really bad response from regular commenter who’s left now, for saying as much. Every time I showed an ounce of favour toward Briggs it was met with varying unpleasantness. So I stopped. Now I don’t give him an inch, as you’ve noticed. He’s still a hero in my view as a result of his work on climage and frankly he’s done enough if he doesn’t do another thing. I don’t like reading black posts, the satire and the sarcasm. It’s painful to read. The subjects!!! Sometimes I wonder what’s going on.
    We’re all still learning. Like Michael 2 says, everybody’s milage varies.
    I’m sure I recall you from Watts as I used to read daily for a couple of years.
    You were right with your assumption that I wasn’t expecting you to respond. Just noting a quote about flu and the point made there and elsewhere which I did not think had an adequate answer. So I really did mean “anyone” or “someone”. People do tend to think things are aimed @ them. They aren’t. Problem is, so much of that goes on on the internet that it’s hard to tell the difference.
    Just as you thought I was aiming my comment AT C Marie a few weeks back. I was not and it’s a bit depressing to see how many ways comments can be misconstrued.
    Haven’t read a good argument for refusing to comply as a matter of political principle. Have said plenty directly about the need for replacing or supporting incomes of individuals forced thorough no fault o f their own into hardship. The US is not set up for that. Each country is finding its own vulnerabilities through this virus.

    “And how is destroying livelihoods different than letting people die?”
    That’s not a like for like representation. Speaking for what’s happened here, that just is not the case. Just as people are trying to save lives they are also trying to save livelihoods, just as they do in any war or disaster.
    People help each other where they can.
    If you can’t feed your family or yourself due to the lockdown, then what you have is not. So much a lockdown as some kind of genuine atrocity.
    Yet the argument is not addressed regarding what happens if they let the virus rip through without taking action. Why is Italy’s experience not instructive? Just because they don’t believe the clips?
    Anyway the above is rhetorical or not requiring continued debate. Happy to read responses but don’t actually want to argue with you about it. I don’t question your logic or your superior intellect. What baffles me is usually plain enough. It’s that people DON”T agree that informs that something’s argh with the information going around.
    Re the ‘strength podcast’. Will listen while on lockdown!
    God bless, as ever.

  67. No arguing = I appreciate what you said – thanks – don’t completely agree but OK

    I am interested in one thing about our “common” language

    I went down a rabbit hole on YouTube
    Watching and listening to things Mike Oldfield (Tubular Bells/Theme from the Exorcist)

    His one album Hergest Ridge is pronounced ‘Harg’est Ridge
    Like when our UK friend told us “The Derby Restaurant” was pronounced ‘Dar’by

    My question is when is ‘er’ pronounced ‘ar’ and when isn’t it?

  68. Don’t tempt me!
    John B, that’s a a stripy question without an arnsah.

    On Tubular bells!

    “one slightly sampled electric guitar”
    “vocal cords!!!”
    Therein lies the stripy answer.

    The Hergest Album,. Never heard of it, expect it’s like the word “haggis”
    Hertfordshire is also pronounced Hartfordshire. The Hart is spelled without the e but the heart is spelled with one. “The Hertfordshire hart’s heart.”

    “Hereforeshire is pronounced Hairy’fd’shire”

    Those who obsess about the R are stuck with saying “errre” instead of “Ah”.aka, alias, “are”. They just can’t ignore the R. Noe what I mean?
    Gnomes have the same difficulty when they go to America. Gnu’s not so much.

    Relax the tongue and speak while pretending to yawn and you’ll get the proper English sound

    Practice;
    “Pardon in the Garden”.
    “Pardon”, The Garden Gnome.
    or
    “pardon the garden Gnome”.

    https://youtu.be/VCvz7uflMIU

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *