After I wrote this, I went over to Drudge, which I rarely do these days, and he’s on full blown hersteria about Trump’s illness. Hilarious.
So Trump has caught the coronadoom, and many cannot contain their glee.
It’s not just our nation’s most celebrated wishing our President unwell, it’s also various political figures. Eleanor Penny, who worked at George Soros’s Open Democracy Outlet, said “I don’t hope Trump dies from Covid. I hope he dies from anything, I’m really not fussy.”
There isn’t space to quote from all the people on the left who act as if the culture war we are in is, in fact, a war. Except to say that these folks should not act surprised if some day the favors are returned.
Some commentary on Trump’s condition is more refined, but speculative. There is nothing wrong with this. Speculation is all we have; it is all the President’s doctors have, as well. Doctors’ treatments for most diseases are in many cases nothing more than hopeful, but authoritative, guesses. The only sin against guessing is getting the uncertainty wrong.
The New York Times, for instance, speculates that
Mr. Trump’s persistent refusal to wear a mask may also change the course of his illness; if he became infected while his face was uncovered, he may have been exposed to a greater concentration of virus, which also raises his risk for severe disease, according to experts who have not examined him but were able to speak generally about patients like him.
We, too, have not examined Mr Trump, but since the Times has set the standard of allowing uninformed commentary on the course of the President’s illness, we’ll do them same.
Starting with this opinion on masks from Dr Fauci himself.
In the United States, people should not be walking around with masks….There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better, and it might even block a droplet. But it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is.
Well, masks have become our new national religion, an obvious outward display of faith. How dare Fauci speak against them.
Anyway, Mr Trump is 74. The CDC says that 1.2% people in his age bracket, 65-74, have died this year from causes other than COVID-19. It also says 0.13% of these people—ten times fewer—have died at least with, and not necessarily of, the coronavirus.
As long as we’re speculating, we might as well do so about Joe Biden, who is 77. In his age bracket, 75-84 years old, 2.9% of Americans this age have died so far this year of causes other than COVID-19. And 0.32% have died at least with the coronavirus.
In both age brackets, then, Americans have about a ten times greater risk of dying from something other than COVID-19. But those in the older bucket are dying at rates about twice those in the younger bucket (from any cause).
Which means what we always knew it means: Older people die more often than younger.
The difference here is that the President has tested positive for the coronavirus, and has been said to be experiencing “mild” symptoms.
The President’s weight is likely a strike against him. Based on an item from the Drudge tabloid, the Times speculated the President may also have other unreported comorbidities. We are thus free to speculate that his health before the infection is as reported, which is fine.
Having comorbidities is never good. Of those those who died with the coronadoom, about four times as many had other illnesses, 22% versus 6% with no comorbidities, according to the CDC.
But these aren’t the right numbers to use to judge the President’s prognosis. What we want to know is the infection fatality rate for people like him. Nobody really knows this number yet, since all the data is not in. Some estimate it as high as 4.2% for the President’s sex and age bracket.
Meaning a 95.8% chance of recovery.
Some estimate women do about twice as well as men. Thus, according to Gender Theory, if Trump changed his Mr to Mrs, she’d have a better chance for survival. (I dare you to find a professor who will openly and on-the-record disagree with this.)
A better guess is to use reports from Mr Trump’s actual doctors. Chief of Staff Mark Meadows at Walter Reed said “The president is doing very well”. He said he was “cautiously optimistic” about Trump’s progress, and that his symptoms were already “resolving and improving”.
Or we could take a look at the man himself, who looks like he’s doing okay.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 3, 2020
Trumps is going to disappoint a lot of people if he lives—which the vast majority of people infected with this virus do. You can read all about that in The Price of Panic: How the Tyranny of Experts Turned a Pandemic into a Catastrophe.
I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
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