Statistics

Coronavirus Update XXIX: How Many Really Died? When Will Panic End?

Going a day early with the update because of the news about death counts.

Also, I want everybody to pay attention: memorize the next paragraph.

You hear things like this: “Business are suffering because of coronadoom”. NO! NO! NO! We suffered because of the government reaction to coronadoom. Not because of the bug. Do not repeat this error, and call it out each time you hear it.

Update Proof of the contention:

People voted for this evil man’s brand of insanity TWICE.

Lockdowns Kill

You’ll have seen it by now, but if not, here’s the word from the CDC itself:

Comorbidities

Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups.

Six percent.

The other number of interest is the official coronadoom death total, which as of Sunday night is 167,558. Math is easy: 167,558 * 0.06 = 10,054. Rounded up, to be fair.

The remaining 157,504 died of other things—an average 2.6 other things!—with the presence of coronadoom. Some fraction of these poor people, considering false positives, died of just other things.

How many times, early on, did we scream, rant, and, yes, rave about juicing the numbers? The answer is a large positive number. Alas, the screams hit the ears of bureaucrats and politicians, our dumbest and evilest classes.

It must be recalled that many deaths were caused by the unnecessary lockdowns themselves. Lockdowns killed. This is not hyperbole or a guess. It is fact.

The guy who calls himself Ethical Skeptic did an analysis of this fact, which I believe is in the ballpark:

Argue about the details if you like. He might be off, and other estimates might be off, about who might eventually have died this year given the absence of the bug. It is clear, no matter what, that coronadoom was, when it was deadly, a catalytic killer only. It couldn’t do the job alone, but only with other diseases present, if indeed it was coronadoom and not the other diseases causing deaths. General lockdowns were therefore illogical, or should have been lifted soon after they were instituted.

CDC also provided this picture, which is the “full” attributed coronadoom deaths by age.

There was never any reason to panic. The bulk of attributed deaths were north of 65. Meaning, again, lockdowns were never necessary. It became clear by mid April what was happening, as regular readers know. Yet politicians only grew more and more ridiculous in their responses, each trying to outdo the other in showing how much they “cared”—or in their desire to cause pain to influence the election and show you who’s boss.

We also have to consider the number of iatrogenic deaths, or deaths by doctor. How many people were killed by panicked doctors cramming tubes down their gullets in the Great Ventilator Scare? In the Spanish Flu, huge swathes of citizens were rubbed out by forcing buckets of aspirin into them. Were ventilators the leeches of our day? Was every patient intubated in critical need of air?

Before we talk about a reckoning, which will not be forthcoming, we have to ask when the panic will end.

When Will I See You Again?

California—and I say this without rancor, but with a sense of fascination—has long been a leader in lunacy. Perhaps the state’s natural beauty and abundance of good things created too many soft men. Soft in body and, like its recent succession of governors, soft in the head.

A tweet from some Blue Cheka (which I lost) read:

#BREAKING This is the new tiered system just announced by @CAgovernor @GavinNewso to provide California counties with guidance re: re-opening.

Counties must remain in each tier for a minimum of 21 days before being eligible to move into the next tier.

Here are those guidelines:

There appears to be no one of intelligence or goodwill left in charge in that once great state. 1 to 3.9 “cases” per 100,000 to reach the utopia of “some” businesses opening. Some!

My dear readers, what is the false positive rate for coronadoom testing? Yes. In the range of 1 to 3.9 per 100,000. Not only that, look at the bottom category, which requires 1 in 100,000 for only “most” businesses to reopen with “modifications”.

Do the brilliant minds—they tell us of their genius constantly—in California universities and government not know that COVID will never go away? That there will always be positives showing up on tests forever, not only the fake positives, but real ones, too?

And this is just testing! I.e. “cases”. Not deaths, or even, the good Lord help us, illnesses! Positive tests! My mind has actually boggled.

California will never reopen if these guidelines are adhered to. I mean never as in never.

This Newsom has reached a very special level of evil stupidity thought by scientists to be impossible. Personally, since I do not live there and the idiocy is causing many people I loathe (hello, Hollywood!) great pain, the longer it lasts the funnier it becomes, in a dark sort of way.

The only real worry is that often Californian madness spreads like a cancer. Our rulers, none too bright, too often play follow the leader. They believe this excuses their mistakes.

There are other forms of incompetence, like NYC’s Bill de Blasio, who openly seeks to cause pain. He thinks only the “rich” go out to eat, and he has never forgiven the “rich” in the city for not voting for him. So he says he’ll begin think about reopening “next year.” Alas, de Blasio has not been a victim of the increased number of shootings in the city.

Pay Up, Sucker

Politicians, especially in a democracy, never admit a mistake. Their reaction when confronted is to increase whatever mistake they were caught making. To show how much faith they have in themselves. And to punish you for attempting to harm them.

We’ve seen it in the coronadoom crisis with masks, lockdowns and now reopenings. Newsome said, when called out on his bad statistics, that “California [was] ‘not completely abandoning’ ICU and hospitalization data, ‘we’re just not leading with those criteria’ as positive test rate/test numbers become critical metrics”.

What he didn’t say was that those worthless numbers are “critical” to him, so he can avoid admitting a mistake. And so that he can help his pals, the oligarchs who are his backers, shadowy men who have grown very rich indeed during this crisis. Isn’t the stock market soaring as people lose their jobs and businesses to seeming government incompetence? Or was it more than incompetence?

I warned us very early on that no reckoning was coming. Politicians, bureaucrats, and the press and oligarchs are going to get away with what they did to us. Oh, there might be a sacrificial nobody here and there subjected to official ridicule, there might be a politician or two coming close to losing reelection. But that’s about it.

Trillions wasted, lives wrecked, wasted, ruined, bodies piling up from government action, the subsequent riots, on and on.

They will get away with all this. And they will even, as The Godmother (Cuomo) is doing, congratulate themselves on a job well done, while expecting your applause.

After all, what you can you do? Rebel? HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!

The Numbers

Sources: daily tests, CDC official toll number one, number two (CDC has two official sources that have differences). The media reports are always greater than CDC numbers.

Here are the number of daily tests:

This is a tad misleading, because I’m doing this Sunday and not Monday night, and there’s no data yet for Sunday. Tests will fall on that day. But it’s not entirely misleading. Testing is not falling fast enough, even maybe holding steady. How depressing. This is so even as the CDC says if you’re not sick, don’t get tested. This is not advice most state governments want to hear, so it will be interesting how they ignore it.

We still have nitwit propagandists shouting about “new” “cases”. When what they mean is positive tests. Next time you hear somebody bellyaching about “new” “cases” say, “So what?” Make them own their ignorance about what a “case” is. Which in most cases is the sniffles, or less, even no symptoms whatsoever.

“Cases” aren’t big deals! Focus on deaths, or at least true and not attributed hospitalizations.

From the beginning I’ve been warning us about juiced numbers, about the difference between dying from and dying with coronadoom. This is why I have been insisting we say “reported deaths” or “attributed deaths” and not deaths, which exaggerate. We now—finally!—have the CDC admitting what we said all along. Watch your language.

Here is the CDC’s attributed deaths, current as of Sunday.

This is attributed, thus exaggerated, deaths. Again, even with late reporting it is clear there is no longer and crisis. It is over. Tell your politicians. They’ll listen to evidence! (Ha.)

Here’s the real number, the only one worth looking at (beside testing). The all-cause weekly deaths. Recall it takes up to 8 weeks to get full counts, but by the third week most are in. The black dots are the last three weeks.

Dashed line, as always, is all cause deaths minus official coronadoom deaths. The peak in the dashed line is proof government actions killed.

Now what Ethical Skeptic is saying is that the bump, which is real, would have been spread out in a more typical fashion, given no government panic. Given the ages of those who died, this is very likely true, at least to a large extent.

In any case, there is no crisis. None. Zero. Zippo. Nada. Keeping up the panic at this time is pure politics and general madness to which democracies are prone. What an appalling conclusion.

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Categories: Statistics

56 replies »

  1. Exemplary. There have been times throughout this farce that I’ve doubted my own thoughts on Covid-19, even though I have a degree in Microbiology. I can’t thank you enough for producing the work that you have done (there are other sites, such as Lockdown Sceptics here in the UK, which have also produced fantastic material), confirming that my thoughts are correct.

    DavidC

  2. As I have said, Sars CoV 2 is a disease, Covid 19 is a political action. Covid 19 was quite deadly, Sars CoV 2 not so much.

    While we are on politics, Trump deserves some of the credit for the disaster. He FAILED miserably in his response. Fauci and Birx should have been fired a long time ago or rendered irrelevant. Shutting down the economy to fight a virus is, quite bluntly, INSANE and I am disbelieving that a guy supposedly as smart as Trump could not grasp the concept of lockdowns being effective ONLY if they last forever, include government workers and eventually starve everyone to death. Yet, the insanity goes on and on and on unabated. Trump blames the governors, thus making his guiltless….

    California is voluntarily killing itself. You can’t stop stupid and self-destructive. Let them go. As far as New York, the lines of UHauls leaving the state says it all.

    The reason politicians “get away with it” is because PEOPLE DO NOT CARE. So, if Americans cared, things would change. When your population loves misery and hell, that’s what you get. Eventually, the misery kills enough people and things slowly change. Not any time soon—Americans LOVE misery and fear and pain.

    I refuse to spend money on anything not essential as long as the merchants of my town consider me a leper, make me wear a face diaper and pretend it’s “because they care” (LIARS). Bezos made billions because he does what he always did—sells stuff without judgment of the worthiness of the customer. Packages arrive at your door, without the “You worthless leper, here’s your stuff. Aren’t you eternally grateful I allowed you to do business with me?” attitude that brick and mortar stores have. They despise and hate the people who shop their stores and it shows. (Virtually ALL businesses back destroying the planet with renewables and virtue signaling as Walmart and Amazon, so I gave up on fighting that one. Apparently, the sheep hate the planet and want it dead.)

  3. Is this another case where nothing is learned from experience, no one is found guilty of crime, the innocent are made to suffer, and those who question why this is so are punished? Sounds like Soviet Communism under Stalin.

  4. Before we talk about a reckoning, which will not be forthcoming . . .

    The reckoning will come. If it does not come by way of civil litigation and criminal prosecutions of the Gretchens and Gavins and other tinpot fascists, it will come by way of a new wave of civil unrest in reaction to the media-fueled panic. These avenues, it should be noted, are not mutually exclusive.

  5. The number of deaths in the table from “Respiratory failure” is 54,803. Assuming that respiratory failure (as coded) doesn’t happen out of the blue, then it’s probably fair to say COVID caused it. Which means COVID caused around 54,803 deaths.

    I realize it’s not easy to list causes of death (is it flu death if the flu causes pneumonia and the pneumonia kills?), but when a respiratory disease causes respiratory failure, that’s a straightforward link at first glance.

    It’s another question as to what conditions came along with respiratory failure (and I can’t find the data that would generate the CDC table).

  6. Bravo Briggs !!

    The neurosurgeon with whom I discussed the Covid-19 panicdemic (sic) yesterday is in full agreement with you.

  7. Sheri —

    “While we are on politics, Trump deserves some of the credit for the disaster. He FAILED miserably in his response.”

    I think Trump knows it’s another bogus attempt to torpedo him and his presidency. But he had to deal with a political reality where 90% of his own supporters were terrified of dying from the thing. He had to be seen to be taking their concerns seriously and trying to do something about it. That’s practical politics, and yes, it is arguable, but that’s the way Trump called it.

    The NYTimes is reporting that 90% of the c-doom PCR tests are overly sensitive and detecting just tiny amounts of virus. No doubt the Times felt a need to get out in front of bogus test exposés, since the subhead spins it thus, “The usual diagnostic tests may simply be too sensitive and too slow to contain the spread of the virus” There is a good deal of debate about just what the hell the test is finding but given the incompetence and venality of the testing establishment you may be sure they are testing for the presence of hysterical, lying propaganda, and finding a lot of it.

    So the disease is over-hyped, the test is bogus, masks do no good, lockdowns ditto and this whole thing has been an insanely destructive farce. But the poor, foolish people still think they’re going to die of the plague and obediently wear their masks. That is why it’s possible this attempted neo-bolshevik revolution by the oligarchs and their stooges may succeed, for a while. The people are astonishingly deceived, and it seems nothing can undeceive them. They look like zombies in their masks. It’s depressing and infuriating and you wish there was something you could do to fix it, besides typing in a combox. So I’m going to go about the day cheerful and confident of God’s plan. And it’s a lovely day for that with the weather cooling a bit so Fall is in the air. Bolshevik revolutions are much more bearable in the Fall.

  8. Ha! Love the last para:

    “In any case, there is no crisis. None. Zero. Zippo. Nada. Keeping up the panic at this time is pure politics and general madness to which democracies are prone. What an appalling conclusion.”

    Why? Because I don’t often get to say “I told you so” – this, from winface dot com – is dated March19/20:
    “There is no publicly known rational basis for continuing the current national response to the Wuhan virus beyond this weekend, so either government knows something we don’t, or it’s all politics, panic, and stupidity from here”

    (And no, there is no intended implication of anything untoward here, I’m just laughing at myself and the world around us.)

  9. Should have known the demon Robert F Kennedy would come up on here. A horrible, horrible creature, that one. Keep wishing he would return to hell and leave us alone.

    Albertus: My father died of pneumonia, as a complication of lung cancer. So, did the “respiratory” problem kill him or was it the lung cancer? I don’t see how we can separate the two. BOTH killed him. You touched on this with the “what the other conditions were”.

    Dean: I had not realized that telling the truth about a politician was “trying to torpedo him” unless you were a leftist. Interesting. You can excuse this as “practical politics” but it destroyed the country, the same as “practical politics” of handing out cash we don’t have, etc, destroy the country. Practical=death of democracy. Trump ran as a person who would stand up to the media and the lies. He DID NOT do so. Honestly, I believe he’s good at economics but crap at science and political intimidation. I don’t consider it “torpedoing” someone when their weaknesses are pointed out. It’s called honesty. (All revolutions are more bearable in sub 90 degree temps!)

  10. Dean Ericson – Dr. Kary Mullis is rolling over in his grave, as he long ago stated that the PCR test cannot be used to tabulate virus amounts, because the test is a form of photo copying a segment of DNA. In addition to that issue is the improper process of doubling the normally acceptable number of sequencing events to allegedly detect a virus.

  11. There will be no proper reckoning because the same people in charge of creating the coronadoom response will generally remain in charge see to it that they can’t be sued, and courts will back them (just as Big Pharma has been, or will be, exempted from product liability claims relating to dangerous vaccines rushed to market). It’s all a big con from start to finish.

    Trump’s big problem was not having the courage to truly oppose Fraudci, et. al (and many in his own party) and take and more Sweden-like approach. In part I think he simply lacks knowledge, in part he felt he had to “do something”. His “mistake” was going along with the establishment’s plan, but half-heartedly, so he will be faulted by all sides.

  12. California’s least restrictive tier requires less than 1 positive test per 100K. There is no tier that allows full freedom. The requirement that social distancing must be met even though this tier says that things can fully reopen is a death blow to churches. Most churches will be lucky to get 25% attendance and still meet the social distancing guidelines.

  13. Great article.

    Perhaps I missed it in the article, but what do you think the second rise in deaths around early Aug can be attributed to?

  14. Sheri: Care to elaborate on Robert Kennedy?

    Yea I drastically reduced spending too. Heck you can order everything online nowadays even food! Canadians seem especially compliant to the lockdown policies so I can’t see this changing soon. Restaurants, brick and mortal stores, none are getting my support.

  15. What state has policies best in line with reality? Where is a good place to go with kids, to ensure a more normal life?

  16. Trump absolutely blew it. From time to time you get a glimmer of his instincts, which are often correct, but if anyone could have pushed back against the madness, it was him. I’m tired of people rationalizing this as Trump giving the tyrants enough rope to hang themselves. Briggs is right, there will never be a reckoning for what we’re going through. Trump’s allowed Fauci, Cuomo, Newsome, et. al to run roughshod on the people of this country and they’re laughing all the way to the bank. In fact, his public pronouncements — from condemning the governor of Georgia for reopening, to hyping up a vaccine — have been disasterous.

  17. Albertus: A search reveals there are many, many, many causes of respiratory failure (nerve conditions, muscular conditions, spine conditions, the list goes on and on). Unless you have other information that shows the virus was the exclusive or absolute primary cause in each of those ~55k instances, I think there’s a serious misjudgment there in making your claim. All we have is a positive test with a respiratory failure death (as I think you accept).

    So, it’s not a “straightforward link at first glance”; in fact, the reasoning must make a leap over a continental-sized chasm to get from one end of the evidence to the other side with the claim.

    Further, your choice of illustration is telling. It is typical of what I’ve heard when people try to dismiss the notion that the viral disease might not actually be that important in such cases…look up “circular reasoning” and then take a look the ordering of causes you chose to present. If such a scenario has relevance at all, it is of a limited kind, and to direct your argument in that direction does not look good.

  18. V: Seasonality is likely a huge factor. Most of the first curve is driven states like NJ, NY, and other northerly states. Viral season starts later in more southern regions. If you plot the numbers for each state (and so many countries) without their names listed, you can guess where they are located (latitudinally) with eerily good accuracy. Others will suggest other good reasons.

    If you search for El Gato Malo or Kyle Lamb8 on Twitter, you will find some good posts related to that issue. Daniel Horowitz also follows the subject, as might Ethical Skeptic and many others (and all are great sources to keep up with what’s going on). You’ll find they reference the “Hope-Simpson” quite a lot. Good luck!

  19. The deaths from the lock down are only getting started. The politicians and their medical advisors have done a brilliant job of “fattening up the curve” for COVID-19 which is still with us, the seasonal flu that is coming, both promoted and under treated most other co morbid conditions and destroyed lives and livelihoods with the mental health issues and substance abuse that goes with it. Meanwhile, we have severely damaged our ability to financially and otherwise support our health and welfare on a go forward basis. But what do I know, I only have a Masters in Public Health, a Fellowship in Academic Health Administration, 30 years senior leadership in hospitals including membership on a Pandemic Planning Task Force after SARS and degrees in economics and business.

  20. Masquerade: a false pretense, a farce. + Poltroon: a cowardly person of no character. = Masquetroon (mask-a-troon). The people driving or walking alone outdoors in their face diapers.

    I saw the CDC report posted on Gateway last night, and I went to bed looking forward to seeing what I’d read here today. I had this odd hopeful notion that this would be headline posts on all the anti-woke websites, that everyone out there would see they’ve been played, that I’d go outside and see people with faces. Maybe they’d even lynch Faucci! That lasted until I got the fat tire bike out to put in the daily 15 miles. The masquetroons are out there thick as ever. They’re masked up like mummies in the ninety-degree heat, jogging or riding the bike path, driving alone in their cars, walking the street with no one near them for hundreds of yards in any direction. We’ve all seen it.
    Every day I read comments on line that distill to the same message: “My mental health is in the toilet with this shit”.
    Me too.
    I find the sight of so many faceless, as creepy as anything I’ve seen in a horror movie. I feel like I’m in the penultimate scene in the old “Invasion of the Body Snatchers”, the one where Kevin McCarthy has seen everyone in his town, right down to his fiancé, turned into emotionless zombies by the pods. He has managed to escape the town, and he runs into the highway hysterical with exhaustion and fear, screaming at motorists. No one will believe him; they think he’s insane.

    How many times a day do we experience that sense of airless suffocation that comes from knowing you cannot reach the masquetroon, you cannot stop the hysteria, you cannot escape the idiot mandates or walk up to anyone, and say, “Read this. Hear the truth.”? How many times a day do we have to choke back a surge of anger fueled adrenaline?

    For every individual who posts “My mental health is in the toilet with this shit”. there are countless others who are experiencing the same.
    This is the toll on our individual and collective mental health. By what metric can we measure it? How do you assess the depth and scope of the damage?

    JWM

  21. Some math, What if the CDC figure is correct that only 6% of the deaths are Covid exclusive Lets do some math. 3% of the total known cases have been fatal. .06x.03 = .18% death rate among healthy people Now if, as CDC has said, and this is all using CDC figures, there are 5-10x more people with it. 1/5th of .18% is.003% As far as the total population, lets assume that 50% of the population does not have pre-existing conditions. Thats 165 million people. 9200 deaths out of the that is .0005% of the healthy population.. Now let me ask you this. How many 18-23 yr old college athletes have pre-existing conditions? How many people who’s lives have been permanently altered by this, had pre existing conditions? In your church, your work place, whatever. I am watching people living in fear of being shut down, places barely hanging on because or orders from on high. They scream science. They scream look at the numbers, Well my friends and maybe not my friends, if those CDC numbers are right, then you are getting a great example of why Roosevelt said what he said. We have nothing to fear, but fear itself. Always love quoting old democratic icons, since my roots are from that. Perhaps we will find out the numbers are different which given the way things are today, would not be surprising

  22. @Albertus,
    Yes, if the pneumonia is truly secondary to the influenza, which is typically the case. Influenza, by itself, rarely kills. It is the complications that do, whether from a secondary bacterial infection, a nosocomial infection, an iatrogenic infection, or a cytokine storm complicates other co-morbidities (and no, I don’t count obesity, given the current awful definition, as a co-morbidity most of the time).

    And no, Sheri, I don’t think Trump failed. He let his advisers have their way and given the uncertainty, plus the howling that came from stopping most flights from China, let our federal nature take its course. His situation is a damned if you do and damned if you don’t. He is just the CEO of the executive branch of the Federal Government. He is not a dictator.

    @Matt: yes, Hope-Simpson seasonality. Add snowbirds to Florida and folk visiting New Orleans for Mardi Gras (just the best known and largest, but neither the first nor the only).

  23. It’s not as easy as one would hope to find median survival time in nursing homes, as the definition of nursing home does not seem to be very consistent (to the surprise of no one even slightly familiar with numerical analysis). Specifically, it seems those in long term care from dementia and Alzheimer typically survive 5-10 years, while those in more typical care facilities die much sooner. If you’re counting both sets, you’re going to get an odd distribution; more difficult is determining what qualifies over time and from place to place. My back of an envelope guesstimate from a couple months ago was the median survival rate was around 6 months. (One study out of San Francisco had 3 months for men and 9 for women – sounds about right. This also would account for COVID’s greater fatality rate for men – because, when it gets into a nursing home, the men there are closer to death, as a group, than the women.)

    Anyway, keeping this in mind means 50-60% of deaths – those in nursing homes – are of people very likely to not live out the year, which fits with the Ethical Skeptics claims above. Other issues: There are a lot of people under 85 in nursing homes – do they live longer as a group? Who knows?

    The CDC’s background death rate for all people 85 or older is 13.6%; the COVID CFR for that same group is 15%. Yet, that age group has something over a 50% annual death rate if they are in a nursing home. It would be nice to have an in/out breakdown by age: I would suspect that 85 year olds in homes did much worse with COVID than those healthy enough to live without that level of care.

    For those in care, COVID might have zero or – maybe – even a positive correlation to survival – 15% is lower than what one might expect! Over a 3 month period, we might expect 25% or so of residents to die (assuming the 6 month median survival and people being admitted at a near constant rate). Yet this thing has dragged on for 6 months now – maybe catching COVID ups your survival chances?

    Kidding. I think. Not kidding that the bug doesn’t seem to hurt your survival chances much.

  24. Johnno

    Damnit that is so sad and depressing.

    That’s true. Screw those colleges/universities and don’t go if you can do without it. Maybe if enough people reject they’ll snap to their senses.

    “Even chemistry is being taught online, which truly boggles my mind.”

    Seriously! There’s no alternative to hands-on for proper learning. How do they expect to carry that to the real world? Chemist with no real world experience!

    I’m starting to accept these lockdown protests now. These students will soon be adults with nothing to do. After realizing who brought these problems upon them, what will they do? Protest.

    When you put people out of work and school and they have nothing to do but twiddle their thumbs, they’ll start to turn violent. The leaders will start thinking “oh put more police” which does not solve the problem but oftentimes the opposite.

  25. Wow i read every word- fear seems to have become the word of fashion- i will struggle yes but i will continue to stand on the Word of God- i choose to see positive and not negitive -it may seem like hell is winning- but its not!!!

  26. Here is how my school handled labs: They suggested that instructors record themselves doing the labwork and then ask questions to students about how well they were doing. Except even THAT was initially impossible last semester since the school forbid EVERYONE from coming to campus, even professors alone in a lab. So they needed to write out written descriptions of labs, or find videos others had made, or find free simulation software. It was a farce.

    The administration even admitted that these classes were woefully inadequate, but their only consolation was saying that students “might” be able to follow around lab classes next semester in order to get their hands on experience in. Except that didn’t materialize this semester because doing that would put too many people in a lab and thus violate social distancing!

    I only have connections in the Science college, so I don’t know how the music performance people got by. If you were teaching a piano class and none of your students owned pianos/keyboards at home, my guess is that they were just screwed. But maybe they tried something crazy. All I know is that the students couldn’t practice at school. In fact, despite allowing students to campus they STILL can’t practice using the school’s pianos. (There would be too big of risk of the keys not being disinfected after each student!)

  27. The coronavirus situation in Canada has also been hyped. The public is hit with cumulative stats only. With some effect, the daily numbers can be extracted to see the waning of the outbreak. In summary the situation looks like this:

    Canada Pop Ann Deaths Daily Deaths Risk/

    2019 37589262 330786 906 0.8800%
    Covid 37589262 9108 43 0.0242%

    Over the epidemic months since January 31, the average Covid daily death rate amounted to 5% of the All Causes death rate (906). During this time a Canadian had an average risk of 1 in 5000 of dying with SARS CV2 versus a 1 in 114 chance of dying regardless of that infection. As shown later below the risk varied greatly with age, much lower for younger, healthier people.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2020/08/29/covid-burnout-in-canada-august-28/

  28. What’s so awful about Robt. Kennedy Jr., Sheri? All he’s doing is bringing the data out using the discovery process in lawsuits. That data includes lovely things like the complete disregard by CDC of mandated-by-law vax testing that was either never done or suppressed because they didn’t like the results. Just the tip of the iceberg – go to his website – there’s so much more. The man has done us a great service in revealing the gross malfeasance endemic in the medical industrial complex.

  29. there sure are a great number of commentaries here that sound bat-shit crazy so much about us crazy folks
    in the GOLDEN State . We are still the fifth or sixth largest economyin the world we will keep our immigrant
    worker while the rest of America crumbles. Iheard that some plan in Trumps big head could kill the Social
    Security system. That would certainly affect too many seniors A Genocidal,, Event Coming soon to your town
    Ooops kinda sounds like a bat-shit crazy idea.it is what it is DJT

  30. I don’t think the first part is quite correct, although the number depends ENTIRELY (seems to me) on how the CDC usually calculates things. We know pneumonia kills a lot of people after they are sick with other things, so what’s important here is whether pneumonia killed people with Covid-19 when it would not have killed people with other conditions (if it has particular symptoms with that virus, say) or whether the same people were all among the most vulnerable and who were likely to die (probably of pneumonia) within the year if they’d caught anything. Same,perhaps, with the “Respiratory failure” diagnosis. Unless we know how the CDC usually treats flu and other things, we can’t evaluate this. Does anyone know??? Likewise, I am very surprised that — if most of the people who died had 2-3 OTHER conditions — they are not telling us what most of those conditions are. There’s a bunch of info buried in the report you can look up, but it’s divided by age and by condition and many of the conditions seem to be similar and respiratory-related. I think a person with a medical background could probably tell. But if most people who die of this have other conditions, why aren’t they telling us what those conditions are so we can know if we are vulnerable???

    What we do know, is that the disease itself rarely kills anyone, and that the majority of those it kills are 65 and older (most MUCH older). But where is the data on how many people are sick with it, and how sick they get? I know two people who had the symptoms of a very mild cold and were well after three days (in their 20s) and one who had it for two weeks (symptoms “like double the normal flu” but no hospitalizations or treatments needed). I know of someone else who was in the ICU for two weeks and in the hospital a total of 21 days. These are very very different experiences of “being sick” — where is the DATA on who has what?

  31. Gail:

    Our family had a mild cold/flu back in Late March. We don’t know if its covid but its interesting.

    Even people 65 years and older, those that don’t have other illnesses the chances of death are very low.

    If you watch interviews about people who live over 100 years of age, one thing common with them is that they’ve never got sick in their entire life. I bet those same folks will live through covid fine.

    At least one thing we should learn from debacle. We should take care of ourselves. The US for example has too many diabetics and obese people. No matter the recent advertising campaigns using overweight models, being overweight is not good for your health. You will simply not live over a certain age if you are overweight, period.

  32. If I have 2-3 things wrong with me I am closer to death than I was without those things being wrong with me. But if those things are not going to kill me in the next 3 months and I then acquire Covid 19, Covid-19 may put me over the edge. In that case, Covid-19 would be a significant part of the reason I died. It would not be the only reason, but not a trivial reason either. Without the other conditions, I might not have died. This might say something about how deadly Covid is, by itself. But just because other causes are present, Covid might still have been the cause of death. Even if not the only cause, it might have been a sufficient cause–sufficiently strong to get the job done in the context of other problems. We might say it was a weak push, but in some a weak push was all that was needed. Or, there may have been cases in which it was a very strong push–such a strong push that we really can say the person died from it. But this is where it gets difficult. It really could have been present and not pushed me over the edge at all. I might have had a false positive and not had any illness. I might have had only very mild illness–not enough to push me over the edge. Or, I might have had mild or moderate illness and that might have been enough to push me over the edge. Or, I might have had a very bad case and died from it. How do we sort all of this out? I doubt we can. I am interested in feedback on this line of thinking.

  33. In cases of influenza where a person dies of secondary pneumonia, we might still want to say that even though the flu was not the direct cause of death, it was what set the stage for pneumonia—for the direct cause of death. The patient probably would not have died of pneumonia at that time had he not been suffering from the flu, which made him more susceptible.

  34. “California will never reopen if these guidelines are adhered to. I mean never as in never.”
    You can’t count.

    That’s <1 daily new cases per 100k of POPULATION *

    The criteria vs # of tests is right next to it – <2%
    compare with your cited false positive rate which is
    1-3.9 in 100,000 *tests* ie 0.001% – 0.0039%

    *Specifically the average daily rate per 100k measured over 7 day periods, excluding prison inmates and then adjusted downwards depending on number of tests performed in that county

  35. Up to 90% of people who test positive for Covid barely carry any virus & are not contagious. Every stat about the disease is bogus
    https://www.rt.com/op-ed/499816-positive-covid-virus-contagious/

    “So how could this have happened? The answer has to do with the sensitivity of PCR (Polymerase chain reaction) tests for Covid, which it turns out can be ramped up according to the taste of the testing companies. Most testing companies have chosen the outrageously high sensitivity limit of 40 PCR cycles – meaning that the DNA in a sample is exponentially increased 40 times in order to amplify its signal.

    But using such a ridiculously sensitive test means that the faintest traces of a dead virus, or even leftovers from previous infections, can result in a positive. Professor Juliet Morrison, a University of California virologist, said that even a limit of 35 PCR cycles is too high, let alone 40. She said she was “shocked that people would think that 40 could represent a positive.” But apparently, pretty much everyone in the US Covid brain trust took exactly that on faith.

    So the scale of the pandemic ‘problem’ is actually much smaller than we’ve been led to believe – about a tenth of what all the politicians and media have been using to justify the lockdowns, the quarantines, the mass testing. Some may be shocked that the scale of the problem is so much smaller than assumed. But for a seasoned ignorer of any and all statistics that contain Covid ‘cases’, there are no surprises here. The truth is, there was never any reason to be confident in such figures. The FDA has only now been forced to concede that they have no idea how different testing companies determine which the positive and negative tests are: they just accept whatever data they are given.

    What these findings bring is absolute assurance that the testing to this point has been an utter waste of time, and that not one statistic concerning this pandemic – from cases to deaths to infection rates – can be believed. But it should not have taken some journalist to ask the right question to discover this: a bit of common sense would have been enough. What is it going to take for these professional virologists to drop their assumptions and models, and just start acting based on the facts at hand?”

  36. Even after seeing the ridiculous numbers, many people are not looking at what exactly is being counted as a death WITH covid in these numbers. Amongst the ICD codes listed are obesity, skin cancer, foreign body in a penetrating wound (this would include bullets and knives), Alzheimer’s, mental disorders, poisoning with toxic substance, drug overdose, osteoarthritis, malnutrition, mastoid disease, childbirth complications, metabolic diseases, ischemic heart disease, and chronic renal failure.) So either the CDC is finally admitting, and the press is ignoring, the death numbers are vastly exaggerated, or covid is responsible for more causes of death than anything in history.

  37. Dquarles, a few things:
    “Yes, if the pneumonia is truly secondary to the influenza, which is typically the case. Influenza, by itself, rarely kills. It is the complications that do, whether from a secondary bacterial infection, a nosocomial infection, an iatrogenic infection, or a cytokine storm complicates other co-morbidities (and no, I don’t count obesity, given the current awful definition, as a co-morbidity most of the time).”
    Several points on that paragraph, relating to clinical presentation as opposed to theoretical groups with a given label:
    1. Pneumonia is not one condition. It has multiple causes which are labelled under the same heading.
    2 The ‘cause’ is indicative of the outcome or the prognosis ALONG with other multiple factors which make up the uncertainty!: Co-morbidities are just ONE that happens to be on the public’s lips at the moment. Along with “cytokine storm”. Which DOES kill. It is not simply the pre-existing state of the major organs which affect outcome. The entire clinical picture has been oversimplified by commentators. Probably by modellers too! Necessarily.
    3. Obesity? It doesn’t matter how anybody think’s it’s measured it is a factor which contributes to poorer outcomes. Intubation and ventilation are fraught with complications as a result. Management of an obese patient is more difficult. So it is not just at a cellular level where the complexity comes in, but that is one of the major elements. There is the difficulty with moving and positioning large patients, administering of arterial lines as can be difficult with very frail patients as well. Manual handling is more time consuming and therefore adds greatly to staff work loads. (such as someone requiring two physios instead of one for example. Sometimes three or four; in trauma, eleven or so all doing unto the patient.
    Those things all have an effect down the line on management and resources available for others who come later in the line, whether paying privately or in a nationalised system (if we’re talking about services overstretched as they are during an uncontrolled epidemic).
    4 The cytokine storm is the runaway inflammatory response; not unique to covid 19; ANY fever, if high enough will kill; dehydration will kill. Electrolytic imbalance will kill. These things can all result from flu. To say it isn’t the flu that kills is like saying it isn’t the snake bite that killed by the body’s reaction to it! Or the bullet, it was the bleeding or loss of integrity of tissue what done it.
    Same for almost any given infection. Mechanisms of pathology kill.
    determining prognosis is not a statistical matter. Only in a journal is that so, or in theory. Practitioners aren’t waiting for someone to get the right definition or categorisation and nomenclature. They’re getting on with things because someone is dying in from of them in distress, pain, or blinking at them expectedly and hopefully…
    So there’s what is learned in college and then there’s reality. The two are, necessarily not the same and never will be. Even human anatomy isn’t clear cut. Everybody’s unique. Uncertainty is bread and butter in a clinical setting. No point complaining that someone got the numbers wrong again. Just as with any complex system in nature. This invariably causes tension in debates where exacting people lament the Softness of the science.
    It is what it is and always will be.

  38. Briggs, did you see this paper that contends that The Sturgis biker festival was a COVID “super-spreader“ event ? I’m far from expert but this paper looks like it has some issues and a predetermined outcome.

    http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

    If you have time, would appreciate your take on it.

  39. Rudolph Harrier posted the following on Update XXX

    https://wmbriggs.com/post/32476/#comment-189536

    His conclusion from the study (probably resembles yours)

    Nowhere in the study was it ever verified that even a single person with COVID-19 had visited the Sturgis rally.
    It’s estimations all the way down.
    Models all the way down.
    Turtles all the way down.

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