Statistics

Coronavirus Update XXVIII: fear, Fear, FEAR!

Eeeeeeek!

What are you afraid of?

From Italy: “The president of the Italian Society of Anti-infection Therapy (SITA) said Thursday that over 90 percent of new cases of coronavirus in Italy are asymptomatic, ‘which means they are not sick.'”

Dr. Matteo Bassetti, who is also the director of Infectious Diseases at the San Martino Hospital in Genoa, told the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera that an exclusive focus on new positive “cases” of coronavirus is misguided, since while increased testing reveals more cases, most of these are healthy.

A doctor in Spain tries to school a propagandist that “cases” do not necessarily mean illnesses, but the propagandist refuses to learn. She presses the doctor to declare there is a crisis. He says they have three coronadoom patients: that’s all. There is no crisis. The propagandist does not believe.

Countless times you were told “new” “cases” did not mean illnesses, but only positive tests (whole thread on this). Positive tests for past or present infections should, on the whole, be seen as a good thing (not forgetting false positives). The more there are, the closer to herd immunity we grow. Herd immunity is Nature’s solution to all previous pandemics (one paper on estimates; another).

Most countries have grown too fearful to aim for this. Their people hear “cases” and fear. The fear of coronadoom increases as the virus ebbs. Why?

On Saturday morning, a propaganda outlet tweeted “Germany recorded the highest number of new coronavirus cases in more than four months, as infections exceeded 2,000 in the 24 hours to Saturday morning.”

Here is the true state of the coronavirus crisis in Germany on that same morning.

There is no crisis. The propaganda outlet, anxious for clicks and power, lied—not in what they said, but in what they left out.

The media these last two months have been shouting “Fire!” in smoke-free theaters over and over and over, just to frighten patrons. These propagandists, and those like them, must be punished.

Here, one example among an increasing many, is what fear has done to Australia, once home to the manliest men and femininliest (you heard me) women.

Rulers, made mad by their own ignorance and the cries of their frightened charges, now say only experimental vaccines are the answer. The Aussie PM said he will force people to get the vaccine. The “Virginia Health Commissioner says he’ll mandate a COVID-19 vaccine“. Be damned to its consequences. (Incidentally, here’s a paper “A randomized placebo-controlled trial in children showed that flu shots increased fivefold the risk of acute respiratory infections caused by a group of noninfluenza viruses, including coronaviruses.”)

Greece “announces up to life in prison for violating coronavirus quarantine rule“. The permanently sad ruler of New Zealand dictated that refusing to get a coronadoom test must be jailed indefinitely (home arrest).

The Garda in Ireland can now without warrant break into private homes to ensure coronadoom standards are being met. Police in England boast of breaking up kids’ birthday parties. They boast of it!

Is there any point in showing the number of deaths in Australia or New Zealand, now in their typical flu and cold season? No: there is no point. It would only show there is no crisis, and anger those who want to hold onto their fear. Fear protects them from infection, they think, but won’t admit. “Better safe than sorry!”

No. It is not better always to be safe. Being sorry can be worse, even much worse.

An investment officer at Franklin Templeton provided us good pictures on the state of fear.

The extra category of “Age 55 or older” at the end is deceptive, and repeats information that came before, so ignore it. It’s plain that perception of the virus does not match Reality. Some 80% of the dead are 65 and older. And almost all of these people were not healthy beforehand. Many would have been killed by flu, but got coronadoomed instead.

This is the better graph:

This is the level of fear by age, plotted next to the estimated risk, as it were. The fear is almost uniform. People allow the very young are somewhat less likely to die. But a depressingly high majority think they themselves are likely to die—if they catch it. Which they almost certainly will unless ridiculous steps are taken.

Stare hard at this graph. Understand that propaganda works. If you don’t believe it, how about this headline? UK public ‘believe coronavirus death toll 100 times higher than it really is’. Golly.

Why do people get sick and die of the flu every year? I mean this question seriously. Why.

Does the cold itself make people sicken and die? No. Do new virus mutations pop up each late fall because of interactions with the changing sun’s rays? No. “What could it possibly be!?,” he asked rhetorically.

It’s because, as all scientists and doctors knew up until 2019, but forgot afterwards, people begin staying indoors, all one next to the other, rubbing noses like Eskimos never did. And what, dear reader, was our benevolent government’s solution to coronadoom? And how about all the oopsies created by that solution? One paper: Excess Cardiac Arrest in the Community During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Here is our nation’s chief propaganda outlet on this mysterious subject:

Bad as the virus has been this summer, it actually spreads better in low temperatures, and when temperatures fall, more people will be inside in poorly ventilated areas where transmission is also more likely. If the U.S. goes into the fall with new daily cases in the tens of thousands, as they are now, then the numbers could explode and the Morgan Stanley prediction could come true. Considering our containment efforts to date, there is little reason for optimism.

Hersteria that blind ought to win an award.

Some have learned that lockdowns help spread illness. But they still fear. Thus this headline: Forced Isolation May Be the Only Way to Stop Resurgence of Virus. We must turn the world into a prison.

We must fear.

The Numbers

Sources: daily tests, CDC official toll number one, number two (CDC has two official sources that have differences). The media reports are always greater than CDC numbers.

Here are the number of daily tests:

The number, which inched up last week, fell a bit, which is good news. Fewer tests mean less panic. The downslope is slower, though, than the upslope. Ideally it would track deaths (with some lag). The peaks in deaths (seen next) was long before the tests hit huge numbers.

Here is the CDC’s attributed deaths, current as of Monday (160,000 in all).

The late reporting always boosts previous weeks a bit, but not so much that we’ll lose this shape, which shows the virus is ebbing.

The real fear is that when the fall begins, and the weather cools, flu and colds will be mistaken for coronadoom and we’ll have more false attributions of deaths. To juice the numbers and keep the panic going.

About the exaggerated coronadoom numbers, we have at least one paper: here are the findings of one.

  • Actual deaths due to COVID are some 54% or 63% lower than implied by the standard excess deaths measure, and reported excess deaths likely include a significant number of non-COVID deaths.
  • While it is well known that COVID deaths are concentrated in the elderly, the study finds them to be particularly acute in the very elderly (75-84 and 85+ years old).
  • Over the lockdown period as a whole Government policy has increased mortality rather than reduced it.

Arizona now counts those who die within 60 days of a positive test as dying from coronadoom, even if they die from something else. This is criminal. But at least we now know why Arizona coronadoom attributed deaths peaked up a bit.

This is all more proof the only numbers we can trust are weekly counts of all-cause deaths. Here they are:

As always, the black dots are the last three weeks, with the recognition it takes up to eight weeks to get complete counts, but that more are complete by three. The dashed line is the all cause deaths minus official coronadoom deaths. See last week (at bottom) for a more in depth look at “excess” deaths, which won’t have changed enough to redo this week.

Here is the same in perspective, since 2009.

Again it is clear the crisis is over. Deaths will always be with us. Asking for zero deaths, or zero infections, to declare an official end to the crisis is asinine, heartless, unscientific, stupid, hersterical, effeminate, brutal, without-excuse irresponsible, negligent, dumb, and deadly.

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Categories: Statistics

46 replies »

  1. Iowa has experienced its first death of a child due to the China Flu. A death back in June that even the child’s parents didn’t know was due to COVID-19, but somehow has retroactively determined to be as such. Don’t worry, the local news are making sure that everyone knows and making sure to phrase it in the ominous fashion “as Iowa schools reopen, the state experiences its first child death due to COVID-19.”

    The only thing that news agencies do now is spread panic and incite riots. There is no doubt that they are a net negative on the world.

  2. I read some interesting numbers in the past week:
    If we ALL wear masks, 70,000 people could be saved. So if Fauci had not told us to skip the masks in March, fully HALF the people who died would be alive now.
    If we had used hydroxychloroquine immediately and widely, 70,000 people could have been saved. Fully HALF the people who died would be alive now.
    So, Fauci and the FDA and governors killed virtually everyone who was a Covid fatality. Add adequate “social distancing”, etc, and some people who died of other causes may have risen!
    And people think the government should be in charge of Covid responses, even though the NUMBERS say all the deaths were because of the government. Death wish, people?????

    I noted when this began that testing was evil and should not be done. When I’m right, I’m right.

    Vaccines may NOT be the answer. There has been at least one confirmed case of reinfection. If you can be reinfected, the vaccine may be worthless or have to be done annually with a 50% or less success rate like the flu vaccine. Of course, this will be used to shut everything down until the population goes mad and anarchy reigns. I’m leaning toward the latter, no matter who wins the election. Vaccines were just a pretty distraction while chaos and anarchy were embedded into lazy American lives. As I have said before, Americans do not deserve to be free.

    My favorite outcome of Covid is the HATRED directed at autistic kids and handicapped now. Once a media darling, they are horrible things banned from Disney world and airplanes, probably schools, etc. because they cannot wear a mask. Put those defective little creatures in their place, didn’t they????

    Dictators with no experience with torture and mass killing are destined to fail. Germany and New Zealand’s wannabes will be taken out in the first volley. It serves them right—but citizens will NOT be happy with the trained violent, torturing replacements. Again, I have ZERO sympathy. Stupid costs. The vicious eat their own first, which is some justice.

    Honestly, if it was not Covid, it would be something else. Humans are determined to destroy themselves, they revel in Hell and love violence and fear. It’s who they are. Stupid and terrified. I have no idea what the purpose of their creation was….

    I do love the term “hersteria”. If you idiot men had any gonads, you would have stopped women, starting with apple-eating Eve. Too bad, now you pay……

  3. Rudolph: I knew more kids that died from tornadoes–one was five years old. Iowans need to run in terror from the evil tornadoes in Iowa, or live underground and never come topside. I mean, tornadoes are “invisible assassines”, just like Covid. Why have these fools not saved themselves??????

  4. Sheri,

    A clarification on the “reinfection” – please take time to read this – https://healthy-skeptic.com/2020/08/24/getting-reinfected-by-coronavirus-is-no-big-deal/

    Key paragraph excerpt – “let’s take the example of a seasonal coronavirus. You wander around and encounter them every day. Because you have been infected with them before, your body has memory B cells and T cells that keep the virus from getting any foothold and beginning to replicate. But if you were getting tested every day for seasonal coronavirus, at some point a test might be positive because there was virus in your nasal or throat passages. This would just randomly occur at some point. Means nothing, because you are not infectious, you just got detected in the process of having virus in your upper respiratory tract before it got cleared by the adaptive immune response. So this poor guy was traveling, picked up some virus, had no idea he did, and got tested before it was cleared.”

  5. This kid is spot-on with his video parody of the terrified:

    “We will, we will mock you!”

    https://youtu.be/Sk-qqmlXlzQ

    “mediabear
    your tip/donation to mediabear will fund the supply of masks, gloves and other socially mandated PPE.without your donation, mediabear cannot be a good Mask Person.”

  6. One thing that could easily be mathematically disproved is Cuomo’s ‘scientific’ quarantine list.

    News flash – it isn’t. Michigan should have been on that list long ago for exceeding one of the criteria for inclusion.

    I am pretty sure that South Dakota never should have been included, but it was for political reasons.

    Additionally, this and the other non-included states give us an idea of which governors are in on the DNC-CCP plan.

  7. Massive outbreak now because of Sturgis … those nasty outlaws and their motorcycles

    Never mind the looters and rioters … er … um … peaceful protesters

  8. Rudolph: My father embraces the media’s belief. I swear every few days I hear about “new cases among the youth” or “now young people can die too”.

    Of course they can die! No one said they they can’t! But does he also know that flu deaths exceed Covid-19 deaths for people under a certain age? But it doesn’t matter, because he is brainwashed just like 80% of the population.

    We criticized chinese people for being brainwashed by propaganda outlets(news channels) yet now the same thing is happening in vast majority of the 200 or so UN nations! Do people not realize news channels are the prime weapon for government propaganda and has been for the whole time print/TV media existed? Why are they all idiots now?!

    80% of the population is asymptomatic but 80% are brainwashed.

  9. Gary Boyd: Yea and there’s that whole thing about how questionable PCR tests are. Even the creator of the test said it wasn’t meant for such testing.

    But here’s the whole problem with what we face. Most people who suspected something is wrong would have known about it already. The internet also reinforces bias because it’ll basically only show what we want to see. TV can do it too but not to the same degree, since you are “forced” to watch what’s available.

    The advent of social media such as Facebook and Twitter may have also contributed to this, because fears that might have been compartmentalized are now all propagating at a pace that we have never seen in the history of the human race.

  10. David-

    Does your father happen to be a Boomer or Silent generation?

    I ask because there seem to be many in those cohorts who take anything pronounced on TV as the gospel truth.

  11. The frustrating thing is that even if you just pay attention to the media, and only the media, what they say undermines itself.

    For example, there is a child who (retroactively) died in Iowa. So all children are at risk! Except that was the FIRST death of a child and there hasn’t been another one for months. Thus we can conclude that the risk is very very low.

    Or for another example, there is a big push to discuss how dangerous the Sturgis Rally was for spreading the virus across states. 22 Minnesotans infected at the event (probably; health officials aren’t even sure that they got it there and not before or after the event). But the same broadcast will tout that there has been 700 new cases in a single day, and that this has been the rate for a while. But those 22 people from Sturgis are going to kill us all!

    The problem is that people don’t listen to the news for the facts, they listen for the emotional narratives. They don’t hear “22 cases out of thousands across the state might have been from Sturgis” they hear “Those hicks from Sturgis are endangering everyone!”. They don’t hear “the death rate for children from COVID-19 is statistically indistinguishable from 0” they here “it’s possible for children, INCLUDING YOUR CHILDREN, to die horribly!”

  12. Cases are not even positive tests. An acquaintance of mine felt a little ill so he got tested. The test came back negative, but the doctor told him that it must be a false negative and still diagnosed him with covid, because why not? The acquaintance, a male drama queen, is now sending messages to everybody he knows, announcing that he has covid and everybody else better get tested too.

  13. The utter irrationality of the continued response, the fear-mongering, and the perpetual paranoia being pushed by media and politicians just defy reasonable explanation at this point. It’s as if they picked the wrong virus to use as the excuse to take the Event201 scenario live (it’s just not actually deadly or dangerous enough), realized it too late, and have no choice but to double-down on just irrationally ramping-up the fear and insanity of the response (they have their plan and are sticking to it no matter what the reality is).

    Certainly in the US it is largely political, Covid and the response to it having been weaponized by the Left as a means to destabilize the country and (so they think) feat Trump. But then, how to explain the utter insanity going on in Australia, New Zealand, and Britain now? Australians always struck me as among the most laid-back and fun people to be around. Now they’ve turned into full-on totalitarian goons over a relative handful of cases of a not particularly deadly virus. WTF is going on? Is there something in the English language that wires people’s brains in such a way as to generate this madness in disproportion to what I see in the rest of the world? Sounds ridiculous, but so is the response to this virus.

    What a low, shi*ty, disgusting age in which to be alive. Weep for humanity. It is doomed.

  14. Briggs: can you correct your last chart for population size? I suspect the overall upward trend is due to US population growing from ~309 million to ~330 million since 2010. E.g can you plot it per million people?
    Thanks

  15. Dennis, the funny thing about this “low, shitty, disgusting age”, is that it was supposed to be about flying cars and great health and the leisure to enjoy life while robots did all the drudge work. This is the most fabulously wealthy age in history and all that money was supposed to solve all our problems. We won the war against the bad guys and from now on life was going to be all peachy keen. Instead, we got this… dumpster fire.

    It demonstrates the folly of the utopians and the fact of man’s fallen nature and a spiritual force for evil in the world. And that is the same as it ever was, and so this age is no lower, shittier, or more disgusting than ages prior. And yet many things had been working rather well, as compared to the recent madness, and the sudden contrast has been like a shocking bucket of icy water on our heads.

    We’ll need to toughen up a bit, physically, mentally, and spiritually, to get through this and prevail. But we can do it; we’re Americans. And Christians.

    Lemons? Lemonade, bro.

  16. Gary: I read it and it’s interesting. Thank you.

    John B(): I can’t believe some total fool kicked a biker’s ride at Sturgis. Talk about a death wish…..

    Dean: I am still waiting for my flying car, impatiently.

  17. Briggs, please, take a note of another very interesting paper on th threshold of herd immunity (take out the spaces from the links):
    http s: / /ww w . medrx iv.o rg/ con tent/ 10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3
    This is a later paper by the same team who authors one that you cite.

    And also this, recently pyblished in Sience:
    Science 14 Aug 2020:
    Vol. 369, Issue 6505, pp. 846-849
    DOI: 10.1126/science.abc6810

  18. Many need to wake up to the fact that News segments lately are nothing more than stealth infomercials, whose target audience are paranoid government busybodies, on behalf of big-tech and big-pharma.

    The aim of putting the surveillance cameras everywhere has always been for the same reasons of spying and controlling the population in the pre-covid era. The present covid-era serves as a convenient excuse to sell the cameras and the tracking technology and testing it and improving it. Once they are in place, covid can go away, everyone is psychologically happier. But the freedoms are gone.

    COVID will disappear just as easily as the terrorist-threats where Al Qeada was hiding in every post-box, once big tech and big pharma have their contracts signed into perpetuity. They learned from the endless war economy. It’s the same model.

  19. Sweden is the most important country in the world right now.

    We were locked down on the premise of saving lives. Not just a few lives, either. Hundreds of thousands. Millions.

    Would you have agreed to 5 months of restrictions and lock downs for a few thousand lives saved? Not if you understood trade offs. Not if you understood that more people would die of increased suicides, drug overdoses, untreated health ailments, etc. Only a fool would make that trade off.

    But we are told the lock downs saved lives. Computer models predicted millions of deaths (2.2 million here in America), and now it can be conveniently pointed out that since we didn’t have millions of deaths, the lock downs must be the reason.

    Enter Sweden.

    Sweden was predicted to suffer between 81,000 – 96,000 deaths by July 1st because of their refusal to enforce a mandatory lock down.

    Well, if it’s true that lock downs save lives, not locking down must lead to lost lives.

    This is why it’s so important for the Western media and Western state powers to discredit Sweden’s approach based on anything except the actual predictions about their death count.

    That doesn’t mean Sweden’s approach was perfect. It simply means that you were locked down over a foolish reliance on incompetent computer modelers.

    Once you understand this, you will never support lock downs again. And you will insist upon protecting the vulnerable but otherwise completely reopening America.
    ———————————————————————–
    Your daily reminder that no-lock down, no-mask Sweden outperformed epidemiological forecasters’ predictions of deaths by ~95%

    Here is one example:
    Estimated deaths in Sweden by July 1 with no mitigation: 96,000
    Estimated deaths in Sweden by July 1 with some voluntary mitigation: 96,000 – 15% = 81,600
    Estimated deaths in Sweden by July 1 with lock down: 96,000 – 50% = 48,000
    ACTUAL DEATHS IN SWEDEN BY AUGUST 21ST WITH NO LOCK DOWN: 5,810
    ———————————————————————————-
    Author’s names and positions:
    Jasmine Gardner, PhD, Post-doc in Structural Biology
    Lander Willem, PhD, Post-doc in Infectious Disease Modelling
    Wouter Van Der Wijngaart, PhD, Professor in Engineering
    Shina Caroline Lynn Kamerlin, PhD, Professor of Structural Biology
    Nele Brusselaers, MD MSc PhD, Associate Professor in Clinical Epidemiology
    Peter Kasson, MD PhD, Associate Professor of Cell and Molecular Biology
    ———————————————————————————-
    These are all impressive sounding people. In their work, they reference Imperial College’s Neil Ferguson as their main resource.

    You may remember Neil as the disgraced epidemiologist whose bug-riddled code produced a forecast of ~2 million deaths in America.

    “We employed an individual agent-based model based on work by Ferguson et al. Individual-based models are increasingly used to model epidemic spread with explicit representation of demographic and spatial factors such as population distribution, workplace data, school data, and mobility.”

    You may remember forecasts like this were used to scare you into complying with lock downs.

    Forecasts like this are the reason you are still locked down, and why your Facebook friends insist everyone is going to die if you open back up.
    ———————————————————————————-
    So we should ask, if lock downs save so many lives, why were they wrong about no-lock down Sweden by ~95%?

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133v1.full.pdf

  20. Shall i continue? Great. I have been ranting lately.

    One day, we will laugh at masks the way we laugh at the idea of Duck and Cover from an atomic bomb. Masks are as effective as that.

    We have three decades of randomized clinical trials showing that masks are not effective at stopping airborne respiratory illnesses. We have decades of OSHA guidelines that prolonged mask wearing is dangerous.

    Even in today’s hysteria, driven by dread risk fear completely devoid of rational understanding of daily death risk, medical exemptions are given for people that can’t safely wear a mask. Use that noodle up in your cranium for just a second folks. If masks are safe, what is the science behind the exemptions? (Hint: look up a study on pregnant health care workers and prolonged mask wearing. That’s just one of many.)

    Mask mandates are CYA. Sweden proves emphatically that epidemiological predictions of doom were total nonsense, promoted by incompetent computer modelers, and peddled by power hungry politicians. If lock downs saved lives, not locking down should result in piles of dead bodies. Yet, Sweden, who was predicted to have between 81,000-96,000 deaths by July 1st, has under 6,000 today.

    Now that it’s clear that millions of people were never going to die because of this bug, politicians need something to point to that shows they saved lives. Enter masks. The masks are helping us get to zero deaths, they say. Think that over….

    One day, there will be court hearings and trials. The tide is turning and people are getting super ticked off. Biden is going to be routed in November. Then comes the governors. And the state level officials. They all need to be put on trial for fraud. They took emergency funds when there was no emergency in order to defraud the public about a bug that wasn’t nearly as dangerous as we were told.

    I am already against the next virus related safety measure. And I am already for the next politician and public health official sued for fraud.

  21. Where’s the beef?
    The original specimens, first labeled the “Controla” Virus, were quickly destroyed, and eventually renamed Covid. However, one surviving slide was spirited out of the lab.

    https://is.gd/GVWs1w

  22. It’s great that most Coronavirus infections are asymptomatic and we should not be concerned. (Just like Chlamydia?)

  23. awildgoose-

    Great guess. What’s the clue? He also believes in global warming. Personally I associated myself as an environmentalist, but I didn’t embrace global warming for long at all. Now I know things like geoengineering is happening, I look at those that believe it with disgust. Previous to this I remember Greta Thunberg as being all the rage. Of course it generated nowhere near the hype of this, so switch to covid has been a right strategy for those involved. I believe the real problems are massive amount of garbage being generated, the uselessness of modern-day recycling, and pollution(and I mean NOx gases, and lead etc, not CO2).

    Speaking of covid and environmental chaos. Billions of masks are going to be strewn about on the streets and thrown in the garbage. Apparently you can use them only once, to be treated as if it contained the Ebola virus itself! Or what about the greatly increased garbage generated using takeout and online orders? I know I try darndest to recycle but most packaging use complex combination of materials which are not easily recyclable.

    About Sturgis-
    Yea people don’t listen. When there’s a rebuttal they say “But Fauci said…”. Too bad since the governor of that state seems sane compared to other states.

    Computer modelling cannot fix one problem and that is flaws and bias of the creator. That’s true even with so-called artificial intelligence as they are more systems that analyze based on immense amount of available data. Then again humans with brains are acting like monkeys so like what the hell? Right?

  24. Dennis-

    I also get a huge kick from the carelessly discarded masks. If beer flu is so deadly, shouldn’t there be special disposal points and procedures?

    I made my guess about your father based on my experience with my Silent Gen mother who accepts the television’s word as holy writ.

  25. (I’m pretty sure you meant a reply to me)

    My father’s a boomer.

    The only way I can explain it is they were living in times of better moral standards, including the politicians. Also believing otherwise may be catastrophic to their psyche. I have to say silently maybe they believe the elites are better than they actually are, or at least try to cultivate that faith. The human body has many defense mechanisms to stop being killed and maybe this is the psychological way of doing that. Imagine how much it would hurt when you realize everything you believed in is actually wrong!

    I know people can believe in other extremes such as the Defund the Police movement, which is utterly insane. Then what? We fall into chaos? Engage in vigilante justice? The fact that possibly few individuals which happen to be member of the police acted irrationally doesn’t mean that should apply to all of them.

  26. David & Goose

    Careful with the wildly wide brushes. I’ve understood Boomers to be born between 1946 and 1964? That’s a wide range of years spanning almost two decades. Did we start apportioning gens to decades in the 80’s or 90’s.
    There are a number of us here that would be considered Boomers. Our host is a Boomer. My own family covers 14 of the 18 years and vary politically.

    My oldest brother (1950) sounds like somebody’s father and somebody’s mom

  27. The cut off for boomers varies, but is largely based upon the birth statistics.

    My husband and I have concluded you really have to look at cultural markers as well.

    For instance, if you weren’t at least a teen in 68/69 meaning at least 13 there was NO way you were tolerated by the boomers and you do NOT share their cultural markers.

    And the same thing goes for the launching of young adulthood. The boomers enjoyed some very serious economic benefits because American industry had not yet been gutted and college was still VERY affordable. These things strongly shaped them.

    But if for instance you were born in 62 you were 6 years old in 68. The hippies wanted nothing to do with you and their era didn’t shape you, the punk era did. And your launch into adulthood was marked by one recession after another and the gutting of the US economy. Very different mindset results.

  28. So I took the data on worldometer from 41 nations and made some assumptions for analysis.

    Based on some theories that herd immunity can be reached at 20%. Deaths are much harder because of likely doctored data to analyze but cases are.

    An example:
    I looked at the times when the number of cases were at peak. So for US for a month of July the average number of cases per day was at 70K. Then I took that number and divided by population to get the percentage. My speculation is that at certain point when herd immunity is reached the number of cases(and oftentimes deaths) will start dropping.

    Out of the 41 nations, there were what I could see as 11 outliers. Nations such as South Korea and Australia, where the daily case is following a u-shape, or places like argentina, and indonesia where it seems it’ll continue to rise for a while.

    Interesting thing is for the 11 outlier nations, either the cases per million are low(australia/s.korea/indonesia/china), or the number of tests per population are low(such as indonesia/ecuador/ukraine).

    I can see for the non-outlier nations where the numbers seem to be dropping the cases per million(let’s call it CPM, and TPM for tests) are fairly high, such as in the united states, and in brazil.

    I also compared Sweden against Denmark and Finland as those two countries are quite often used as cases against Sweden’s policies. Contrary to Sweden, both Denmark and Finland have a U-shape curve as well, indicating cases are going to rise again, while I don’t see that for Sweden.

    I cannot rule out places with excessively low case numbers and tests, numbers dramatically increasing in the future. It includes countries such as:

    -South Korea
    -China
    -India

    Which are all in the outliers list. Perhaps even Bangladesh or Pakistan with low CPM/TPM will follow the u-curve, before dropping once they reach herd immunity.

    The fact that 40-plus nations show a correlation tells me that a) they are all liars b) something is wrong at a fundamental level. B seems more likely to me. P-C-R!

    Conclusions:
    -Number of cases don’t seem to care about weather and temperature. Look at Australia. Why did it decrease during winter(July is winter there) and is starting to increase now?! It is however on the decline again.
    -Herd immunity not being reached for Australia is plausible as even deaths are increasing.
    -It seems to lead as possible evidence that PCR tests nothing more than finding any trace of the virus, dead or alive. Perhaps the body eventually eliminates all trace of the virus, which is why cases drop?
    -It might continue to “ravage” people with cases until pretty much everyone has been exposed to it at some point. Those countries with excessive lockdowns may see steady influx of cases.

  29. What’s the science on the effects of long term social distancing?

    Hint: such scientific research does not exist because NPI’s like social distancing were never considered for anything except the initial stages of an epdemic and only for targeted groups.

    Guess what? You are the science experiment.

  30. Pingback: Strange Daze
  31. 100% love this post and comments as it tells the story I have been trying to share locally so well. I am a mother of three, two school-aged, with a full-time job, fighting the good fight. Below is data and research that encourages critical thinking in order to alleviate fear and manage risk appropriately. I have spent countless sleepless nights pulling everything together, with an original intent to help get my kids back in the classroom, but this information applies more globally.
    Don’t be paralyzed by fear! I have fears too, but each day I research for truth and arm myself with it. Knowledge gives me the power to weigh life’s many risks and find peace knowing I cannot save the world, but I can move our society closer to success.
    The goal with this information is to get people to think about the whole health of our society, wake up, and alleviate the fear that has been building since the start of this pandemic.

    Let’s put death into perspective and all agree that any death is always sad, but we are not immortal beings, so death is a reality of life. I care about everyone’s well-being and believe my research shows a better path forward than the one we are on.

    People aged 85+ is just 2.0% of the US population, but make up one-third of COVID-19 deaths (Aggregated data from: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku ) (2/1/2020 -8/1/2020)

    People aged 75+ is just 7% of the US population, but make up 54% of COVID-19 deaths
    People 54 and younger is 70% of the US population, and only make up 8% of COVID-19 deaths
    Deaths don’t register % until 15-24 and even then, just 0.2%. Children 4K to College have 0.03% chance of dying from COVID-19
    Median age of COVID-19 deaths is around 78, which is the average US life expectancy, which explains why we are not seeing more excess death than in the previous years
    Only 6% of any of these deaths are coded as COVID-19 only, while the remaining are coded with 2.6 additional causes of death (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm )

    Statisticians are projecting 421K deaths by December 1, 2020 with easing of mandates, but if you take the 6% into consideration, it is only 25,260 which does not even place COVID-19 on the top ten leading causes of death (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america )

    Unintentional injury is the leading cause of death until age 45, while respiratory illnesses like influenza and pneumonia are barely a portion of the pie (https://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc-charts/leading_causes_of_death_by_age_group_2018_1100w850h.jpg )

    The top unintentional injuries for those in the ages from 15-64 are from poisoning (opioid overdoses) and motor vehicle accidents, with suicide as a top cause of death and yet we keep over-looking those statistics
    The top cause of death for children age 10-15 is suicide (and we have seen a dramatic spike in children’s anti-depression and anti-anxiety medication prescriptions already)
    For children 9 and younger, unintentional injuries range from drowning, fires, suffocation, and motor vehicle accidents, most of which happen in homes
    Over the years, the top 10 leading causes of death for ages 1-44 change, but unintentional injury never leaves the top slot (https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/animated-leading-causes.html )

    Older people and people with many serious medical conditions are the most likely to experience lingering COVID-19 symptoms, not children and healthy individuals. The most common signs and symptoms that linger over time include: Fatigue, Cough, Shortness of breath, Headache, and Joint pain and in several studies, only last up to 3 weeks (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768351#:~:text=The%20Figure%20shows%20that%20a,and%20chest%20pain%20(21.7%25).&text=This%20study%20found%20that%20in,symptom%2C%20particularly%20fatigue%20and%20dyspnea .)

    There is a spike in children’s mental health disorders connected to stress of COVID-19 era and not having the close interactions with friends and non-parental adults is cause for concern
    More than two-thirds of high school athletes report anxiety and depression since pandemic (https://www.uwhealth.org/news/more-than-two-thirds-of- high-school-athletes-report-anxiety-and-depression-since-pandemic/53429 )

    Many studies have shown that getting previous coronaviruses have actually shown better outcomes with this current coronavirus
    Our immune system can be compromised when we avoid all germs and viruses as there is proof that there is cross-specific acquired immunity or “innate education” that we develop from obtaining and recovering from viruses. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2647650/

    More studies are showing that immunity after recovery lasts up to 3 months, with estimates that immunity could last for one to three years. Our children and healthy individuals getting and recovering from COVID-19 provides better protection to our elderly and those with comorbidities. More positive cases in that category is good. (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/23/894670842/how-long-will-immunity-to-the-coronavirus-last )

    The number of people in the United States who have been infected with the coronavirus is likely to be 6 to 24 times as high as confirmed cases. (CDC news July 21)
    The number of confirmed cases as of August 23, 2020 is: 5,856,346. Conservatively, 15 times that is 26.3% of the population. If even 50% of our 54 and younger individuals (those not compromised), recovered from the virus, our US immunity improves to 62%. If 75% of those folks, our US immunity improves to 79%.
    For this particular coronavirus, doctors estimate that about 60% to 70% of the human population would need to have antibodies in order to have herd immunity as a species. (https://www.mdanderson.org/cancerwise/what-is-covid-19-coronavirus-herd-immunity-when-will-we-achieve-herd-immunity.h00-159383523.html )

    Sweden’s median COVID-19 death rate is 82 and their country’s life expectancy is 83. They limited their measures and while the may have seen a higher initial fatality rate than some, they will not see the detrimental economic and other health problems of other countries. They were courageous and smart.
    Herd immunity will protect Sweden’s population and fewer measures will be needed if another wave occurs. https://judithcurry.com/2020/06/28/the-progress-of-the-covid-19-epidemic-in-sweden-an-analysis/

    You can make your own conclusions based on this information on what the best path forward is, but it is not wearing masks and cowering in fear until a trial vaccine comes along that is going to save us. We need to be critical thinkers and change the narrative. Spend our energy on ensuring we are a healthier world (reduce obesity and pollution), making our terrain less susceptible to viruses and empower our immune systems to do their jobs! The future is bleak if we don’t.

    Thanks for reading. My research is not done and I will keep on advocating! Spread the truth.

  32. David-

    You said “We were locked down on the premise of saving lives.”

    I specifically remember Fauci explaining why we needed to lock down in order to “flatten the curve”.
    It was all about how we needed to SLOW (no one said STOP at that time) the spread in order to avoid overwhelming the hospitals and the medical system.

    It was only after the lock downs were in place that the reason morphed into saving lives.
    Then we started seeing signs and T-shirts with slogans like “Stay Home. Save Lives.”
    And the media THEN were acting as if everyone knows that staying home saves lives.

    I haven’t heard anyone mention “flattening the curve” since about April. It was a bait and switch.

    Excellent points about Sweden though. I’ve also noticed that mainstream media NEVER mentions Sweden at all now. There was just the initial predictions of doom for them when they announce they were not shutting everything down. Nothing since.

  33. I love this website! Thank you WM Briggs for your work, God bless you
    Also, a shout out to your reader Kristen for her very thorough journaling. She will be published someday as well, if she so desires?

  34. Why are you people so delighted with calling other people fearful? This has always been an unseemly bit of nonsense promulgated by those who want to politicize the pandemic, but I realize the whole premise of your recent book rests on that.

    PS. Your Germany data needs updating. They are up to 9,000+ deaths, with 7,000+ new cases yesterday alone. New restrictions in place. https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-toughens-restrictions-as-it-enters-decisive-phase/a-55273942

  35. “Why are you people so delighted with calling other people fearful? This has always been an unseemly bit of nonsense promulgated by those who want to politicize the pandemic, ”

    The politicization of the “pandemic” (which has been over as a medical matter for months – it is entirely political now) comes precisely from those purveyors of fear and paranoia who still will not allow life to resume as normal, but treat a virus with an IFR in the range of flu as a excuse to act as totalitarian overlords limiting the operation of businesses and social life, forcing people to wear useless face muzzles to go outside, re-ordering the social and economic basis of life on earth, etc., etc., etc. May the fearful and paranoid sheeple all choke on their rancid face diapers.

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