See the new analysis at the bottom, prompted by a question from Joe Bastardi.
Update I have two words for the people who did this. You know what they are.
Police are preparing to launch their aerial arsenal as part of a crackdown on COVID rule breakers. High powered drones will be used to find people not wearing masks, and cars too far from home. https://t.co/5zYfOfohG3 @tdolling #7NEWS pic.twitter.com/Yy84UBTH0V
— 7NEWS Melbourne (@7NewsMelbourne) August 17, 2020
“…and the strange thing was that most welcomed their submission. They had surrendered to and cherished their fear to such an extent that anything done to them in the name of safety was accepted.” –Future historian.
Update There are still a few men left.
“Right now, you better be happy that we’re being good citizens – that we’re peaceful citizens – but it’s not gonna be peaceful much longer.” pic.twitter.com/vb4IT9MRE0
— Pete D’Abrosca (@pdabrosca) August 18, 2020
Prediction: they’ll ignore him.
Obey Your Mother
Here we sit at the week 27 update—twenty-seven weeks! A bit more, really, since we started late, not realizing the full scope of the panic that was to come.
I don’t speak of the number of deaths, which were always expected to be in the same range of other outbreaks in the last century, and are. I originally guessed at the lower end; they turned out to be larger than average. Didn’t beat the Asian Flu (2 million) or Hong Kong Kung Fluey (1 million), though it came close to that one. Didn’t beat AIDS (33 million). No. I mean I didn’t foresee the global-sized out-of-proportion panic in response to this wholly expected not-at-all unusual pandemic, a panic best described as Hersteria!
Hersteric, n., adj., an unduly panicked woman or effeminate man; the irrational state of hersteria; see also karen.
Most countries panicked. Not only did they panic, they ratcheted up the hersteric response as the virus ebbed: the better conditions got biologically, the worse they became mentally. One example of far too many:
We’re putting tougher measures in place to target serious breaches of coronavirus restrictions.
Fines for not wearing a face covering will double for repeat offences, up to £3,200. pic.twitter.com/Fnq3t50URe
— UK Prime Minister (@10DowningStreet) August 16, 2020
Here was the true state of the coronadoom crisis in the UK the same day the announcement of further punishments for not panicking were announced:
That “0” at the end is zero deaths.
You would think graphs like this would be trumpeted across the land, eagerly claimed by politicians as resulting from their diligent and tireless efforts to “battle” the virus. Didn’t happen. Instead, the opposite did. These graphs are forgotten, and when mentioned, ignored. Strike that. Not ignored: angrily received.
How dare you suggest things are getting better when it’s clear the virus is raging! That is not an unusual response. It is hersterical and comes from those who believe their fear is protective. If they give up on their fear, they believe they are sure to become infected. This is rank superstition. Update See the response of Sylvain below for confirmation of this (no lockdowns in 2009 with lower deaths he forgets; deaths are not at 1000 per day, etc. etc.).
We come to the central fallacy of the coronadoom response. It is the belief the infection would not have spread and would not have killed, like all other pandemics throughout all human history have, if only the government were “allowed” to act. Mysterious political forces kept it from acting, which cost lives. Nature had nothing, or little, to do with the bug. Nature didn’t cause its spread, and Nature had no real responsibility in any deaths, and it is said with adamantine certainty that Nature could not and is not making the bug disappear (i.e. herd immunity). In a democracy, particularly a Godless matriarchal one, everything is political.
We know this is a fallacy because of both history and the results of various government responses. What can be shown (below) is that government actions have caused extra deaths, the UK being the most prominent case, but also New York and other states which crammed sick people into nursing homes.
Pointing to countries, or the eight (then seven, after Arkansas freaked out) states inside the US, which did not lockdown and did not mandate masks, but which did fine or as well or better than anybody else, is just as useless as pointing to graphs showing declining deaths. Say “Japan never locked down, and the shape of the death curve looks no worse than anywhere else, even better. And how about South Dakota: never locked down, and had a very low death rate?”, and you will receive only a blank stare.
Or you will hear the irrelevant news that areas which are seeing the virus spread for the first time are reporting deaths. A person in New York, where the number of deaths has dropped to 0 or near 0, will hear reports of deaths in Arizona or, say, Peru, and believe those reports apply to her and her risk.
There are, of course, many reasons for the hersterical response. No one reason predominates, but there are certain notable trends.
The state becoming a helicopter mother is the most obvious. Private institutions, too. Albion College will require students to install tracking apps, just like in 1984, to “protect” them from coronadoom. Tennessee bruited then tucked away a plan to have secret police do “well being” checks on every child in the state. These examples are due to the rise of the matriarchy.
It’s clear one large difference between coronadoom and the Swine flu, and the outbreaks before it, was that global communications ability increased tenfold and more from 2009 until now. This allowed the day-by-day hour-by-hour even minute-by-minute broadcast of updates of new infections and deaths from locations most people had never heard of, and will never go to. This never before happened in all of history.
Another: Many rulers appear to have settled on a zero tolerance policy, another new twist. It’s got so bad that negative tests have become positives because feelings. “Flattening the curve” has long vanished from consideration, and deaths, the best indication, are now meaningless. Instead eliminating the virus is the only goal allowed in several jurisdictions. There can be no more effeminate response than a demand to eliminate “all” risk.
Consider, if you disagree, your reaction to this statement: Just forget it about and go about your business as usual, just like in 2009 and earlier.
A Stroll In NYC
This update is already overly long, so feel free to skip this short section.
Six weeks ago I went to a library book sale on the upper east side of Manhattan, and bought some books from the friendly ladies who volunteer there. Then (regular readers will recall) I went Up North. It was that time away from the city that allowed me to see the differences in behavior clearly.
This weekend I tried to get back into the library, but it is now closed because, the sign says, of coronadoom.
Around the Fourth of July, mask wearing in the city was about half, an increase over April and May, the time most deaths were recorded, but when most were not wearing masks. In March, the only people with masks were Asians. But now, masks are on about 19 out of 20 people. Perhaps even more. It is an astonishing sight to see, and depressing.
Here is the true state of the coronadoom crisis in New York.
This is attributed deaths over the entire state, not just the city. There is no crisis. But the fear is now palpable.
I will tell you more anecdotes, which some of you will not believe, since I am a skeptic. You will say I exaggerate, and my swearing that I am not will mean little. So I invite any reader who can do it to walk the streets (unmasked) for themselves and verify, or disprove, what I say.
Monday (yesterday) morning I walked to the East River to play with my radio (I’m a ham). A masked lady pulled her dog to the side on the bridge, pinning it. I thought at first it was because the dog might be rambunctious, which doesn’t worry me, dogs seeing me as one of their own. She waited until I passed and continued on. I watched. She passed half a dozen other people, all masked, and did not stop for any of them.
Only 8 out of 10 people jogging, of which there were many, were masked. Yes, masked joggers. It was hot and sunny.
One lady jogger approached my bench; at maybe thirty yards away, she pulled up her mask. She pulled it down again ten paces or so after she passed me. This happened twice, only the distances varying slightly.
New Yorkers used to be famous for being gruff. They would not look away when you looked them in the eye. No longer. Many now avoid the gaze of the unmasked, the virus presumably transmissible via eye rays.
I was walking north and a masked man was heading east, and we were nearing a collision point at the intersection. The man stopped ten yards short of the intersection and waited for me to pass. I cannot emphasize strongly enough how unusual this is. In pre-virus days it was a game to see how close you could get to somebody without hitting. “Be afraid!” I shouted, walking away.
I tried to get into the elevator with an old lady, but she yelled at me. Only one person is allowed in the elevator at a time.
Incidentally, all restaurants in Manhattan that were not forced to close forever are now outside. The same nervous people who think the unmasked will surely infect them have no trouble at all walking by people sitting and eating maskless. The virus cannot travel upwards, I guess.
It’s not all bad. I walked by an old lady using a walker, her assistant standing nearby. The old lady, her age alone making her vulnerable, had no mask anywhere in sight. I smiled at her and got one in return.
I have many more stories, but that’s enough.
Alas, there is some bad news. Daily tests have increased from last week:
There is high variability in daily numbers, so we can ignore the late up-and-down spike. But we can’t ignore the increase, which will lead to more reports of “new” “cases”, thus more nervousness, thus more tests, and so on back to the beginning.
Last week we learned California proposed paying people $1,250 for testing positive, or $5,000 for a family of four. I’d get the test for that amount. The Atlantic now advocates cheap tests—which will hugely drive up false positives—and giving these cheap tests multiple times. With the zero tolerance policy mentioned above, this will ensure the crisis never ends. As in never. Until they force people to take a vaccine. Just as they never did ever in human history for a flu-like virus.
Where are the test increases? At least in New York, Texas, California, and Arizona.
Arizona, for example, makes some sense, as attributed deaths have increased slightly there. New York does not, as we saw.
Here as usual are the official CDC weekly coronadoom attributed deaths:
No surprises for us. Finally, here are the weekly all-cause deaths from the two official CDC sources:
The three dots mark the last three weeks, and indicate the newer official source, which tracks both attributed coronadoom and all-cause deaths (it takes up to eight weeks to count all deaths, but by three the totals are usually close to the final values). The dashed line are the all-cause deaths minus official attributed coronadoom, and are thus all the deaths from other things (they say). The minor blip in the dashed line are deaths caused probably by the government trying to fix the situation (increase in suicides, untreated cancers, etc. etc.).
The two official sources are now in rough agreement. Even given late reporting, it’s clear there is no longer any crisis. By which I do not mean there are no deaths. There are always deaths! It’s only now, at this point in our history, we have the expectation there should be none.
Let’s compare the last three years, ignoring, at first, population increase.
Here are the cumulative all cause deaths, for 2018, 2019, and 2020, from weeks 1 to 32.
The cumulative number (again, ignoring population increase and the problem whether the people who crossed the border illegally are counted) is the same for all three years up to about Week 11 to 13 or so.
This plot “normalizes”, if you like, the ordinary flu spike. There is a bump up starting in Week 15 in 2020, and continuing a bit until Week 32, the last week available as of this writing. The dip at the end of 2020 is as above, and due to late counting.
It would be a mistake to say the increase is caused by coronadoom. Some of it is; some of it is caused by government. We don’t need to separate them yet.
Here’s a different way to look at it. This is the difference in weekly deaths, 2020 minus either 2018 or 2019.
Again, the difference around Week 12 or so is clear, as is the difference in early weeks in 2018—but then we recall the flu was bad then. Once again, the dip at the end is due to late reporting.
But if we sum the differences between Week 12 (when divergence begins) to Week 30 (before drop off), we get 189,000 for 2018 and 166,000 for 2019. (Once we add in Weeks 31 and 32 after the reports are updated, these figures will change). The CDC estimates by Week 32 there were 151,559 coronadoom deaths (so far).
In other words, from 166 to 189 thousand represents the “excess deaths” because of the coronadoom crisis, either due to the bug itself, or due to government “solutions” (nursing home deaths, increase in suicides, untreated fatal heart attacks, etc.). If we accept the CDC’s official figure, then the government caused about 10-20% of “excess” deaths, coronadoom the rest (it’s worse for the government, because this doesn’t count coronadoom exacerbation from nursing home deaths, etc.).
Now by Week 30, there were 1,667,277 total deaths in 2018, 1,659,227 in 2019, and 1,834,156 in 2020. Population increased about 1 million per year during this time (of citizens; illegals, who knows). So we’d expected roughly 30/52 * 1 million = 577 thousand more people by the 30th week each year. Population in 2018 was about 326.8 million by Week 30, and in 2019 it was 327.8 million, and it was about 328.2 million in 2020.
Thus the rate of dead to total bodies by Week 30 was: 0.510% in 2018, 0.506% in 2019, and 0.558% in 2020 (note the decimal point!). So even accounting for population increase (but possibly not illegals) we have a relative increase of anywhere from 9.5 to 10% more deaths for by Week 30, and an absolute increase anywhere from 0.048-0.052%. Crude estimates, of course.
Remind me how many people went out of business, lost their jobs, how much the government spent, and so on and so forth?
To support this site and its wholly independent host using credit card or PayPal (in any amount) click here