The numbers, the only important part of this article, are in the last section. I heard on the radio the analysis I present is a “lie”. Reason? Trump said more testing lead to more “new” “cases” and our propagandists can’t bear agreeing with Trump on anything.
The Path of Panic
The beginning of the panic in the US saw politicians elbowing each other out of the way to be first to the microphone to condemn citizens for “racism” for refusing to order General Tso’s takeout. “Get to Chinatown!” they declared, “Where the fortune cookies are always good news.”
The next phase, and each subsequent phase thereafter, began with the stark denial there was any previous phase, and that the current proscriptions and prescriptions were always the same. We were always at war with Eastasia. Of course you shouldn’t go to Chinatown and have a meal! In fact, you should not have meals out anywhere. Don’t bother with masks, though. They do nothing, Frauduci told us.
Then the run on toilet paper and bottled water happened.
Panicked populants, loyal news-watchers all, got into fist fights at Costco over the last 1000-count roll of single-ply. Shelves were stripped bare of canned goods as if the zombie apocalypse had already happened and the survivors were starving.
General Motors was ordered to cease making cars and being producing ventilators. There weren’t enough. More would never be enough!
Then people started being “detained” or, in various locales, arrested for walking outside a second time in one day. Neighbors ratted out neighbors. Many never went outside, for the air could kill you faster than CNN could deny Joe Biden said what he just said. Hardened criminals dared stroll alone on beaches, or they sat in parks on the grass in the sun. Some, emulating the worst excesses of Hitler, reopened their businesses and gave haircuts.
Then the panic began to ebb. A bit. Nothing dramatic. Reported deaths, the metric of choice by leaders and propagandists everywhere, were down. Leaders who insisted the only solution to this unique never-before-seen unheard-of utterly brand-new there-were-no-such-things-as-viruses-before-2020-and-if-there-were-nobody-ever-died-from-them crisis was to lockdown “non essential” workers, decided to ease off a bit.
And all was well. For a week.
Then somebody, perhaps a woke intern at the New York Times, had the brilliant idea of calling infections, past or present, of this or any other coronavirus, “new cases“. Since the previous metric was death, and only those that were cases died, this switch in definition ratcheted up fear to acceptable levels again. “Flattening the curve” was forgotten, illnesses were forgotten, deaths were forgotten. “New cases” become all. Grateful leaders re-instituted controls.
All propaganda agencies immediately switched to reporting “new cases”. “New cases” were everywhere. People rushed to get tested. They could be a “new case”! “New cases” were surging, spiking, setting records! Sure, most who tested positive weren’t sick and had no symptoms. But they were a “new case” and everybody knew being a “new case” was one step from death.
That’s when the mask mandates began. One leader began them, then the other leaders, fearing they could be blamed for increases in “new cases” if they didn’t “do something”, required them, too. First people only had to wear masks inside businesses and buildings. Then they had to wear them in their own homes. Then they had to wear them everywhere, in or out. Masks quickly became political and a sublime excuse to vice signal (the goofier the protection, the purer the soul).
Then those who did not wear a mask were called criminals. It became a crime, a real genuine official crime, a mark on your permanent record, to not wear a mask. How easy it was for government to create a new crime! This new crime—punishing the new criminals, rather—would save lives.
What a wonderful newfound power! Why, there are many ways to save lives. Each could require its own new crime. What a glorious future we are entering.
Anyway, that’s where we are now. The question before us is: (1) When, if ever, will the panic finally end, and (2) given the panic extends at least into the new future, what new forms will it take? Answer below in the comments, but only after you read the numbers section.
The UK could see about 120,000 new coronavirus deaths in a second wave of infections this winter, scientists say.
Asked to model a “reasonable” worst-case scenario, they suggest a range between 24,500 and 251,000 of virus-related deaths in hospitals alone, peaking in January and February.
To date, there have been 44,830 official deaths in the UK, but this has slowed with 1,100 in July.
The estimate does not take into account any lockdowns, treatments or vaccines.
And the scientists say: “The risk… could be reduced if we take action immediately”.
They will never give up. The control they have won is too precious. People, most of them, are happy to be protected from this virus (and, as above, there were no viruses ever before 2020).
Reader Mike Henderson sent in this order from a Maryland county.
Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks announced today that she has created a COVID-19 Ambassador Compliance Team, consisting of more than 70 inspectors from multiple County agencies, who will begin conducting inspections at restaurants, retail establishments and businesses across the County. The inspections, which will begin this weekend, will ensure that establishments are adhering to COVID-19 protocols such as facial covering requirements and social distancing. The announcement comes as the County has seen slight increases in some coronavirus data points.
An army of Karens created! (Incidentally, the male version is also called Karen.)
Reasons to be Serene
Here are the number of daily coronadoom reported tests.
Last Friday, there were over 850 thousand reported tests. 850 thousand! On one day! The number goes up and up and up and up some more. It shows no sign of stopping or slowing. If the current trend does not change, on or about 1 August we will be at one million tests per day.
A million a day!
I’ve said it for three weeks now, and I’ll say it again. If this graph does not amaze and appall you, you have not understood it. This one picture explains the current levels of madness.
Look at this, the weekly reported official coronadoom deaths, from the CDC:
Mask mandates began around 1 July for most places, a point at which reported deaths had already dropped to low levels. It was last week or so that not wearing a mask became a criminal offence in some localities. If masks are our salvation, why were they not required back in April and May, when reported deaths were rising or peaking?
Masks for people who were symptomatic, or fat, old, and sick, made some kind of sense then. They make little sense now, and make less sense as each day passes. Yet the mania for them increases in direct inverse proportion to the number of reported deaths. Madness.
Since we cannot trust reported coronadoom deaths, especially from propaganda sources, the safest best, as we’ve said all along, is to look at all cause deaths. Here are the weekly deaths from all causes, per capita, according to the CDC (second source).
Since the CDC is always behind in reporting these, the last three weeks (from the first source) have been marked with dots. These numbers will almost surely rise, as will, to a much lesser degree, the numbers up until about 8 weeks ago (usually, the bulk of the adjusting lag is in over the last two weeks).
There is no sense in this picture, none whatsoever, not even for the allowance in late reporting, that we are still in any kind of crisis.
Here are the actual counts (not per capita), focusing on the last year or so.
The dashed line are the all cause deaths minus official reported coronadoom deaths. Again, there is no sense in this at all that we are in any kind of crisis. We have plotted this same graph for months now, and we have never seen a huge increase in late reported deaths for the third week; only minor adjustments are seen.
The point is that deaths are not at unusual levels, and will likely stay that way. The people who died from flu, pneumonia, this bug and other “seasonal” causes are gone on to their reward.
So why the “spike” in “new cases”, and hospitalizations and even in media reported coronadoom deaths?
All that damned testing.
We already know that this bug, like others, is much more widespread than testing indicates. Testing is revealing asymptomatic infections, past or present, as “new cases” (a whopper of a mistake). Hospitals are testing everybody—multiple times!—and when they get a positive, the patient is labeled a “COVID hospitalization”. Since there are huge numbers of tests and “new cases”, many in the hospital “dying with” or “dying with suspected” are classed as “dying from” (another mistake, which many are finally noticing; same thing in the UK).
Meanwhile—and I know I sound like a sperg—the media screeches “new cases”, which produces new fear, which causes people to get tests, which causes “new cases”, which produces more media reports and new fear, which causes people to get tests, which causes “new cases”, which etc. etc. etc.
This will not stop until (1) the public or media is distracted by some new thing, or (2) most people have been tested at least once. The “new thing” might be the election, and even testing a million a day would take a year to get most.
Update The Godmother shows how far from rational thought we have gone.
Let's be clear.
Outdoor dining is now permitted statewide.
Outside drinking is not.
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) July 21, 2020
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