Coronvirus Update XIX: UPDATE: Screw Spikes, Surges, Records In New Cases

All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update VII, Update VIII, Update IX, Update X, Update XI, Update XII, Update XIII, Update XIV, Update XV, XVI (doesn’t exist), Update XVII, Update XVIII, Estimated True Infections/Cases, Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus, and the Sanity Check Perspective, so go to them first before asking what-about-this-and-that. Skip to the bottom for the latest model. Thanks to everybody emailing me sources, including Ted Poppke, Jeff Jorgensen, Jim Fedako, Joe Bastardi, Philip Pilkington, John Buckner, Harry Goff, John Goetz, Warren McGee, Robert Kinney III, Paul Hainey, Darren Nelson. https://wmbriggs.com/post/30606/. I’m way, way behind emails.

It’s All Politics

Coronadoom is now entirely political.

Unfortunately, the only way to overcome bad politics is with the thing that shall not be mentioned, or good politics.

Update More proof of political bullshit: Oregon county issues face mask order that exempts non-white people.

Push back against the lies, distortions, and absolute bullshit. They are losing control too soon before the election, they don’t like it, and they’re scrambling.

It is bullshit. Every approved flak, academic, and pol said screw social distancing if rioting, looting, and mayhem was your goal, just as these same bottom feeders said social distance was a must if attending a Trump rally. Or in opening businesses by other than skateboard through the window.

Our enemies want you to forget the headlines above (we had several last week, too). They are hoping you are stupid enough to believe what they tell you because they are in charge.

Look out your window. It is clear we are living in a time when those above us are the dumbest of any leaders in all of history. Want more proof?

In shift, Florida Keys now requiring face masks until June 2021

“Visitors to the Florida Keys will need to bring along face masks or face a $500 civil fine.” This is done purely to humiliate you and show you who’s boss. Ignore the order. Depose the government.

Need more?

They changed the headline on this story, which I should have screenshot. It was originally “WHO chief warns coronavirus pandemic accelerating“. It’s now something about Brazil, but you can see the original in the URL.

“‘We are in a new and dangerous phase,’ Tedros said at a news conference in Geneva Friday, and he warned that lockdown measures are still needed to halt the virus’ spread.”

This is bullshit. This is an outright lie, pure power politics.

I’ve been telling us for months (yes, months) that the only number that we can really trust is the all-cause weekly deaths. Everything else can be, and is, fudged, especially in the media.

We’re not the only ones who are noticing. Axios: U.S. Coronavirus Cases Are Increasing, But Deaths Aren’t — Yet. Key sentence “‘The death rate always lags several weeks behind the infection rate,’ top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci told me.”

Fraudci! No handshakes forever Faudci! Ignore him.

They’re also pushing “hospitalizations.” After lockdowns eased, people started to go to the doc for complaints they’ve been waiting on. They get tested. Lo, coronavirus is found. And the cancer patient (or whatever) is now listed as a coronavirus hospitalization.

Spikes!

All Cause Deaths

This is the per capita all-cause weekly deaths. As usual, the last two weeks are under-reported. It can take up to eight weeks, the CDC says, for the full report, but two is more usual. There is no sense in this data that it’s anything but getting better.

Here’s the blowup (actual numbers, not per capita).

The dashed line is the all-cause minus official COVID deaths. Even accounting for late reporting, it is clear this crisis is over. Finished. Kaput. Done. Finis.

Everything the media and politicians are pushing is hype, meant now only to control, to manipulate. Do not submit.

USA! USA! USA!

That’s the official CDC weekly COVID deaths, up through 19 June, the latest numbers available. These numbers are likely exaggerated, as we saw from the all-cause deaths above. But there is still no sense whatsoever that it’s getting worse.

Here are the reported — i.e. MEDIA — numbers. They are not the same as the CDC numbers. They are higher, by at least 10% everywhere. The media has been using higher numbers all along, and they continue to do so. They cannot be trusted.

Ignore the model if you’re a skeptic; it clearly is pulled down too much by the huge spike in the middle. Doesn’t matter. Point is, even the media numbers are down and heading further south.

I left all the other material out, like in how infections are about 70 million, and testing is turning up old cases. I wanted to this to be succinct as possible. Every time you hear somebody pushing fear, show them the plots above.

Update

Finally other people are making official what we’ve been telling you for the last eight weeks:

Here it is, what I left off, the estimated infections/cases, and reported cases (in black).

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25 Thoughts

  1. Not just an infectious disease expert, but a “top” infectious disease expert. Who put the stars on his shoulders? I’m not the biggest Lincoln fan but at least the guy fought to win, and kept replacing his generals until he hit on the right one to achieve his aims. When will Trump tell Fraudci to pack his bags? Yeah, the media will make him the biggest martyr since, I don’t know, that last guy to get fired by Trump, but they’ll soon tire of him and move on. Do it now.

  2. 1) I would recommend not visiting the Florida Keys at all and spending your tourist dollars elsewhere.

    2) I wish I had the link handy to the excellent exposé of how large a bureaucratic fraud Fauci is and how many conflicts of interest he’s had over the years. The man should have been locked up forever years ago.

  3. To your point, awildgoose, I’d love to see a database or list of those localities that have resisted the urge to humiliate the citizenry with punitive, arbitrary, and capricious “disease control” measures. Those are the places where your vacation dollars should be spent.

  4. “When free discussion is denied, hardening of the arteries of democracy has set in, free institutions are but a lifeless form, and the death of the republic is at hand.”
    – William Randolph Hearst

    “According to American principle and practice the public is the ruler of the state, and in order to rule rightly it should be informed correctly.”
    – W.R. Hearst

  5. Maixiu: Trump will NEVER fire Fauci before the election. Trump is a coward.

    Most of the fly-over states were not shut down. There’s Yellowstone (no camping yet), if Gordon does not turn dictatorial and close it, probably parks in Montana, and all of South Dakota stayed open. Avoid Colorado, of course.

    *******
    Move from the Florida Keys.
    (Note: that may not work. Wyoming is being FORCED to blue, the latest being the takeover of the last local newscast. Admittedly, the old one was crap, but now we get ONLY NATIONAL and we either go blue, or else. You can run, but you can never hide.)

    Everything accelerates, decelerates, wanders about. The STUPID people do not believe this. If you find someone who thinks the accelerating is always bad, feel free to forever see “STUPID” tattooed on their forehead.

    Agreed. All-cause weekly deaths should tell us what we need to know, assuming they are real numbers. I know they are all we have, but sometimes just ignoring the entire lie is the correct choice. Assume they lie all the time, ignore the predictions and fake statistics. Buy ammo instead.

    Yes, the death rate lags several weeks behind the infection rate for FLU, AIDS, CANCER, PNEUMONIA, MEASLES, WHOOPING COUGH, etc. That Fauci does not know this shows how stupid he is.

    People pushing fear do not give a damn about facts. Facts cancel fear, so the fewer facts the better. I have suggestions on what to do with the fearful and the fear spreaders, but not over the Big Brother internet.

  6. “I’ve been telling us for months (yes, months) that the only number that we can really trust is the all-cause weekly deaths. Everything else can be, and is, fudged, especially in the media.”

    I missed those times because I wasn’t reading posts. It has certainly been said over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over by those involved in the statistics, as opposed to the shadow statisticians who’ve set themselves up against the government.

    The media are the transmission of fear based on lies and misinformation, they appeal to the trusting or the ignorant.
    THAT is the opposite of good , honest medical management. If it is motivated by a need to control others for financial gain or just because of some inner need, you can do without them.

    It is also how you can tell a charlatan.

    Don’t forget politicians who have the right idea have also to deal through the lens of media and in the knowledge that anything they say can and will be twisted, inverted and used in evidence against them.

    Least said about Fauci, the better, by Trump. That’s what he seems to have decided, too.
    ~~~
    The worldometer is now, I’ve decided the more reliable, up to date source for numbers. Thanks to John B.

    Johns hopkins is dragging it’s feet and switching the graphs to demonstrate that the UK is the worstist with the mostist. That the US is languishing with some dodgy countries.
    Anyway, maybe I’m being unfair. I don’t see why the bar chart had to change or why they’ve chosen certain countries and omitted others.

  7. I think you, like all people getting hysterical about mask laws, are missing how beneficial it will be to have plausible reason to be masked in coming hard times.

    The powers that be and their facial recognition plans just got knocked back. Don’t discount the power of this.

  8. Joy
    Didn’t care much for John Hopkins
    Their data didn’t tell me a lot and so when someone here or on WUWT pointed out WOM, I liked what I saw – granted WOM has its detractors and controversies

    Monckton of Brenchley fears for the US
    In Monckton’s Gibraltar post he’s counting 70,000 excess death in UK as COVID while JHU and WOM have it about 43,000.

    I’m a little concerned about today’s US numbers (highest in 12 days), but guessing it’s the vagaries of WOM or being at the tail of the virus, if we’re below 600 by this time next week, it’ll be good

  9. Fauci, any expert, any reporter, any professor, any pundit, any politician about absolutely anyone who has an opinion that they are publicly willing to air and air and air… needs an Official Conflict of Interest Check. Every single time they open their mouths they should state whether they received money, favors, vacations (or maybe just the odd gratis flight to a little Caribbean island), tickets, lunches, bottles of wine or whisky, or any other scrap of material good before they open their traps and regale us with their self-assumed wisdom. It doesn’t have to be a long drawn out thing, but there could be a little oath they could do when the cameras are rolling that wouldn’t take but a few seconds. And if they did receive favors, that should be stated as well, and then the public can weigh the true value of the information provided with this in mind. They are not asked to be silenced—but they are asked to be truthful in their motives and intent.

  10. « Update More proof of political bullshit: Oregon county issues face mask order that exempts non-white people.« 

    Maybe if police officer did not put under arrest black people for wearing a mask such an exam prion would not be necessary.

    « Coronadoom is now entirely political »

    Two pictures:

    1 outside with most people wearing face mask.

    1 inside no one wearing face mask.

    2 very different pictures and reality.

    I truly encourage Trump to do as many inside rallies as he can.

    If you are right nothing happens.

    If we are rights Trumps end up killing thousands of is voters. He probably killed at least 50000-70000 of his voters in the last 3 months. Many of them in Michigan.

  11. Worldometer is just very clear to see as well as I noticed the numbers were up to the moment accurate and agreed with he figures published by the UK government.

    I trust Lord M of B’s estimation if that’s what he said. I had heard about sixty thousand a couple of weeks ago for excess death. I’ll have to go and look or listen as I used to listen to his radio and on line YouTube lectures. I was watching the first bar chart on johns Hopkins. It feels like Eurovision song contest all over again. It’s normally Europe that plays these kind of games.

    Well it looks to me as if the US has done better than most countries and this will be for a variety of reasons, not all accidental. One would expect the country coming last in the queue should fair better because information being power, means the infection can be more easily brought under control. If it were just down to population size and Uk being comparable the US should have five times our figure. So it’s not as bad as the media are making out. Not all of the outcome is due to luck or timing or geography/weather. Some of the interventions do work, or the entire discipline of infection control would not be the most successful field of medicine. The way the US is set up is NOT to be well placed to respond as a whole to a health emergency, yet I think the government has helped Cuomo no end and a little more gratitude wouldn’t go a miss. All round, really. A lot of people have done their best and not just medical people. It should give people a reason to feel proud, or at least raise a smile.

    So I heard from media that the US had increases in numbers in hospital. It will continue to happen. It doesn’t mean the disaster seen in some areas will necessarily happen again. It’s night and day compared to the situation in early Spring. People know how to shield their loved ones, the ones that do as they’re told, that is! I was glad Boris told them. They weren’t listening to me and were going to chess! shopping behind my back! Whispering when I came in the room and so on. (“don’t tell miss.”)

  12. Last comment was to John B, meant to say.

    Sylvain, I wish you would respond. (You could pretend nobody’s else is watching.). Like an internet stage whisper.

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  14. Joy
    (“don’t tell miss.”) ???
    Too precious … so you really are Mary Poppins!

    Do you have something going on with Sylvain somewhere?

  15. John B, no that would be my parents taking the Mickey! Never do as they’re told.
    Shouldn’t have mentioned Mary Poppins, least said…

    Re Sylvain, no, I thought of something to say, didn’t say it, then responded to why I wasn’t saying it and didn’t explain any of it. Sorry.

    Sylvain,
    Never mind. Some things are not debatable. On the internet and in mainstream media the impression is given that matters of fact are all open season to switch and change according to political will. All that doe is waste time and muddy the flow of good information. I don’t think you’ll have a clue what I’m talking about but hey, nothing new there.
    I just find it tedious when first principles aren’t even established in so many discussions. Any manner of BS is thrown in the way to prevent proper discussion. The only way to untangle the mess is to start with the truth.

  16. Joy

    Aaaah! The imagined conversation … I have to watch out for those as well

    … and you’re back to Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
    If they won’t stay in bed, put up a giant playpen

  17. I’m confused about the charts under the heading “All Cause Deaths”. Don’t both charts indeed show a spike near the end, right before they drop off a cliff due to under-reporting for the last two week? What am I missing?

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