All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update VII, Update VIII, Update IX, Update X, Update XI, Update XII, Update XIII, Update XIV, Update XV, XVI (doesn’t exist), Update XVII, Estimated True Infections/Cases, Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus, and the Sanity Check Perspective, so go to them first before asking what-about-this-and-that. Skip to the bottom for the latest model. Thanks to everybody emailing me sources, including Ted Poppke, Jeff Jorgensen, Jim Fedako, Joe Bastardi, Philip Pilkington, John Buckner, Harry Goff, John Goetz, Warren McGee, Robert Kinney III, Paul Hainey, Darren Nelson. https://wmbriggs.com/post/30606/. I’m way, way behind emails. We have to turn in the book soon.
I forgot to put the header earlier. This post answers the question below of where the estimates infections and cases came from.
BE AFRAID! QUIVER IN FEAR! PANIC!
The craven collaborator and would-be President Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York, desiring power for himself and loathing the people over which he has control “threatens to shut down Manhattan, Hamptons again if coronavirus social-distancing rules broken“.
Cuomo, on his knees before a mirror, wiped his lips and said, “The riots, lootings, violence, mayhem, and murder I allowed to rage throughout New York City for two weeks did not happen. The people I ordered to nursing homes did not die. And if you nice people take off your masks and get closer than six feet apart until after the election, I will have you arrested for disturbing the peace.”
Ignore the “experts” who are trying to pee your pants and screeching like Karens about “second waves” and spikes! in new cases.
“‘I could guarantee you a biblical plague by Christmas,’ warns UCC Professor“. Spit in the eye of experts like this.
The graph is below—I need to know if you don’t understand the explanation—shows the estimated number of people infected and who were really sick (cases). These numbers are MUCH higher than the reported numbers. Testing will reveal these infections and they will be reported as if they are new. That which is already there will be used to keep the panic going. It’s testing of old cases called new which are causing “spikes”.
I don’t know how else to put it, but I am obviously failing to make the point. Help me make it better.
Panic Experts said:
- You can have the bug for up to two weeks before developing symptoms, and during this time you can spread it. OOPS: no.
- The bug can live on surfaces longer than Nancy Pelosi has been in office. Touch anything and die. OOPS: no.
- If you take hydrowhatsit you will die horribly. OOPS: no.
- You or someone you know will die of the bug. OOPS: no.
- If you don’t follow strict lockdown guidelines, you will die or cause deaths. OOPS: no.
- If you protest against progs, you will get the bug and die or cause deaths. But if you protest for progs, you will grow strong. OOPS: no.
- A second wave, worse than the first, coinciding with the election, will kill millions. Stay away from the polls, and send your ballot in the mail, where it will be honestly counted by political operatives. OOPS?
Panic experts have been consistently wrong about everything. Yet people still believe them!
The most hilarious proof of the pervasive perverted influence of panic experts is CHAZ—-now CHOP, named for Monsieur Guillotine—the Seattle insurrection. Videos leak out of their struggle sessions, and the fools are wearing masks! These terrorists, thieves, and thugs ignore every rule and law of polite society, commit crime in the open air brazenly, but they are still scared crapless of catching some damned bug.
The experts must be sitting in their dank caves rubbing their hands together and cackling.
Want proof it is entirely political at this point?
— Swordfishtrombone (@TheyCallMeRyols) June 15, 2020
Little over an hour apart. pic.twitter.com/K2a7fGRNDd
— Mark Hemingway (@Heminator) June 15, 2020
— Askeladd (@TheAshenLad) June 16, 2020
Udpate Marc Morano sent me this screenshot from the hyperventilating Drudge Report, including that fraud Fauci’s quote.
Ignore Spikes In New Cases
See that black line in the picture below? Focus on it. Keep it in your mind.
The black line is the reported number of cases (positive tests) in the USA, using the exaggerated media numbers. See how small it is? It’s about 2 million at the end. That black line is wrong.
The other numbers are what’s really out there. These are the best guesses of the people who have already been infected or got sick (the cases). These are huge numbers. There are as many as 70 million Americans who already got this bug, most of whom developed no symptoms or had mild symptoms, like a cold or flu.
These people have not been officially certified by experts, so they don’t count. Testing makes them official. This is the experts call for new and increased testing. Tests are revealing these cases and they are being reported as if they are new. As-if new cases lead to headlines I have been showing you: Spike in new cases in pro-Trump area: stay inside!
Nobody knows the ratio of extant to genuinely new cases (the bug is likely still spreading to a small extent), but given the dropping deaths, it must be large.
The little black line is so small it’s hard to see, which is maybe why I’m not doing a good job explaining this.
The gist is this: ignore all reports of new cases. Where by all I mean every damned one. Haven’t we learned by now the media’s function is solely progpaganda? That is not a typo. Progressive-propaganda = progpaganda.
Look instead to the only number they have a hard time juicing, which we do next.
Here it is, the official CDC numbers of all deaths per capita. The latest weeks always are under-reported; it takes up to eight weeks to get the full totals, but most of the time it’s about two weeks.
The crisis is over. We had a late “flu season” this year, wherein a bug circulated in winter and did its damage. It’s the same everywhere we look, England, Sweden, wherever. Yes, people died, as they always do, and they died by the season’s bug, and by the lockdowns, via aggressive and idiotic medical protocols. “That guy coughed! Strap him to a ventilator!”
Here’s the blowup:
The dashed line are the all deaths minus the official COVID deaths (I don’t say actual, but official, and I trust you know the difference), but only up to mid June (I cut out the last weeks of data, since these are under-reported, as explained above). The second bump is therefore, officially, the deaths caused by something other than COVID. Like the lockdown: suicides, untreated cancers, and on and on. It was much worse in England, as regular readers will recall. (I did not have time to get updated England numbers, but it was already bad, bad, bad.)
Update Here’s another reason why all-cause death totals are the most trustworthy numbers. People going to hospital for other reasons are getting tested and then called as COVID hospitalizations.
See this Vanderbilt study referenicing " In addition, now that testing capacities have
increased, many inpatients are tested for the coronavirus regardless of their reason for
hospitalization. This results in “incidental” hospitalized COVID-19 cases..https://t.co/5xJy9NzExg
— Josh Stevenson (@ifihadastick) June 17, 2020
I’m skipping the global and USA daily model for two reasons (which those following along can do on their own anyway). One, there is little change from last week. Two, I don’t want the main message of this update to get lost.
Here is the main message:
That’s the weekly official coronadoom deaths. The crisis is over. The media’s death count is 10% higher than the CDC’s count: the media always goes with whatever can keep the panic going.
The “spikes” in “new” cases are (largely) BS. Only deaths and other hard physical measures like hospitalizations count. Deaths are dropping, dropping, dropping.
Show these pictures to people who are still quacking in fear.
And stop listening to “experts” who tell you it’s not necessary to “social distance” if you’re protesting “racism”, but you must if you attend a Trump rally. These people are liars.
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