All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update VII, Update VIII, Update IX, Update X, Update XI, Update XII, Update XIII, Update XIV, Update XV, XVI (doesn’t exist), Update XVII, Estimated True Infections/Cases, Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus, and the Sanity Check Perspective, so go to them first before asking what-about-this-and-that. Skip to the bottom for the latest model. Thanks to everybody emailing me sources, including Ted Poppke, Jeff Jorgensen, Jim Fedako, Joe Bastardi, Philip Pilkington, John Buckner, Harry Goff, John Goetz, Warren McGee, Robert Kinney III, Paul Hainey, Darren Nelson. https://www.wmbriggs.com/post/30606/. I’m way, way behind emails. We have to turn in the book soon.
I forgot to put the header earlier. This post answers the question below of where the estimates infections and cases came from.
BE AFRAID! QUIVER IN FEAR! PANIC!
The craven collaborator and would-be President Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York, desiring power for himself and loathing the people over which he has control “threatens to shut down Manhattan, Hamptons again if coronavirus social-distancing rules broken“.
Cuomo, on his knees before a mirror, wiped his lips and said, “The riots, lootings, violence, mayhem, and murder I allowed to rage throughout New York City for two weeks did not happen. The people I ordered to nursing homes did not die. And if you nice people take off your masks and get closer than six feet apart until after the election, I will have you arrested for disturbing the peace.”
Ignore him.
Ignore the “experts” who are trying to pee your pants and screeching like Karens about “second waves” and spikes! in new cases.
“‘I could guarantee you a biblical plague by Christmas,’ warns UCC Professor“. Spit in the eye of experts like this.
The graph is below—I need to know if you don’t understand the explanation—shows the estimated number of people infected and who were really sick (cases). These numbers are MUCH higher than the reported numbers. Testing will reveal these infections and they will be reported as if they are new. That which is already there will be used to keep the panic going. It’s testing of old cases called new which are causing “spikes”.
I don’t know how else to put it, but I am obviously failing to make the point. Help me make it better.
Panic Experts said:
- You can have the bug for up to two weeks before developing symptoms, and during this time you can spread it. OOPS: no.
- The bug can live on surfaces longer than Nancy Pelosi has been in office. Touch anything and die. OOPS: no.
- If you take hydrowhatsit you will die horribly. OOPS: no.
- You or someone you know will die of the bug. OOPS: no.
- If you don’t follow strict lockdown guidelines, you will die or cause deaths. OOPS: no.
- If you protest against progs, you will get the bug and die or cause deaths. But if you protest for progs, you will grow strong. OOPS: no.
- A second wave, worse than the first, coinciding with the election, will kill millions. Stay away from the polls, and send your ballot in the mail, where it will be honestly counted by political operatives. OOPS?
Panic experts have been consistently wrong about everything. Yet people still believe them!
The most hilarious proof of the pervasive perverted influence of panic experts is CHAZ—-now CHOP, named for Monsieur Guillotine—the Seattle insurrection. Videos leak out of their struggle sessions, and the fools are wearing masks! These terrorists, thieves, and thugs ignore every rule and law of polite society, commit crime in the open air brazenly, but they are still scared crapless of catching some damned bug.
The experts must be sitting in their dank caves rubbing their hands together and cackling.
Want proof it is entirely political at this point?
https://twitter.com/TheyCallMeRyols/status/1272364102933856256
Little over an hour apart. pic.twitter.com/K2a7fGRNDd
— Mark Hemingway (@Heminator) June 15, 2020
https://twitter.com/TheAshenLad/status/1272977930180755456
Udpate Marc Morano sent me this screenshot from the hyperventilating Drudge Report, including that fraud Fauci’s quote.
Ignore Spikes In New Cases
See that black line in the picture below? Focus on it. Keep it in your mind.
The black line is the reported number of cases (positive tests) in the USA, using the exaggerated media numbers. See how small it is? It’s about 2 million at the end. That black line is wrong.
The other numbers are what’s really out there. These are the best guesses of the people who have already been infected or got sick (the cases). These are huge numbers. There are as many as 70 million Americans who already got this bug, most of whom developed no symptoms or had mild symptoms, like a cold or flu.
These people have not been officially certified by experts, so they don’t count. Testing makes them official. This is the experts call for new and increased testing. Tests are revealing these cases and they are being reported as if they are new. As-if new cases lead to headlines I have been showing you: Spike in new cases in pro-Trump area: stay inside!
Nobody knows the ratio of extant to genuinely new cases (the bug is likely still spreading to a small extent), but given the dropping deaths, it must be large.
The little black line is so small it’s hard to see, which is maybe why I’m not doing a good job explaining this.
The gist is this: ignore all reports of new cases. Where by all I mean every damned one. Haven’t we learned by now the media’s function is solely progpaganda? That is not a typo. Progressive-propaganda = progpaganda.
Look instead to the only number they have a hard time juicing, which we do next.
All Deaths
Here it is, the official CDC numbers of all deaths per capita. The latest weeks always are under-reported; it takes up to eight weeks to get the full totals, but most of the time it’s about two weeks.
The crisis is over. We had a late “flu season” this year, wherein a bug circulated in winter and did its damage. It’s the same everywhere we look, England, Sweden, wherever. Yes, people died, as they always do, and they died by the season’s bug, and by the lockdowns, via aggressive and idiotic medical protocols. “That guy coughed! Strap him to a ventilator!”
Here’s the blowup:
The dashed line are the all deaths minus the official COVID deaths (I don’t say actual, but official, and I trust you know the difference), but only up to mid June (I cut out the last weeks of data, since these are under-reported, as explained above). The second bump is therefore, officially, the deaths caused by something other than COVID. Like the lockdown: suicides, untreated cancers, and on and on. It was much worse in England, as regular readers will recall. (I did not have time to get updated England numbers, but it was already bad, bad, bad.)
Update Here’s another reason why all-cause death totals are the most trustworthy numbers. People going to hospital for other reasons are getting tested and then called as COVID hospitalizations.
See this Vanderbilt study referenicing " In addition, now that testing capacities have
increased, many inpatients are tested for the coronavirus regardless of their reason for
hospitalization. This results in “incidental” hospitalized COVID-19 cases..https://t.co/5xJy9NzExg— Josh Stevenson (@ifihadastick) June 17, 2020
Coronadoom
I’m skipping the global and USA daily model for two reasons (which those following along can do on their own anyway). One, there is little change from last week. Two, I don’t want the main message of this update to get lost.
Here is the main message:
That’s the weekly official coronadoom deaths. The crisis is over. The media’s death count is 10% higher than the CDC’s count: the media always goes with whatever can keep the panic going.
The “spikes” in “new” cases are (largely) BS. Only deaths and other hard physical measures like hospitalizations count. Deaths are dropping, dropping, dropping.
Show these pictures to people who are still quacking in fear.
And stop listening to “experts” who tell you it’s not necessary to “social distance” if you’re protesting “racism”, but you must if you attend a Trump rally. These people are liars.
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Does anyone have a good source that discusses how long a person could test positive on a PCR test?
Peter: I doubt that information is available yet. It’s only been 5 months and there are hundreds of conflicting reports. Maybe by next year.
If there are second and third and fourth and fifth waves, then it’s exactly like flu, HIV/AIDS and all the other diseases that we simply deal with. So, Cuomo says forget lockdowns, deal with it (no matter what he thinks is coming out of his mouth for words—we do not hear his words, we hear the reality of the situation).
Did anyone check the UCC Professor’s frig for biological weapons, since that is the ONLY way he can guarantee a biblical plague.
Screw testing. There’s a 95% probability it’s as accurate as the GAO budget report and is used to created fear and loathing. Refuse to participate.
Listen to the experts? OOPS—NO NO NO NO.
People believe psychics and lying Democrats. Why should it be different with “experts”? Humans are stupid.
CHOP is reportedly down to three blocks. Seriously? THREE BLOCKS??? How stupid are the people in Washington?
CHOP “residents” are not wearing masks for the bug. They are wearing masks for the old-fashioned reason popular in the Old West.
Ignore all spikes. Works for Global Warming. Homogenize the data and the spikes disappear. Try it. See for yourself.
Honestly, people, Neanderthals were smarter than people today. They ran from saber tooth tigers and not from tiny lizards. They could tell their enemies from their friends and reacted without any guilt. Devolution these days right before your eyes.
According to Worldometers, there’s been a full week with reported deaths below 1000 per day. (I’m going to assume this will hold true until next season?)
Interestingly, the first day over 1000 reported deaths (May 31) and the last day of 1000 deaths reported (June 9) covers a 70 day span (gee).
We should be under 500 by Friday and with the exception of the usual Tuesday “bounce” (modest) we should remain below 500 and falling; under 100 by July 1.
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Peter,
Public Health England can give more ‘verifiable’ answers.
Or see the NHS web site. Even if you’re not from the uk.
Polymerase Chain Reaction tests detect genetic material specific to, in this case Covid19.
The PCR test will only test positive for as long as your body has not overcome the disease and cleared traces of the genetic material. This can be identified by repeat testing once symptoms have resolved. If you have had the disease, for example and tested positive, then a false negative test once you recover, is highly unlikely, two negative tests even better. Detection of genetic material doesn’t mean that the virus is still viable, obviously, as is true for the virus’s survival outside of the body.
]
The PCR Infection positive tests which detect RNA material of the virus are 99% accurate. In that case it is not interesting to discover ig the virus is dead or not but whether the virus has been or is present. THAT together with history and symptoms tell the rest. Like all diagnostics in healthcare tests are tools, not diagnoses.
The question about antibodies regarding reinfection’ is the unknown .
Just assumed/hoped status of someone once they recover.
Hi there! Anyone have the source for the Reported Cases/Estimated Cases/Estimated Infections? Is it listed in previous posts? Thanks!
Matt,
See above. I forgot the header which includes all past posts.
Fun stuff from India yesterday caused a massive spike in deaths on Worldometers (maye the most consistently mindless data source): 2,006 Indian deaths yesterday! Oh no! Worldwide trends had been heading south for weeks; now, we have a scary spike.
Except, from the accompanying notes:
“11,135 new cases and 2,006 new deaths in India
NOTE: Of the 1,409 deaths added today in in Maharashtra, 81 represent the actual daily increase, while 1,328 deaths (862 from Mumbai and the remaining 466 from across the state) actually occurred in March and April but were added only today after clearance from the state’s death audit committee tasked with taking the final call on the cause of deaths.”
Subtract that out, or reallocate it across April and May, and – maybe 600 deaths yesterday, but who knows what other creative accounting may underlie that 600? India’s peak reported deaths had been around 400 previously.
Go with 600 on a population of 1.4B. Noise. The innumerate simply cannot grasp scale.
I believe I had the coronavirus between January to late February. On and off with flu-like symptoms and exhaustion. This was before I knew of the coronavirus. I thought it was a long lasting flu. I realized later after the shut down that I already had the virus, thinking back. Does that mean if I went and got tested, I would show up as a new coronavirus case? Or would I not show positive for the coronavirus if I had it and recovered that long ago? I know viruses are dormant and don’t actually leave the body.
See cases and deaths by state and county here https://public.tableau.com/views/DailyUSCOVID-19CasesDeathsbyStateCounty/StateCounty?:language=en&:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
WM Briggs Thank you!
Bnon, an antibody test would be appropriate, why not order one.
Are the excess deaths (wrt 2015-2019) from dementia since Feb 1 related to C19?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Choose Tableau report “Total number above average by cause”.
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Thanks for all your work. I come here pretty much every day. Like your non-Covid stuff too. All great.
I know you have a massive amount on your plate, but I am wondering about the rt.live site, which had shown a steady but unspectacular decrease in R value, and then today (19 June) it suddenly has changed its formula, and guess what? PANIC!!! PANIC!!! PANIC!!! PANIC!!! WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!
https://rt.live/
« And stop listening to “experts” who tell you it’s not necessary to “social distance” if you’re protesting “racism”, but you must if you attend a Trump rally. These people are liars. »
Please do attend the rally, wear no mask, yell as much as you can, take deep breath, and everyone should kiss and hug each other. After all the virus is a hoax.
Your media lied to you, only the USA went into lockdown. There is no virus.
What better voter suppression than Trump killing is own voters.