All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update VII, Update VIII, Update IX, Update X, Update XI, Update XII, Update XIII, Update XIV, Update XV, XVI (doesn’t exist), Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus, and the Sanity Check Perspective, so go to them first before asking what-about-this-and-that. Skip to the bottom for the latest model. Thanks to everybody emailing me sources, including Ted Poppke, Jeff Jorgensen, Jim Fedako, Joe Bastardi, Philip Pilkington, John Buckner, Harry Goff, John Goetz, Warren McGee, Robert Kinney III, Paul Hainey, Darren Nelson. https://wmbriggs.com/post/30606/. I’m way, way behind emails. We have to turn in the book soon.
A thanks and apology to all those who have sent much valuable information. I looked through it all, but I haven’t had time to respond or to use everything that was sent.
My excuse is that I was full-time working on this:
We handed it in last week. It will be published by Regnery likely in early October. Word is title price will drop.
We’re almost done with these updates. But they from now on will focus entirely on the political side, because the crisis is by now entirely political. They will still seek control, and they’ll use things like “spikes in news cases” to push for it. It’s all BS, as we’ve seen before, and will keep seeing, likely for another month, or until they can think of something else with which to control us.
Of course, I do not entirely discount “expert” stupidity! Over-education and credentialism and the necessary inflation in a democracy causes idiocy to flourish:
This. Is. Incredible. @nytimes surveyed 500 epidemiologists. 35% of them said they were NOT currently comfortable “bring(ing) in the mail without precautions.” 70% won’t send their kids to school.
In other news, 35% of epidemiologists need to be fired now, and 70% by this fall. pic.twitter.com/LALtsN5Gee
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) June 8, 2020
UPDATE Watch this video.
— Karli Q ?????? (@KarluskaP) June 9, 2020
It was clear to the beginning to some of us, but I trust it is now obvious to all of us that the lockdowns are entirely political. The focus of the politics shifted since February-March, but it was always politics.
In the beginning it was politicians frightened for themselves. They spent February being anti-racist (our new national cult), and by March, when they realized their mistake, and not wanting to be blamed for it, in a panic they over-corrected and locked everything down. And started tossing the sick into nursing homes.
By mid-April they realized the true benefits of the lockdown. It was causing pain to those who might support Trump. This they loved. The Democrats went with Grabby Joe, a man sliding painfully into dementia. They knew they had little chance. The only “path to victory” was to derail Trump using any means necessary.
So they put the squeeze on, grudgingly opening up certain things, but insisting churches remain barren.
Then came the riots, pillaging, looting, mayhem, and murder. Which they openly supported. No social distancing required! Not if you were doing it in the name of the new cult. That “church” they gleefully left open, and to which they actively proselytized.
Many, many “experts”—the same advising the lockdowns—said “protests” (against what?) were more important than death by coronadoom. Exaggeration?
Mass protests that have erupted over police brutality toward black people in America are raising concerns about the risk of spreading the coronavirus. But some health experts, even as they urge caution, said they support the demonstrations — because racism also poses a dire health threat….
White supremacy is a lethal public health issue that predates and contributes to COVID-19…
There it is. The real problem is “white supremacy”, and of course Trump. Coronadoom was put into service in a color revolution that might even succeed. They have numbers on their side, but not, so far, the guns. This is why they’re going after the police. We’ll see.
There was also the hilarious folly of the hydrowhatsit papers, summarized here (a rare NRO hit), also based in anti-Trump maneuvering.
The apologies for the lockdowns have also begun: here and here. To “prove” the lockdowns saved lives, they use the same kinds of models that showed the lockdowns were necessary. Model confirming model.
I hope by now you have assimilated the truth that all models only say what they’re told to say. These models are told to say the lockdowns worked. And that’s what they say. It is not independent evidence.
Peter Hitchen’s useful link: A Library of Useful Links on the Virus Panic, for Thinking People
Do not believe any report of new cases, new infections, spikes or surges. These cases and infections are already there, but unmeasured. Measuring is turning them up. The only thing that counts is weekly all-cause deaths, the hardest numbers to fake.
The difference between the observed black line and what’s really out there is HUGE.
I only had time to do the USA.
Drop off from last two weeks caused by late reports. These will go up. The blow up is next.
The dashed is the all deaths minus official COVID deaths. The data is cut off: last week is not shown. And even the penultimate week totals will rise because of late reporting.
But you can see that, no matter what, this crisis is over. In reality. In politics, no.
I’ve said it until we’re all sick of hearing it, but these are models of REPORTED NUMBERS. It’s the media-based reported numbers that matter to the politics. These are not the actual numbers. The actual numbers no one really cares about.
Global reported totals:
New projected total reported cases 7.7 million, total reported deaths 400 thousand. BUT the last observation was 408 thousand! This merely means we’re at the end according to the model, which is only saying what I told it to say, which is that total reported numbers will resemble a logistic curve.
Daily reported new cases:
There’s the proof! The testing is revealing what is already there, as deaths drop. I’ve shown dozens and dozens of examples of how they’re using these tests to try and lengthen the panic. Do not fall for it.
Daily reported new deaths:
Looks like reported deaths hold steady. How can this be? Over-reporting. Don’t believe this until after we discuss the USA.
USA! USA! USA!
New projected reported cases, 1.92 million, projected reported deaths 103 thousand. Again, the latest reported media number of deaths was 105 thousand. Same story as with the globals.
Daily reported new cases:
Ignore the artifact at the left, which I’m too lazy to erase (it’s due to the differencing). Anyway, same story as with globals. Testing is revealing what’s already there.
Daily MEDIA reported new deaths:
Okay, it’s on the way down, media reports. The latest media report was 105 thousand. The latest CDC report is 93 thousand, a large difference. 7,000 is off this chart, even.
Here’s the big ta-da! picture:
THIS IS THE PIC YOU SHOW TO PEOPLE CLAIMING WE SHOULD STILL SOCIAL DISTANCE, LOCK DOWN, OR PANIC.
This, as I have been telling you all along, differs from the media reports, which we just saw in the daily reported death totals. The crisis is over, finished, kaput. Using official numbers.
Will governments use the media or CDC numbers in their decisions? Depends on which governments. Michigan will likely use media, Texas official. And so on across the great Red-Blue divide. Watch and see.
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