Coronavirus Update XVII: End The Farce Now

All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update VII, Update VIII, Update IX, Update X, Update XI, Update XII, Update XIII, Update XIV, Update XV, XVI (doesn’t exist), Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus, and the Sanity Check Perspective, so go to them first before asking what-about-this-and-that. Skip to the bottom for the latest model. Thanks to everybody emailing me sources, including Ted Poppke, Jeff Jorgensen, Jim Fedako, Joe Bastardi, Philip Pilkington, John Buckner, Harry Goff, John Goetz, Warren McGee, Robert Kinney III, Paul Hainey, Darren Nelson. https://wmbriggs.com/post/30606/. I’m way, way behind emails. We have to turn in the book soon.

A thanks and apology to all those who have sent much valuable information. I looked through it all, but I haven’t had time to respond or to use everything that was sent.

My excuse is that I was full-time working on this:

We handed it in last week. It will be published by Regnery likely in early October. Word is title price will drop.

We’re almost done with these updates. But they from now on will focus entirely on the political side, because the crisis is by now entirely political. They will still seek control, and they’ll use things like “spikes in news cases” to push for it. It’s all BS, as we’ve seen before, and will keep seeing, likely for another month, or until they can think of something else with which to control us.

Of course, I do not entirely discount “expert” stupidity! Over-education and credentialism and the necessary inflation in a democracy causes idiocy to flourish:

Politics

UPDATE Watch this video.

It was clear to the beginning to some of us, but I trust it is now obvious to all of us that the lockdowns are entirely political. The focus of the politics shifted since February-March, but it was always politics.

In the beginning it was politicians frightened for themselves. They spent February being anti-racist (our new national cult), and by March, when they realized their mistake, and not wanting to be blamed for it, in a panic they over-corrected and locked everything down. And started tossing the sick into nursing homes.

By mid-April they realized the true benefits of the lockdown. It was causing pain to those who might support Trump. This they loved. The Democrats went with Grabby Joe, a man sliding painfully into dementia. They knew they had little chance. The only “path to victory” was to derail Trump using any means necessary.

So they put the squeeze on, grudgingly opening up certain things, but insisting churches remain barren.

Then came the riots, pillaging, looting, mayhem, and murder. Which they openly supported. No social distancing required! Not if you were doing it in the name of the new cult. That “church” they gleefully left open, and to which they actively proselytized.

Many, many “experts”—the same advising the lockdowns—said “protests” (against what?) were more important than death by coronadoom. Exaggeration?

1,288 American Health Experts: Lockdown should not apply to anti-racism protests

Mass protests that have erupted over police brutality toward black people in America are raising concerns about the risk of spreading the coronavirus. But some health experts, even as they urge caution, said they support the demonstrations — because racism also poses a dire health threat….

White supremacy is a lethal public health issue that predates and contributes to COVID-19…

There it is. The real problem is “white supremacy”, and of course Trump. Coronadoom was put into service in a color revolution that might even succeed. They have numbers on their side, but not, so far, the guns. This is why they’re going after the police. We’ll see.

There was also the hilarious folly of the hydrowhatsit papers, summarized here (a rare NRO hit), also based in anti-Trump maneuvering.

The apologies for the lockdowns have also begun: here and here. To “prove” the lockdowns saved lives, they use the same kinds of models that showed the lockdowns were necessary. Model confirming model.

I hope by now you have assimilated the truth that all models only say what they’re told to say. These models are told to say the lockdowns worked. And that’s what they say. It is not independent evidence.

Useful Link

Peter Hitchen’s useful link: A Library of Useful Links on the Virus Panic, for Thinking People

Cases

Do not believe any report of new cases, new infections, spikes or surges. These cases and infections are already there, but unmeasured. Measuring is turning them up. The only thing that counts is weekly all-cause deaths, the hardest numbers to fake.

The difference between the observed black line and what’s really out there is HUGE.

Weekly Deaths

I only had time to do the USA.

Drop off from last two weeks caused by late reports. These will go up. The blow up is next.

The dashed is the all deaths minus official COVID deaths. The data is cut off: last week is not shown. And even the penultimate week totals will rise because of late reporting.

But you can see that, no matter what, this crisis is over. In reality. In politics, no.

Global Model

I’ve said it until we’re all sick of hearing it, but these are models of REPORTED NUMBERS. It’s the media-based reported numbers that matter to the politics. These are not the actual numbers. The actual numbers no one really cares about.

Global reported totals:

New projected total reported cases 7.7 million, total reported deaths 400 thousand. BUT the last observation was 408 thousand! This merely means we’re at the end according to the model, which is only saying what I told it to say, which is that total reported numbers will resemble a logistic curve.

Daily reported new cases:

There’s the proof! The testing is revealing what is already there, as deaths drop. I’ve shown dozens and dozens of examples of how they’re using these tests to try and lengthen the panic. Do not fall for it.

Daily reported new deaths:

Looks like reported deaths hold steady. How can this be? Over-reporting. Don’t believe this until after we discuss the USA.

USA! USA! USA!

Reported totals:

New projected reported cases, 1.92 million, projected reported deaths 103 thousand. Again, the latest reported media number of deaths was 105 thousand. Same story as with the globals.

Daily reported new cases:

Ignore the artifact at the left, which I’m too lazy to erase (it’s due to the differencing). Anyway, same story as with globals. Testing is revealing what’s already there.

Daily MEDIA reported new deaths:

Okay, it’s on the way down, media reports. The latest media report was 105 thousand. The latest CDC report is 93 thousand, a large difference. 7,000 is off this chart, even.

Here’s the big ta-da! picture:

THIS IS THE PIC YOU SHOW TO PEOPLE CLAIMING WE SHOULD STILL SOCIAL DISTANCE, LOCK DOWN, OR PANIC.

This, as I have been telling you all along, differs from the media reports, which we just saw in the daily reported death totals. The crisis is over, finished, kaput. Using official numbers.

Will governments use the media or CDC numbers in their decisions? Depends on which governments. Michigan will likely use media, Texas official. And so on across the great Red-Blue divide. Watch and see.

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14 Thoughts

  1. A few of us have all been swimming upstream Briggs especially you. But eventually sanity will return, however me and thee and our supporters will not be rewarded. The rewards will go to the false prophets.

  2. The panicdemic must continue. Reality has never had anything to do with the politics of the Left. All they care for is power, by any means necessary.

    We are at war. This has been another front in that war. We are losing, because we fail to fight where and by means that accomplish anything significant.

  3. According to WorldOMeter, USA has had 4 days in a row below 1000 deaths
    Even with the “usual” Tuesday “bounce”, I figure we’ve got a better than 50/50 chance that the USA won’t see a thousand deaths in a day the remainder of the “season”. After Tuesday/Wednesday, 100% chance there will be under 1000 “non-political” Corona virus deaths, nearing zero by the last week in June.

    Things are looking “good” for the UK as well.

  4. No problem with Covid any more. Just declare yourself a “protest” and then you can have as many participants as you want anywhere you want. Be sure to put up a big sign with the BS reason you’re protesting. Better yet, put the real activity but make it sound like a protest and work people into a lather!

    Considering the complete fabrication of data in the now retracted Lancet piece on the hydroxychloroquine study, I would not be surprised if 90% of data was fabricated. Really, it’s so much easier just to make things up than do the actual data gathering. And no one cares, right? After all, it’s only life and death.

    Most days I think Neanderthals were smarter than people today. Sure, they couldn’t get to the moon or use an iPhone, but if some fool came along preaching that reality is not real, they knew what to do with him immediately. Sadly, that skill is lost and we’re going down faster than the Neanderthals did.

  5. Steve: CNBC says WHO took it back–https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/09/who-scrambles-to-clarify-comments-on-asymptomatic-coronavirus-spread-much-is-still-unknown.html

    (subject to change in less than a minute, as all things Covid do!)

  6. Now they are splitting hairs.
    Regarding asymptomatic spread:
    The WHO has continually given out misleading and inaccurate information.
    “asymptomatic” simply means no symptoms.
    For influenza, people are contagious, to be blunt when they are in the productive phase.
    Hence advice early on in pandemic to stay home if you have symptoms.
    There IS asymptomatic spread and the data is available all round the world now rendering WHO irrelevant.
    They are claiming the few who never develop symptoms are very small. I’d wait until out own or some other reliable source comes up with a definite figure.

    Re the Lancet, I have noticed lately although not gone into detail, how often the Lancet has bee entangled with what looks like politics.
    I had their card marked already.
    Regarding quinine sulphate, it is a safe substance.
    The malaria drug which Trump took is taken by millions all over the place.
    Adverse reactions in very sick patients who are on an ITU ventilator and in multiple organ failure can go off with the introduction of any otherwise innocuous substance. The point is that they system has become chaotically out of control.

    Just like a climate model when nobody can remember which button they twiddled.
    They must recruit more expert twiddlers.

  7. I noticed a similar situation in Arizona where the reported cases are climbing, but the deaths are in decline. Arizona was running 50th in the nation on per capita in testing, but the state had greatly increased their testing in the past few weeks. Check out the cases versus tests graphic in the linked article.

    “Arizona confirms record daily number of new Covid-19 cases”

    https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2020/05/30/arizona-confirms-record-number-covid-19-cases.html

  8. As of today, MSM and “the experts” are back to trying to tell the masses that COVID is still a serious, serious problem and pushes health protocols.

  9. You might find this interesting. I don’t know why this has yet to be reported, but the CDC’s “Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease” webpage update on Monday included a new death that occurred in the week ending February 1, meaning it occurred either on that date or during the last week of January.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
    It is a week earlier than the previous first death in Santa Clara, which was two weeks earlier than the previous first death in Washington State.
    I downloaded the data to see if I could determine where it occurred. All states during that week currently report 0 deaths except for New Jersey. New Jersey has a blank, in only the deaths field, with the following note:
    “One or more data cells have counts between 1‚Äì9 and have been suppressed in accordance with NCHS confidentiality standards.”
    This means that people were dying on the east coast from CV19 at least a month and a half before lockdowns began. How widespread was it if people were already dying from it?

  10. “It was clear to the beginning to some of us, but I trust it is now obvious to all of us that the lockdowns are entirely political. The focus of the politics shifted since February-March, but it was always politics.”

    This is an idiotic statement. The vast majority of the world had stronger lock down condition than the USA. For ‘‘tis to be political it would need for the USA to be the only only country to adopt mitigation strategies.

    No country is about to let its citizens go to the USA and come back home without that citizens is put into quarantine.

    And US citizens are not about to be able to travel anywhere since no countries want to open their border to the USA.

    Many states are now seeing increased level of hospitalization close to the limit. Many cities are above capacity.

    By September, the USA will have over 250,000 deaths.

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