All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update VII, Update VIII, Update IX, Update X, Update XI, Update XII, Update XIII, Update XIV, Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus, and the Sanity Check Perspective, so go to them first before asking what-about-this-and-that. Skip to the bottom for the latest model. Thanks to everybody emailing me sources, including Ted Poppke, Jeff Jorgensen, Jim Fedako, Joe Bastardi, Philip Pilkington, John Buckner, Harry Goff, John Goetz, Warren McGee, Robert Kinney III, Paul Hainey, Darren Nelson. https://wmbriggs.com/post/30606/. I’m way, way behind emails. We have to turn in the book soon.
It’s Not Obesity. It’s Slavery. https://t.co/ZCt3MYlyPe
— Marc Lipsitch (@mlipsitch) May 25, 2020
True. Six of my eight slaves died from coronavirus. The price for new ones is really going to skyrocket.
A French designer has developed an oversized lampshade made of transparent plastic that encases a customer's head, an effort to entice diners to return https://t.co/4hekT9BhhC pic.twitter.com/CEChwBufBo
— Reuters India (@ReutersIndia) May 25, 2020
The designer was later found and returned safely to his asylum, sources say.
Now that the coronadoom panic is ebbing, and given that the left learned how easy it was to roil and enslave the frightened, they will move to something else.
They’ll try a “second wave”, sure. That will work to some extent, but after summer it won’t have the same cutting urgency. They’ll try Orange Man Bad, but, come on. With Biden’s incipient dementia, that’s not going anywhere.
They always have global cooling, also known by many other names. An ICD-10 code for dying from “climate change” is a clever move. Journalists, the enemies of the people, can latch onto it and trumpet daily “death tolls.” Hey: it worked with coronadoom. It is certainly worth trying. And so they are.
CDC Activities and Initiatives Supporting theCOVID-19 Response and the President’s Plan for Opening America Up Again (pdf)
Sixty full pages of bureaucratic brilliance. This is government by people sitting around a (virtual) table saying “I feel…” and where their feelings become law.
“Ask customers to wait in their cars or away from the establishment while waiting to be seated.”
“Reduce occupancy and limit the size of parties dining in together to sizes that ensure that all customer parties remain at least six feet apart (e.g., all tables and bar stools six feet apart, marking tables/stools that are not for use) in order to protect staff and other guests.”
Six has replaced 0.05 as the magic scientific number.
Scientists propose a 50 days on, 30 days off coronavirus lockdown strategy: “In an EU-backed study published on Wednesday, a cohort of researchers from nine countries simulated how various lockdown strategies would impact the spread of the coronavirus.”
I’ve tried to explain many times that models can only say what they’re told to say. All models. Every model. Even our models.
I make my model say “the shape of the viral outbreak shall resemble a logistic curve.” That was all me. Indeed, way back when this started, I created the model for fun as a class project, and only because so many were chimping out about “Exponential! Exponential!” (Which was always an impossibility.)
My initial model for the evolution of an insane reaction was woefully inadequate. I didn’t foresee how what was clearly going to be a routine pandemic (and all are deadly) would turn into a massive lurch toward the left singularity. There’s no excuse for this on my part, because I’ve been preaching its imminence for years!
Anyway, those models predicting more coronadoom and how we should have liberty on Tuesdays and tyranny of Thursdays are only doing what their designers told them to do.
Every single time you hear of a model—any model anywhere—ask yourself these two questions: (1) Why does this guy want me to believe it? (2) Has that model proven itself before in making skillful prediction of data never before seen or used in any way?
If the answer to (2) is “No”, be skeptical. If the answer to (1) is “THE SCIENCE says so”, run away.
Journalist death count: 92,464.
CDC death count: 73,639.
The CDC is about four days behind journalists, but it’s clear the number the media is touting is much higher. They’re all in their hovels now trying to craft the perfect headline for announcing they — I emphasize they — have broken the 100 thousand barrier. Watch for this. There will be a gibbering chorus of ecstasy.
President Donald Trump and members of his coronavirus task force are pushing officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to change how the agency works with states to count coronavirus-related deaths. And they’re pushing for revisions that could lead to far fewer deaths being counted than originally reported, according to five administration officials working on the government’s response to the pandemic.
This is why we’ll instead (below) look at the all-cause deaths. Nobody’s numbers can be trusted.
How Many Are Infected?
We’ve seen at last confirmation from the CDC that the case fatality and infection fatality rates do not match the naive rates—which we have been saying for weeks and weeks.
If you divide the reported deaths by reported cases, you get this chart, for the world and US.
Call these the naive case-fatality rates. Like we’ve been saying, there is no way this bug is killing 5-7% of those it infects, or even that many of those who show symptoms. (That these plots are on the way down, shows you that testing is increasing and deaths are falling.)
There are three rates we need to know:
- Raw fatality rate: number actual dead / number of people.
- Infection fatality rate: number actual dead / number of infected.
- Case fatality rate: number actual dead / number of symptomatic or hospitalized.
The CFR is the most ambiguous, because it’s not well measured. Does a person have to go to the hospital to count? Well, many are keeping away (always wise).
The IFR is clear, as is the raw fatality rate.
As of today: World Raw Fatality Rate is 0.000046. US RFR is 0.00028.
These may be taken as crude estimates of “Chance any person in the world dies from COVID” or “Any American does.” Are they small or large?
Anyway, we need IFR and CFR, which we can use to estimate the total number of actual infected people and actual cases. My own investigations, which come close to the CDC’s numbers are that the IFR is likely somewhere 0.0015 to 0.0026. The CFR is likely between 0.003 o 0.013.
These are in the range of all past pandemics where measurements exist; they are close to Swine flu, and given the body count, coronavirus looking like a Swine flu-like event.
We get this chart for the world:
The two solid lines estimate actual number of infected people; the dashed estimate actual cases; and the dotted is the reported cases. (I have yet to add this legend in the plot: ggplot2 is worse than an alchemists spellbook.)
Same for US:
You can see that the number of infected people, US or world, is much, much higher than the reported cases. As is necessarily true! This bland statement of obvious fact is what got Ioannidis in trouble with the The Science Says crowd.
As I have been warning you and we have been seeing, that they’ll use testing to reveal already-present infections as if they were new in an effort to keep the panic going. We see this below. And if you understand this, could you please share this notion with others so that we end this nonsense sooner?
US weekly all dead per capita (up to 2 May; last two weeks left off because they’re too low and will be adjusted upward greatly later; this uses all three sources linked from two weeks ago):
Raw numbers, with official COVID deaths subtracted:
Since the dashed line doesn’t drop as usual, this suggests the lockdown is killing people. Worse in England.
England & Wales week all dead per capita (up to 9 May):
Raw numbers, with official COVID deaths subtracted:
Again, since the dashed line doesn’t drop as usual, this suggests the lockdown is killing people.
NOTICE The Southern Hemisphere is just entering its cold & flu season. Look for the media to report deaths and infections in Brazil and elsewhere as if they were ignorant about the tilted earth revolving around the sun.
My fingers almost can’t write it, but these are models of reports not actual numbers. Reports are what count, to us, because it’s reports that make men mad.
There’s the logistic shape I told the model to say! New totals: 5.9 million reported cases, 350 thousand deaths. Last week “reported cases 5.2 million, reported deaths 330 thousand”. Convergence is coming! For deaths, not cases.
See what I mean? Testing has increased, and to a large extent the infections already there are being revealed. DO NOT LET THIS FRIGHTEN YOU!
The US accounting for about a quarter of all reports accounts for the drop, since it’s Memorial Day weekend. It will surely spike back up. The model does not know this, because I didn’t tell the model this, so it reports the prediction you see.
As long as we expect this, we won’t fear.
USA! USA! USA!
There’s the model, doing what it’s told again. New Totals: 1.7 million reported cases, 94 thousand reported deaths. Last week: “reported cases 1.6 million, reported deaths 88 thousand.” Getting there! We’ll see why the under prediction in the daily numbers.
Look how the cases refuse to fall! Boo! We already know why. The model does not see this, and so remains mute on it.
Same caution: Memorial day weekend etc. I’ve said 100 times, but this is reported deaths, not actual ones. The CDC is 10-15% lower than reports. Our model is under-predicting reports by about the same. Thus it’s probably a good prediction of actual deaths.
Anyway, we’ll soon have to find something to scare ourselves with.
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