CDC Correctly Predicts Second Wave
CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus this winter is likely to be worse https://t.co/SVbe9O0gMr
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 21, 2020
“There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through,” CDC Director Robert Redfield said in an interview with The Washington Post. “And when I’ve said this to others, they kind of put their head back, they don’t understand what I mean.”
Assault? As in strategically planned military attack? Ha ha! What a conspiracy theorist Redfield is.
Back in the real world…
“We’re going to have the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time,” he said.
Having two simultaneous respiratory outbreaks would put unimaginable strain on the health-care system, he said. The first wave of covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, has already killed more than 42,000 people across the country. It has overwhelmed hospitals and revealed gaping shortages in test kits, ventilators and protective equipment for health-care workers.
I wonder if Redfield remembers we had a flu epidemic and coronavirus epidemic at the same time, way back in April of 2020? And that hospitals, in spite of forecasts that said otherwise, did just fine?
That’s ancient history, so we can forgive him for forgetting. Here’s the real meat:
In a wide-ranging interview, Redfield said federal and state officials need to use the coming months to prepare for what lies ahead. As stay-at-home orders are lifted, officials need to stress the continued importance of social distancing, he said. They also need to massively scale up their ability to identify the infected through testing and find everyone they interact with through contact tracing. Doing so prevents new cases from becoming larger outbreaks.
This forecast has no chance of failing. The coronavirus known as COVID-19 will ever be with us. Even the US government cannot eliminate it. It will be here again in the fall. To predict it will kill and kill again is the easiest, safest disease prediction ever made.
So….what then? I’ve asked the question a dozen times, and I have not yet heard from nervous readers, should we lock down each fall for three to four months? If lockdowns work—which is dogma, an unquestionable truth—then you have to justify not locking down this coming fall, and every fall. Can you?
Let us know!
After adjusting for statistical margin of error, that means anywhere from 221,000 to 442,000 local adults in Los Angeles have been infected by the coronavirus. That number is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed COVID-19 cases in LA at the time the study was conducted earlier this month.
I’d bet it was/is higher still, given the limitations of the study. But that’s neither here nor there. Like I said in the weekly update, the act of testing will and is being used to (passively) juice numbers, to give the impression the virus is spreading. When it’s already here.
As of Tuesday, nearly 170,000 people had died of the novel coronavirus, at least according to official death counts. But using excess mortality data from around the globe, The New York Times has recorded an estimated 25,000 additional people who have likely died due to the pandemic, whether they actually contracted COVID-19 or it impacted their health in other ways.
To come up with this estimate, the Times looked at recent mortality data of 11 countries. More people had recently died in these countries than in previous years, but official COVID-19 death tolls only made up a small chunk of the increase. Spain saw 7,300 more deaths than usual between March 9 and April 5, while New York City has its typical death rate nearly quadruple in a similar time, mortality numbers show. These excess deaths added up to 25,000 among those 11 countries.
Recall that flu deaths are never counted, but estimated using statistical models to identify “excess deaths”. Recall too that it didn’t seem they were assigning flu deaths as coronavirus deaths, because of the way the flu-death pictures looked, but that they could. Now looks like they want to remove deaths assigned to flu and reassign them to coronavirus. A good way to get them numbers higher to match predictions!
If a man dies and has both flu and coronavirus, what should be his cause of death? Add heart disease. Now what. Add…etc. etc.
This NRO. It’s also asinine. Flu estimates are somewhere between low 30 thousand to low 90 thousands dead per year. Coronachan will come in somewhere about this range. Flu also kills over a couple of month period. Just like coronavirus.
This whole article is asinine, and makes the same mistakes of the New Atlantis piece.
What A Gas
I sure do hope so.
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