Update Trump eyes two-week quarantine, only drug and grocery stores open
President Trump, moving with haste to slow the spread of the coronavirus, is preparing a plan to mobilize the National Guard to help enforce a two-week quarantine of the public if his tough-love efforts so far fail.
The unprecedented action would require everyone to “stay at home,” according to a source knowledgeable of the evolving plan.
Update DOJ seeks new emergency powers amid coronavirus pandemic
One of the requests to Congress would allow the department to petition a judge to indefinitely detain someone during an emergency.
Original story follows
Martial law is here, though it’s been given a prettier label. For your own good. All of California, and all of New York are locked down, even though only tiny small areas of each state have had coronavirus cases.
Do people not remember how large and (in the old-fashioned usage) diverse these states are? The people in rural areas are being treated to the same level of suspicion of those crammed into cities.
Why just California and New York? There are cases in other states. They could spread, too. Why not lock it all down. Indefinitely. Well, that is of course precisely what is happening.
Andrew Cuomo, echoing California’s Gavin Newsom’s earlier justification, said, “I want to be able to say to the people of New York — I did everything we could do. And if everything we do saves just one life, I’ll be happy.”
There it is. Effeminacy triumphant.
We have become a nation of cowardly old women, frightened of everything, sure that our own horrible doom is around every corner. The old joke, so hackneyed I can barely make myself write it, is that a sweater is an article of clothing a child wears when its mother gets cold, has become official policy.
Think! Do you understand that If everything we do saves just one life, I’ll be happy can be used to justify anything?
Andrew Cuomo, 2021: “Climate change kills. Thus we must shut down all inessential activity and assert state control over certain industries. I want to be able to say to the people of New York — I did everything we could do. And if everything we do saves just one life, I’ll be happy.”
Insert, “the flu kills”, or “driving kills”, or “uttering unapproved opinions”. Insert anything.
How much ruin are we willing to accept to save just one life? The loss of thousand upon thousands of small business? The loss of millions of jobs? The creation of a huge new welfare cohort? Tell me. I’m listening. How much pain should we accept to save just one life.
A recession? A depression? Screw the economy. The economy is some abstract, heartless thing. Nobody except effete academics and the greedy care about “the economy”. What about people.
Newsom is saying martial law (under its nice name) will last “at least” eight weeks. He gave no indication how and under what conditions it would end. Cuomo was also noncommittal.
This does not amaze you? You are willing to accept house arrest for an indefinite and undefined period of time? You are willing to sit and cower as long as the media and your leaders say “Be afraid!” Of course you are willing. Stupid question.
I believe it will end, if only because it’s clear that our leaders are making this up as they go along, each looking to other for guidance, a process which guarantees a panic ramp up. But it need not ever end, of course. Because there will always be the necessity of martial law if we must save just one life.
We hear routinely how little savings most have. Job losses, which have already begun and will not slow, and going to cause people to lose their homes. How many losses of homes can we take to save just one life? How many suicides from bankruptcy are equal to an 85-year-old emphysema patient succumbing to coronavirus?
We accept personal contact even though it spreads killer flu, colds, HIV, a host of other messy STDs, and on and on. We accept people driving and it kills. We let people take walks even though some slip and break their scrawny necks.
What exact price is worth it for to semi-sort-of-kinda slow this souped-up cold virus? You must say. You cannot evade the question. Our politicians have not evaded it, and have answered it. They have concluded financial ruin is negligible next to saving just one life.
The only people who will survive this madness intact are politicians and oligarchs.
“Briggs, what about the numbers? Aren’t all going to get this, and when they do won’t most die or be disfigured for life?”
I’ll have another update Tuesday on the numbers. See all the old ones in this link. The best single set of numbers might be that cruise ship, which is likely to be the worst possible case because of the enforced mingling of people.
Had 3,770 souls on board, 712 cases or 19% population case rate, with 7 deaths, or 0.18% population death rate, and a 1% case death rate. Did you notice that not everybody got it?
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Liberal insanity in action = inaction, over-reaction.
By way of concurring with Briggs, I’ve been hollering from the rooftops that this social distancing and curve flattening nonsense might make things worse not better. Imagine such intellectual toys determining the direction and destiny of our great 2 ½ centuries old country! They may not only not stop or slow the virus as expected but they may well ruin the economy and cause collateral deaths due to lack of services and other unanticipated events. Like, in areas such as Los Angeles County and elsewhere where they are releasing criminals—some of whom may go on to crime, mayhem and perhaps murder. What an irony it would be to be cowering in a corner over fear of coronavirus only to be killed outright by a released criminal! Another instance is just the other day, I was driving up I-81 through Pennsylvania and was told that all rest stops were closed. I don’t know the reason for this, but if it’s social distancing then it’s a stretch. It could be nothing more than a way to penalize those who still insist on driving. But at what expense? Fatigue leading to accidents?
Now medical treatments are being denied on the basis of vague criteria like medical necessity and “elective”. Decided by whom? My wife needs an endoscopy. What if she has cancer which, if treatment is delayed, could cause her death? I dread to think. One thing I do see is that those making these draconian decision are not usually the ones who will suffer their consequences. They have not lost their jobs. Since he is inflicting so much misery on the rest of his citizens, I think the governor of Pennsylvania ought to at least forgo his salary until the all-clear is sounded. That would be leadership, wouldn’t it? Same thing with the Governor of Maryland.
Why aren’t the American citizens demanding this and other sacrifices from their leaders? They lock us down while denying themselves nothing! How feeble our democracy has become, just in my own lifetime. I assure you this would never have happened 60 years ago—we had real enemies who were constantly looking for cracks in our armor and we couldn’t kill our economy because some people are afraid of getting a bug that in most instances will not even put its victims in the hospital—that in, maybe, 20% of cases is asymptomatic. That is not the bubonic plague or a yellow fever epidemic. Yet we cower before it!
If this is truly a deadly pandemic, then we need to institute cultural triage.
Group 1: Those who will probably recover no matter what. (95%) Get back to work! Your government needs your tax dollars. And make sure your kids go out and play with the neighbors, to build immunity.
Group 2: Those who will recover, given prompt and proper medical care. (4%)
You can go to the hospital or gymnasium/stadium for treatment, while we have supplies and personnel. Or maybe take some quinine pills?
Group 3: Those who will probably die, no matter what. (1%) Stay home and be comforted by your families. It sucks to be over 80 and already have emphysema.
If quarantines are the right answer to this problem, then the quarantines must be held in place for at least 90 days. The virus has up to a 30 day latency period, then a two week active stage. Given that you have to keep the protections in place for at least two whole life cycles, that makes 90 days the bare minimum. 6 months would be better, just to make sure.
Think about that. The entire country shut down for three to six months.
No virus would do as much damage to the nation as this response would.
Speaking of flattening the curve: How does 7-12 years sound?
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-s37vwys1-_c/Xm7H2_gKc7I/AAAAAAAAO2E/u213V_0ZHS8Cqhu4SQEGo_-xSZjuopR3QCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Flattening_Bach_Medium.png
Skinner: I read a piece where in Pennsylvania truckers can’t eat or go to the bathroom. Rest areas are shut down and only drive throughs are open (18 wheelers don’t drive through). Delivery locations won’t let them in stores. Truckers are NOT happy and if they stay home, thinks will get ugly. Stupid kills very quickly on this scale. (I hope your wife is fine after she finally gets tested.)
The fact is all this crap about “saving one life” ALWAYS means we kill many more in the quest for the one person we parade around TV as saved. It’s used by the commies all the time. The chosen live, the rest die. However, if the rest AGREE to die in service to the dictators, I don’t see how we can call that bad. Refusing to fight to insanity is a choice and chosing to risk eternal servitude so you can be viewed as “caring” is still a choice. If people want to die in the cause of stupid, I don’t think you can stop them.
Anyone waiting for the election to be postponed because “it might save one life”?
They’re definitely preventing some deaths by shutting it all down. I’d be interested in an analysis of the question of whether expected Covid deaths prevented outnumber expected car accident deaths prevented.
acricketchirps: As McChuck says, how long will it take before this ends and no more lives are lost? Flattening the curve only means more hospital bed, NOT fewer infections. Do we lock down the country for a decade? How do we eat, how do live???? As soon as people go out, any straglers with the virus start spreading it.
Unless we have a cure or a vaccine, both of which could take years, we will simply delay, NOT prevent, deaths.
Cricket,
What if the analysis you are looking for concludes with p=.05 that we need to implement a measure that will guarantee you lose your job and have a greater chance of death while saving more virus victims?
Also, so called essential services like first responders and hospitals are actually luxuries made possible by the productive division of labor based on everything from energy production to agriculture to pizza delivery boys. Those are the essential roles in society because they keep the healthy alive. The healthy can only then take care of the sick. Like they say on airplanes: put your oxygen mask on first, the help the next person.
What I don’t understand is why if this is so deadly Trump, the health
guru’s, and reporters, are not wearing masks, goggles, and gloves during the
now daily pandemic briefings held in what appears to be a very small room.
Just whom is this one life Cuomo wants to save? Can we vote on a worthy? What if we try it the other way around; We sacrifice 1 life, and the Coroner virus leaves the field…
Scene, two years hence …
Cable new show breaks to president in White House.
President: We have word that organization X detonated a bio-war bomb in New York City. Word out of NY General Hospital is five folks are currently in the emergency room with slight coughs and fever. Folks, this is already ugly. Organization X has said they have similar explosives in all major US cities, ready to explode. From this point onward, I am declaring martial law and have instructed the military to take charge of our cities and streets. Once I am done, General Curtis LeMay will provide additional details. Questions?
Reporter 1: What about the US Space Force?
President: Fully funded. As are all programs.
Reporter 2: What about reports stating the five in the ER are not representative of the US population in general?
President: That is why anyone who questions the attack or our response will be charged with a hate crime.
Reporter 3: What about those who will suffer during the crisis?
President: We will be sending monthly check of $10,000 to every American.
Reporter 4: What about the US debt?
President: Sergeant, arrest that reporter for a hate crime.
Reporter 5: How are you certain the claim of a bio-attack is real and that the five in the ER don’t just have the common cold?
Folks everywhere watching from their our living rooms, in unison: Arrest that reporter on a hate crime!
Actions that would save way more than 1 life:
– disperse and permanently ban homeless encampments (explicitly excluded from the ‘no gatherings’ rule in CA. In a real epidemic, those poor people would be the first to die; here, they just provide an unsanitary reservoir for diseases. We love the homeless so much, we’ll just leave them to die in their own excrement, but not before getting the chance to spread this Kung Flu to every .)
– ban all homosexual activity (life expectancy numbers for gay men, and domestic violence incidence for lesbians are worse than for the general population.)
– ban Marxism (suicide rates are – anecdotally, I admit – much higher among the devoted comrades. Leaving out the whole genocide/mass murder thing)
– require sterile, single use plastic for all food packaging. Germs, baby!
Why not these merely prudent steps? It caused not a blink, let alone a tear, to (explicitly!) ban all religious gatherings right before Easter; pregnancy centers are closed, abortion mills are not.
Gee, this couldn’t be *political* now? In these dark times? Who could think such a thing?
NJ is shutting down all non-essential businesses today.
After all, the death rate is the dreaded OVER 1%!
Not mentioned: We have eleven TOTAL deaths in the state as of now.
Better shut down our economy and put millions out of work!
So Cuomo is shutting down abortion clinics, you know, to save 1 life…
Socialism by Mandate.
On the Diamond Princess:
“A total of 3,700 passengers and crew were quarantined by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare for what was expected to be a 14-day period, off the Port of Yokohama.”
And a total of 8 passengers have died. 8/3700 = (…carry the three) 0.0021621621621622.
That’s .2%, not 2%.
So, maybe I’m not a statistician, I’m also not a statist-ician.
Why are we tanking our economy, our 401ks, our personal wealth, our hand to mouth paychecks?
That’s not a rhetorical question.
And I liked what Skinner had to say.
Eight days ago, the state of Ohio said there were an estimated 100,000 cases in Ohio. So, given officials never lie, calculate the mortality rate in Ohio.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/487534-ohio-official-was-guesstimating-statement-that-100000-people-have
Pk,
“Also, so called essential services like first responders and hospitals are actually luxuries made possible by the productive division of labor based on everything from energy production to agriculture to pizza delivery boys. Those are the essential roles in society because they keep the healthy alive. The healthy can only then take care of the sick. Like they say on airplanes: put your oxygen mask on first, the help the next person.”
You are spot on. Every job is essential. Especially in the private sector because it is the horse that pulls the cart. The gov means not important to him. This Bastite’s broken window. We see the sick, we don’t see the unemployed, depressed, worried.
Becky –
Yes! The private sector sheds nonessential labor as a matter of course, which is why the left hates the free market. Only government keep nonessential labor employed.
I would note that marijuana retailers and liquor stores were determined to be essential. Someone realizes how ugly things could turn and is hoping for self-anesthetizing, it seems.
@ We accept personal contact even though it spreads killer flu, colds, HIV, a host of other messy STDs, and on and on.
We know a lot about the ‘killer flu’, we have a vaccine against, heard immunity, prior exposure, etc. No, Italy didn’t have hundreds of dead per day last year from the ‘killer flu’. Guess what, those folks that just perished in Italy were old last year too, with the ‘killer flu’ around. STDs do not spread around the globe if someone sneezes on you in a New York subway.
Not too long ago, Spanish Flu (which was named not because it started in Spain, but because Spanish first admitted it was a pandemic) killed 50M in Europe, as if WWI wasn’t enough. Think about it. It was before millions of flights full of people drunk-booking their tickets to all over the globe, so they can post their crap on ‘insta’ and such.
Italy actually has quite a recent history with high deaths rates due to normal, run-of-the-mill seasonal flus. Here is a rather thorough study published in August of 2019 on four flu seasons in Italy covering between 2013/14 to 2016/17.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285#fig0005
Over this four year span Italy suffered over 68,000 deaths attributed to seasonal flus, with the large majority of victims being the elderly. 2016/17 (an abnormally high year for flu deaths) alone saw 24,981 deaths. This works out to 68 deaths per day over that year. That number would have been much higher, and easily in triple digits, during the actual flu season.
The smallest total during this study was 7,027 deaths due to flu in 2013/14. This still averages out to over 19 deaths per day, with averages that would be much higher during the actual flu season.
To date Italy has had an average of 91 deaths per day since their first reported case of COVID-19 in late January. Yes, this number appears much higher than during a normal flu season, but this average covers less than two months versus an entire year.
Maybe if we sweeten the Donation Jar Professor Briggs will come with a complete exposition: https://www.wmbriggs.com/donate/
Dominus Vobiscum Fratres,
There was a lot written about the Corona Virus (CV) lately, but how about a bit different angle you will not likely read in your local newspaper;
1. CV is by its own definition a Biological Weapon category IV. In other words, the first virus in history which fully complies to be characterized as fully functional weapon of mass destruction.
a. fairly long incubation
b. yet already infectious during this period
c. extremely infectious by every means of contact
d. long survivability outside of host body
e. destroys primary organs especially lungs
f. high mutability, similar to HIV
g. no present antidote, difficult to develop
h. only a small portion of population (old and weak) in immediate danger of untimely demise. Virus is not particularly designed for the mass extermination of the targeted population.
i. only a developers would know this, but I suspect that there is a period after which this “epidemic” would suddenly disappear. Certain limited time frame effectivity included in a whole package of this particular design.
2. Due to this characteristic it is ideal, almost perfect to create the most desirable and potent part of the biological warfare;
IN CREATING THE PANIC WHICH WILL RESULT IN PARALIZING OF THE TARGETS ECONOMY.
It is irrelevant if the number of deaths in any targeted nation would be 2% or 20 %, that would be a secondary concern. Destruction of functioning economy is a primary target.
There is a specific reason why a basic flu which kills easily 30 000( +-) people a year in the USA alone, is not a concern and never could be successfully used for this purpose. Average healthy person will return to health after a week of feeling miserable and we got conditioned to it, no possibility of panic creation. People are not afraid of the known. For a good panic we need something more exotic and unknown with above mentioned characteristics.
That bring us to a couple of possibilities based on the fact that nothing in this Universe happens without reason by Accident. There is no such a thing as an Accident, only the insane capability of the carbon-based Human living form to do immensely stupid self-destructive things and Sin against God. We know now that it is not a naturally occurring virus, it was created in the lab. Of course, the question is in who’s lab. And the most important question of them all;
WHO WOULD BENEFIT MOST FROM IT?
Of course, I am very aware that a soft effeminate mind of average westerner is not capable of thinking on this level, for we are all brothers, we are equal, nice . . . enter any leftist snowflake idiocy here.
a. Did the CV “escape” from the Wuhan lab
In case of “a” it raises another question such as; “ How much was Canadian Lab in Winnipeg helping through 14 Chinese interns later accused of spying and expelled. Why in the right mind would Canadian Lab of that importance let members of very potentially belligerent nation to work and study there?
• Pure accident, which is not likely with almost absolute certainty, consequent lies to cover in embarrassment
• China has no lesser/economic weapon against Trump’s America at its disposal. Trump holds all trump cards. China could never be a Superpower the idiot talking heads were excitedly talking about for the last two decades. All their newfound wealth was due to American leaders diabolical idiocy (Clintons, Bushes . . .Globalists) of importing all relevant industries to China. Move enforced by insane levels of taxation and political pressures.
• China is about to lose those benefits under Trump
• Communist never particularly hesitated to “sacrifice” many of their own for the “benefit of all people”. . . OK mostly the ruling class of Politburo.
• Sadly, so called normal westerners are not capable of thinking on the level of Communists. That is why they are permanently surprised and paralyzed in their defence.
b. Was it imported to sabotage China
• Chinese premier mentioned it, but we of course quickly discarded such a “sick idea”.
• But the world economy was due to collapse with or without CV.
• CV is a great cover for the inevitable, the very convenient scape goat for the Globalist leaders who caused this financial mess and inevitable ruin of the formerly sane at least remotely Christian world order.
• Otherwise we would have to blame them, our Globalists malignant imbecilic politicians
• Was it an American soldier who brought it to China? Why not? The “El presidente” Trump and his people have a very limited control of CIA, FBI, even of armed forces. Those agencies are still under control of Communists. . . Ups, sorry I meant Democrats. Would they, just like Chinese commies, hesitate to create such mess for their very own benefit? The same truly evil people who let the Diplomat/Ambassador of the USA to be brutally exterminated in Benghazi while watching it on TV, who created Taliban, ISIS, White helmets. Totally destroyed Libya, attempted to do the same in Syria, which was, luckily for them, saved by Russia. Caused untold misery wherever they initiated another “colour” revolution? Only a standard western ignoramus (sadly, majority of people) or truly feeble minded would not be able to entertain such an idea.
• all of this would benefit Democrats immensely especially considering that everything at least remotely civilized they used to squash Trump failed miserably, and if this CV would fail their only option might be the “Dallas solution”.
• When Lefty diabolical Freaks get desperate there is nothing to stop them, they would sacrifice their own mother for the good of the Revolution.
So, yes Chinese could “accidently” release that pesky virus but if that was a political and economic move it does not make much sense. Only if that would be some kind of weird revenge. As I said before, their raise to wealth was only based on the premise of us sending our industries over there and subsequently the rest of the world would keep buying trinkets they produce. By releasing CV and subsequently collapsing the world economy they committed suicide. Nobody out there is buying Made in China, anymore. Are they truly that stupid?
On the other hand, the Globalists crowd or rather their fearless leaders, would be immense beneficiaries;
a. Cover the reason for the utterly inevitable failure of the Global economy and of the plainly insane and deeply immoral financial system they created and to this day fully control.
b. Destroy “Trump’s Economy” in one swoop and get rid of him in the next elections without necessity of buying any cheap Carcano rifles.
What does it mean for the average North American? Not much beside the fact that what was predicted for decades now by those few who still could exercise a discipline of Logical Reasoning while being discounted as “conspiracy freaks”, is not just coming anymore, it is here. Now there is nothing to do but enjoy the fruits of one’s own ignorance. A good look into mirror is in order. There is no innocent around here.
I do not claim that I know which one of these is an actual reality, the truth. Only a very near future would confirm that. There is a scary possibility that nobody knows, and everything is played as the minute of the day would bring it with subsequent freaky reaction to any new situation. After all, as I said many time before; “WE ARE LIVING IN THE AGE OF STUPID” fully developed IDOCRACY!
Deus Vult
Milan
To save one life our leaders would destroy the economy, ruin many lives, and sacrifice more than a few. Is this not something like a demonic parody of the Christian ethos expressed in the life of Christ Jesus? All must sacrifice and many must die due to an inordinate and hysterical response.
John 3:16 King James Version (KJV)
16 For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.
Deus’s thesis has merit: Trump represents an existential threat and they
have pretty much tried everything else to take him out. What better
fall guy than China… and an economic meltdown covers for the failing
funny money casino economy. Only the the very tip of the pyramid will
come out of this unscathed sitting on top of a mountain of gold.
…Just a thought…
Pk, ya lost me at p=0.05.
Coronavirus Disease = The Common Cold.
You may say, ‘but this is the novel, NEW Coronavirus!’ And I say:
1) Has there ever been a vaccine or cure for the Common Cold? If there hasn’t been, how is it they say there is a cure and vaccine for the new one?
2) How is it third world Africa has the expertise and technology to diagnose this very new virus? And the measure that is followed or proposed is a country lockdown. Surely there is a worldwide script here being followed.
Bart Simpson: ‘They are buying it, they are BUYING it!’ – https://youtu.be/4qUp9tAM_gc
So now we have
https://video.foxnews.com/v/6143785598001/
with “state-based information, safety and tips” and all .
If it’s Google it must be true.
That’ll fix everything.
I wonder how I can cash in on this fad.
@JimF
The data from Science direct you posted show spread over a longer period of time. Not to mention we know much more about transmission of flu and the tests are way more reliable. Mortality there shows per 100K and wasn’t very high.
In statistics, the distribution is what matters, not the absolute number. There are around 40K traffic-related fatalities in the US, annually, but it never happens that we have weeks with 20K or so, which would overwhelm the medical system.
That’s why the comparisons of this nature, although true, are meaningless.
We don’t get to tell this virus what to do, when to peak and how to strike.
It tells us.
Kalif –
Not to be pedantic, but … “In statistics, the distribution is what matters, not the absolute number.”
Statistics is silent on those questions … it is just a tool and not an acting human.
I think you meant the medical community is concerned with being overloaded. Fine.
The question the report asked and attempted to answer is why Italy has historical flu deaths that exceed other nations. That is meant to address the “we will be like Italy” fear. I believe report did just that (of course, you can always object with the “this time is different” assertion, but old saw is getting silly now).
As I stated above, ten days ago the Ohio governor and his chief medical officer said there were, at that time, 100,000 Ohioans with the virus. 100K. Those infected would have fully incubated, yet only three (3) Ohioans have died from with the virus (they may have died from something else, but they tested for the virus at the time of their death), with another 247 active cases (ones that rose to the level of seeking medical attention and warranting a test).
Very, very low mortality rate.
Our economy is purposely being destroyed. That is not a small thing, it is a HUGE thing. Our economy is how we feed ourselves, house ourselves, and pay for medical care. Our economy keeps our bodies alive. If it is destroyed, as it is well along the road to being so, people will not be able to feed themselves, house themselves, and get other care that we need to live. The deaths from suicides will soar when business owners lose everything they have worked for, and when parents can no longer support their families. Anyone remember stories of people jumping out of buildings in the stock market crash of 1929? What about heart attacks when people see they have lost everything? And other illnesses exacerbated by living with constant high stress? Loss of medical care for not-yet-serious medical conditions that are now allowed to progress into something worse? The fallout in collateral damage deaths will dwarf the deaths from this virus, which can now be cured with 100% success with the inexpensive drugs coming out now.
You ask, why are we sitting still for this. What exactly can we do when even our governors are locking down everything? Our church leaders are abandoning us? Do we just ignore them? Our phone calls and emails are simply dismissed. We have no real power. We vote them out in November.? We’ll be a third world totalitarian country by then. Good luck with elections in a dictatorship! We need to storm Heaven with prayer, asking God to forgive us for kicking Him out of so many of our lives and out of much of our society. He is our only hope.
“The U.S.A. will turn into Lombardy if we don’t DO SOMETHING!”
Hmmmm. Let’s run some numbers. I was shown a neato graph today. According to the graph, the U.S. had almost the exact same number of cases over the exact same time frame as Italy all the way up to March 11. Therefore, by extrapolating from Italy’s numbers, we should be at roughly 12,500 cases today.
But we’re at much more than that. Oh no! We outperformed projections.
Hmmmmm. Well, not exactly. The percentage population of Italy infected in the same timeframe was .2%. In the U.S. of A, it’s .1%.
Seem trivial? Consider this: if we were at .2%, we’d have roughly 33,000 more people infected than we have now.
But let’s take things a step further and look at deaths. On March 11th, Italy had roughly 470 or so deaths – I could only find the exact numbers for March 10th but it was around there.
Today, March 22nd, would correspond to the same point in the data as Italy’s March 11th…and the entire U.S.A. has 423 corona-chan deaths.
And we have 270 MILLION more people in our country than Italy.
Wash your damn hands, and relax.
Link here. I’m interested to see your take, Dr. Briggs: https://i.redd.it/knvop56063n41.jpg
Okay — Damn near all of us here (and people we know) understand what Dr. Briggs and the previous posters observe and describe. We are correct at every level. The panic is far worse than the disease. The martial law is the blunt axe “solution” imposed by people seeking power while paying little cost. The mindset effects of “temporary justified” authoritarian rule will be grave and far reaching.
Now, I’m serious here: What can we do about this? To whom do we shout? Or whom need we persuade? I’ve been in the ideology biz for decades — yet I haven’t seen this before and frankly don’t know what we can do. Maybe someone here does? Please share links or contact points with credible organizations?
P.S. To Malcolm — you’re using “chan” in the Japanese sense, right? 😉
Chan in the Japanese sense indeed.
Good questions.
The problem is convincing people of all of this. Nobody wants to hear it. A disease is an invisible enemy. People are terrified. Dr. Briggs is a statistician, but I’m not, and I’m not a Doctor – but the heads of major health organizations, and people who are advisors to the President, are all telling us this is something to worry about.
In light of that, and the many different numbers we keep seeing and keep having to interpret, who are you gonna trust?
Because the answer isn’t Malcolm the Cynic. I don’t see a way out of this one. We’re in for the long haul.
Responding to Malcolm: People need to stop being terrified. Two main reasons.
First: the data, the science, when understood and examined, show this virus is not “worse” than several of the others that were predicted to cause worldwide destruction (and didn’t). Dr. Briggs and other posters here have presented some of it; there is much more, I can post a link if that is allowed here. There is a ton of info, all of it pointing to favorable outcomes in the medium term. The fear is worse than the disease for the vast number of people.
Second and more controversial perhaps: A persisting state of fear is unwarranted for people who have an eternal life perspective as do Christians. People may recall that writers throughout the centuries marveled that it was Christians who cared for the ill during plagues and upon battlefields, sometimes losing their lives in the process. But Christians do not think life ends at human death.
A couple of years ago I was introduced to the book, Imagine Heaven, by John Burke. This serious presentation offers a systematic understanding of the Near Death Experiences and then connects the consistent features of the worldwide NDE reports with passages right in the Old and New Testaments. This book answers the final question for Christians: what happens when you die? It is the second most important book I’ve read in my life. It is a game changer.
According to Wiki, the current population of the USA is ~330,000,000 and the mortality rate (death rate) is 8.7 deaths/1,000 population. This computes to an expected 2,871,000 deaths this year, or 239,250 deaths per month, or 7,866 deaths per day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States
As a check, the CDC reports that in 2018 a total of 2,839,205 resident deaths were registered in the United States. So both numbers are in the same ballpark. (Note: these figures do not count abortion which is estimated to be ~850,000 per year).
The leading causes of death in 2018 were reported by the CDC to be heart disease, cancer, unintentional injuries, chronic lower respiratory diseases, stroke, Alzheimer disease, diabetes, influenza and pneumonia, kidney disease, and suicide in that order. However, abortion would be #1 if the CDC reported it.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db355-h.pdf
Thus in a normal year the USA experiences nearly 240,000 deaths per month (not counting 70,333 abortions per month). After a month of CoVID19, as of March 22, a total of 417 people have died in the USA of the virus. Deaths are increasing daily, and may reach as many as 100 per day. Restating the above, on a normal day without the virus there are 7,866 deaths in the country (not counting 2,339 abortions per day).
Is this a crisis? Is this “pandemic” so bad the country should be locked down, the economy gutted, and a new Great Depression instituted? Should retirement accounts be depleted overnight? Should we start starving? Because of a one percent increase in the death rate? Should we all cower in our mud huts because the mystery virus is gonna get us? Are we Dark Age peasants? Are we that pathetic? Can anybody out there do the math? Sheer madness indeed!!!
Of course we need to stop panicking. Unfortunately, the panickers disagree.
The panickers, by the way, mostly made up of the elites. Men on the ground – I work in retail – are much more skeptical and the ones who aren’t are the ones watching the governor begging people to stay inside.
Let’s not forget where the blame lies.
Trump or someone else should start publicizing a list of the top 10 causes of death by month and year to date. CV might not even show up in the top 10. The unanswered question is what is all the fuss about?
The official response to CV in nuts. This appears to have the same effects as a bad flu season. Sick folks should stay home, the rest go to work.
Not to put to fine a point to it.
It is astonishing that Taleb ignores all risk for our way of life that a near total shutdown of the economy due to a “ethical panic” as he advocates brings.
But then again, I might be too harsh. Perhaps he has thought about what happens to the economy when we follow his sage advice and its ramifications for the survival of our society and come to the conclusion that it would be close to zero. Undoubtedly he came to that conclusion be meditating on the impact on society if he were to stop doing whatever it is he is doing and multiplying this be 1 billion. It still was zero.
The economy will be just fine if the government helps everyone adequately.
Many company are it trouble because they wasted their money buying back their stocks. Doing so was very profitable for the administrator of those company. But it remove all liquidity from the company.
If individual are helped adequately and are able to make their usual payment on time. Once the crisis is past the economy will just return.
Since American are selfish and elect idiot to Congress and to the White House, you will be the only country worst of after the crisis.
Other countries like Canada had their debt in control for a while before the crisis. While American choose to finance their billionaire by the public debt, now stop whining and pay the price for the idiot you elected President.
The country will be less full in a few months.
“The country will be less full in a few months.”
Nothing like wishing death on people to tell us what you really think. I’m afraid your contempt has, as contempt often does, rotted vital parts of your mind.
Josh Postema,
It is a statement of fact not a wish.
Canada had debt under control. . . ???? I guess that is truth if under control means that country is completely bankrupted and led by collection of imbeciles malignant narcissistic communists. No problem there.
Trump is God sent, but he cannot save the USA by any means. At this stage it is impossible. He will only postpone inevitable, which is still better than Canada which will, as an idiotic concept from the get go, finally disintegrate. It can never recover economically and politically it is and ungovernable socialist mess. Corona will just give a fine excuse to cover behind, to blame for. . .
Canada’s national debt is $20 k/capita
Québec provincial debts is $23k/capita
US national debt is $68k/capita
Seems that the USA are a lot more bankrupt than Canada
Canada’s debt to gdp is 34%
Québec debt to gdp is 48.1%
USA debt to gdp is 104%
You’re god sent is leading you into the ground
Yes, Mr. Allard and unemployment is only app 7%, inflation well under 3% in Canada. All depends on who is fudging the numbers today, they missed only by about 10% in each case. But what one would expect from commies? As for debt, again fudged numbers, but you are correct, in that; there is no other nation in the world more indebted as the USA. Thanks to succession of many idiotic Globalists governments they kept electing , especially Clintonites and Hussein Obama. That is a great part of why I did say that even Trump cannot possibly save the USA. The game is over for the whole, at this stage truly criminal, financial system. It is ready to collapse any minute CV or no CV. CV is only a convenient cover. In that case the Titanic of Canuckistan will follow the original barge 5 minutes later to the abyss of failed countries.
By the way I do live in “Peoples Republic of Canuckistan” and it is my job to know the real numbers. So yes, God send me . . . as giving me life. In case you just misspelled and meant Trump; We could only wish we would have him leading Canuckistan instead of that imbecile Little Turd Trudeau. Of course LTT is not a problem, the conglomerate of idiotic truly deranged voters who managed to put him into a position of power . . . well, that is the real and most likely unfixable problem at this stage. But for some reason I think this is off topic now.
God bless, . . . you will truly need it!
Have you checked your temperature lately, you seem quite delusional.
You would fit well in the USA
Ha, ha. . . and one more time Ha!
God bless,
Where was the ny gov when my parents threw me in a room to play with other varicella positive children? Ya know kids and adults died from it. As with many other diseases, underlying medical conditions made you more susceptible to dying from it. And we will all die from something sometime. So whats is this fubar about saving even one person? Can one of the many infected ny’rs please cough in his general direction?