How’d We Do On Our 2019 Predictions?

A strong no prize this year. Nobody did well enough. Not enough specific predictions, or those that were specific did not come to pass.

Doom predictions are too easy: they needed to be hard on details to score well.

Don’t forget to see yesterday’s post to register your best predictions for 2020. This ought to be a doozy of a year, so don’t be afraid of giving us your best.

Briggs

1. I said Trump would survive an assassination attempt, to which I assigned very low probability. Many rumors, but no verification whatsoever. The faux impeachment in no ways counts: it was pure political theater.

2. I had RGB crapping out. She’s still, according to some sources, above ground. Though I’m not sure this has been verified beyond media sources.

3. I said there’d be a corporate push against meat, an effort joined by all the usual suspects. This was true, but rather obvious, so few points were scored.

4. “Every single day, save Sundays, there will be at least one media outlet running an ‘impeachment’ story.” Mostly right: but they did Sundays, too. Again too easy.

5. This one I really did think would happen: “Universities are increasingly requiring diversity statements for hiring and promotion. These oaths of fealty to ideology will begin to be required for top positions at corporations. There will be at least one such announcement or story on this in 2019.” I was informed Microsoft makes these statements a mandatory part of promotions, but I haven’t yet seen where they are mandatory for being hired.

I am unable to discover whether this occurred. Surely it must have. The effort really stepped up at universities. I might award myself points even in absence of verification, because I am King.

Richard Hill

1. “A significant new power source such as fusion will be discovered.” Nope. The new EM drive, as I predicted, turned out to be self-deception.

2. “The NYT will become pro-Trump.” Only in the sense that they didn’t call for his execution.

3. “It will become fashionable to worry about lack of male primary teachers.” It did not.

4. “China will be accused of chemically brain-washing Muslims.” Not only accused, but caught at it.

Michael Dowd

1. “Trump popularity improves year end 2019 vs. 2018.” The overall numbers did, but so did the acrimony.

2. “Dow Industrial Average up year end 2019 vs. 2018.” Yep, by a lot, too.

3. “Pope Francis is asked to resign by College of Cardinals but refuses.” This must be wishcasting.

Dan Diego

1. “The impeachment process will be initiated and passed by the House. However, once considered by the Senate in a trial presided over by the Chief Justice of the SCOTUS…”. First part yes, second part no.

2. “The Stock Market—especially the S&P/Dow—will continue on its roller coaster course but end the year higher overall.” They did.

3. “The USA will continue on a sad course of bitter division, implemented by obama, inc. There will be no resolution, though several high profile cases will be decided at the SCOTUS. The number of police officers killed in the line of duty will continue increasing. The DOJ will step in and intervene, a la Ferguson, in at least one high profile case.” The division did increase, but the rest didn’t happen. The DOJ is still deep state.

4. “Congress will punt on the border/caravan/asylee/refugee issue—and the Roe v Wade case, as well—kicking the proverbial can down the road.” Yes, but too easy.

5. “The USA will make significant strides on the international front; improving relationships with China and North Korea and recognizing Palestine as a legit state.” This happened, but there was some push to bomb Syria and other random harmless strangers.

Red Forman

1. “Fault lines will become externally obvious between the progressive and orthodox factions within the Roman Catholic Church. Words not commonly heard for a long time will start squeezing though the Overton window: ‘anathema, heretic, antipope, etc.'” The schism has not yet arrived.

2. “All existing Christian denominations that maintain an orthodox faction will begin to internally polarize over racial and sexual issues. The effects will be chiefly observable in their various leadership assignment processes.” This is true, but in sheer numbers the modernists are winning, especially in leadership positions; scarcely any are going our way.

3. “The demographic effects of homeschooling (in college admissions, hiring, mate selection, religious landscape) will begin to show…” Not yet.

4. “Christian Healthcare sharing services will begin to be a cultural force. Decoupling health insurance from the corporate job will permit Christians to begin moving toward enclaves….” Might happen, but it hasn’t yet.

Shecky R

1) “Trump & Pence both out of office before end of August and President Pelosi sworn in…” This actually happened, but the media has been hiding it from us.

2) “Mark Zuckerberg ousted or resigns as CEO of Facebook before year’s end.” Nope, and his censorship of Truth has only escalated.

3) “Dow Jones Ave. settles between 16,800 and 18,200 in first half of year before rising again.” Nope.

4) “George and KellyAnne Conway remain married through December 31, but KellyAnne not employed in Gov’t. at end of year.” I have no idea, and refuse to look, about her marriage, but I think (and did not verify) that she’s out.

5) “Google patents a viable, mass-marketable jetpack for consumers.” Only in purging Reality-based results.

Jim Fedako

1. “RBG retires”. Didn’t happen

2. “US troops remain in Syria”. US troops everywhere, which is the consequence of empire.

3. “No wall is built, or even started”. Reports differ; what’s there can be called a start, but it can’t be called a wall, either.

4. “Trump remain president”. Yes, but easy.

5. “International trade wars escalate, with Trump the escalator-in-chief”. Only in a minor way.

DAV

1. “Pelosi will see to it that Trump is not impeach (a la Bush)”. A la oops.

2. “Trump will get border wall funding”. Ah, no, not really.

3. “RBG will be replaced”. Sadly, no.

4. “at least 1/2 of my predictions will be correct”. Math forecasts are the easiest to verify; No.

Uncle Mike

1. “The US House will impeach Trump, the Senate will convict him, and he will be removed from office by armed US Marshals. Michelle Obama will emerge as the next Dem candidate for POTUS.” Only the first part was right. But there were many persistent rumors, many surely in the form of trial balloons, about elevating the person Bathhouse Barry is married to.

2. “Wars will rage across the globe, and multitudes of innocents will slaughtered by bullets, bombs, and poison gas. The Elites will cheer…” This one is always true, so no points.

3. “The economy will careen into the Next Great Depression. Birth rates will plummet as electronic devices neuter the population…” First hasn’t happened, but the second has in all but Africa.

4. “At least 4 (four) states will enact carbon taxes as the grasping kleptocracy fleeces the sheeple for whatever remains…(three) more western cities will burn to the ground.” The cities did burn, but I don’t think anybody but California made the theft legal. Am I wrong?

5. “Global temperatures will fall as neo-glaciation accelerates.” They did. Greeland was swamped with snow, for instance. Real temperatures continue to disappoint environmentalists, but after the official adjustments are applied, they are again happy.

Sander van der Wal

1. “Facebook will loose 30% of its users during 2019, worldwide.” Stats I looked up had it rising by about 100 million. No sense of any drop.

2. “We will know the true nature of Q before the end of the year.” It was me. I adopted the name after growing weary of R.

3. “The Yellow Vest movement will grow in Europe.” It didn’t. But the Dutch farmers took tractors to street.

4. “Merkel will resign before the end of the year. Macron will not.” Alas, no.

5. “Trump will get the money to build the Wall.” Nope.

wjb

1. “Economy will not collapse or enter a recession. It will only become stronger.” This was so, and with bells on.

2. “Facebook will reverse it’s descent and stock will go back up. It will continue to leech data from users, but no one will care. They will be more careful about getting caught.” All of this was true.

3. “A piece of art (book, music, etc) will be celebrated until it is revealed a computer created it.” I don’t think this happened, or no ruse was revealed.

4. “Minimalism will die. New coffee shops, retail stores, and restaurants will embrace a baroque style. Design will become complicated and ornate. Articles in the NYT and WSJ will proclaim lavish decor to be ‘in.’ Stores/businesses currently embracing minimal style will close at greater rate.” If this happened, I haven’t heard about it. Can it be verified somewhere?

Plantagenet

1- “There will not be a no deal Brexit and Theresa May and her government will survive.” Boris says nyet to both.

2- “Justin Trudeau and his government will lose their majority and only survive as a minority, or coalition.” He not only survived, he was reelected!

3- “The next nominee to the Supreme Court of the United States will be female, social conservative, and Catholic.” This may still be a live prediction, after, of course, we get a dead justice.

4- “The Anglican Church of Canada will vote to recognize ‘gay marriage’. It will also try to keep hold of Anglo-Catholics and other conservatives by passing some form of ‘protection’. Numbers will drop again!” The wording is mushy, but they allow “blessings”, and I believe some rogue “priests” do the ceremonies, and some Anglican branches are on board, but it’s not yet general, the Africans holding back “progress.” Anyway, numbers are still falling.

5- “Predictions of a recession will be common by the fourth quarter, though it will not take hold till 2020.” None yet.

Sir John A.

1. “Never mind Brexit — one of Hungary, Poland, or Czechia starts making noise about leaving the European Union.” Hungary came closest, without actually leaving.

2. “Jordan Peterson becomes a media darling as the MSM figures out that they can make more money by holding him out as a prophet instead of a heretic.” This sort of happened, but his prominence has been dropping.

3. “Justin Trudeau is re-elected in Canada, likely with a majority, and the national NDP party gets clobbered. Canada will be back to its two-party system again: (il)Liberal and Conservatard.” Yep.

4. “China will advocate in the UN for reductions in sanctions against North Korea. China will also provide economic aid to North Korea….” This didn’t happen openly.

5. “SJW’s in North America will protest when the New Zealand national rugby team performs the Haka at the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan, citing cultural appropriation.” I wish.

Kent Clizbe

1. “Unhinged PC-Progressives in Congress, aided and abetted by the PC-Prog media, will launch multiple investigations of Trump, Trump’s family, Trump’s businesses, Trump’s associates, and other aspects of Trump’s life. These investigations, and the clearly unhinged nature of the Democrat Congress and their media enablers, will increase Trump’s support among the majority of Normal-Americans, compared to the end of 2018. Measure: Gallup Presidential Approval Poll, whites: Dec. 30: 49%”

When I checked this on 24 December, Gallup had 49%, adjusted.

2. “Unhinged neoconservatives will continue to push for American participation in more wars, in more countries, to aid their foreign sponsors, with no American interests at stake. Measure: Diatribes for more wars, in more places in the NYTimes…other neocon publications.” Well, yes, but this is a sun-rising-in-east prediction. No points.

3. “The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives will spend massive amounts of resources celebrating and announcing various ‘firsts’ associated with their members’ ethnic/sex/race/religious backgrounds. Measure: Number of ‘firsts’ announced will exceed 10.”

This might have been so, and was about women in certain posts, but they spent too much of their energy on Trump.

4. “American citizens will continue to die at the hands of illegal aliens. Measure: Number of American citizens murdered by illegal aliens.” True enough.

5. “The campaigns running up to the Democrat primaries will be disgusting media love-fests, slobbering over mediocre nothings due to their PC-Progressive demographic characteristics. A multi-billionaire, man of the people, will dominate the money and influence race, and will lead at the end of the year. Measure: Polls of Democrat primary candidates as of Dec 31, 2019.”

The first part is too easy, and it’s not clear about who’s really front now. Still crazy Uncle Joe? Pocohantas? Buttghey?

Sylvain Allard

1. “If there’s an attempt on Trump life the culprit will when of his base tire of winning nothing.” We never tire of winning.

2. “Muller will deliver proof of a qui pro quo between Trump and Russia.” To summarize: HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.

3. “The supposedly fake dossier will be proven to be mostly accurate in court. Though it’s already mostly proven accurate.” To summarize again: HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!

4. “Trump will end-up in jail thoug for his criminal enterprise, call it karma for all his victims (those entrepreneurs lead to bankruptcy and those you got trapped in his scams).” Too much wishcasting, Sylvain.

Rivercity

1. “The President will declassify the FISA warrants that are central to the special prosecutor’s investigation.” Sort of. The IG did.

2. “There will be a ‘hard’ Brexit for the UK. The EU will not offer a solution for the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.” If there was a border “solution”, I heard nothing about it.

3. “RBG will remain on the Supreme Court until she dies sometime in 2019.” She breathes yet.

4. “US will withdraw the majority of troops from Syria and the total number of US troops overseas will be less in 2019 than in 2018.” I don’t think this is so, in total, but I’m willing, and even hopeful, to be corrected.

5. “Antifa activity will result in multiple deaths.” Not yet. Give them time.

Milton Hathaway
1. “By April 15th, Trump negotiates a trade deal with China. All tariffs dropped.” Not quite, no.
2. “{censored; you can’t predict stuff like that here}”…

6. “DJIA crosses 28k by June 15th, and 30k by November 15th.” Didn’t hit 30,000, but close.

7. “Citing evidence that the MSM has become indistinguishable from a political party, SCOTUS rules unconstitutional any and all limits on political speech or campaign spending by any entity.” How nice to think so.

8. “Rap music goes the way of disco.” Best prediction of the lot. Anything we can do to make this happen, I’m for it.

Larry

1. “The delivery business (UPS, FedEx, etc.) will continue to prosper.” And how.

2. “More malls will bite the dust.” This is why the and how; or, rather, this is for the same cause.

3. “More illegal aliens will enter through our southern border.” Golly.

4. “Grocery stores will continue to sell firewood bundles for those cool evenings.” Not in certain localities, which fret over global warming.

5. “BBQ will remain a southern (and Kansas City) favorite.” It had better.

GamecockJerry

1. “The SC hearings to replace Notorious RBG will make the Kavanaugh hearings look like Meghan’s royal wedding.” Not yet, but soon, soon.

2. “Gold will rise above $1,500. Dow will be down again this year.” Gold did rise over $1500 in September, fell a bit, then came back. Dow did not.

3. “The Trump tweet storm after the Mueller report shows no collusion — but lots and lots of petty BS from the Deep State FBI/DOJ — will be breathtaking and cause Romney to crap in his magic underwear and write another doofus op-ed in the Bezos rag.” Who is this Romney?

4. “Troop levels in Syria, Afghanistan and S Korea will be cut in half.” Umm…

5. “Hellary will attempt to enter the Dem Pres race.” This hasn’t happened—yet.

Nate

1. “US astronauts return to the ISS in a SpaceX dragon crew capsule.” I don’t think so.

2. “A major killer disease has a breakthrough cure discovered — one of the cancers, heart disease, dementia, or diabetes.” If it happened, they’re not saying anything.

3. “Dissident right websites will continue to operate and gain readership as measured by Alexa. Sites such as vdare, unz, taki’s, the z man, and our esteemed host will see readership rise. Is this considered a dissent right site?” They did, and yes, this is.

John Francis Opie

1) “High and increasing levels of government debt will make it impossible for central banks in Europe and Japan to raise interest rates meaningfully (greater than 75 basis points in 2019) in 2019. The Fed will raise interest rates at least two times in 2019, worsening government financing of the US government debt. As a result, higher US yields will start to distort capital markets, leading to a worsening of the US terms of trade as the US dollar increases in value.”

Instead, rates were cut at least three times.

2) “The ‘deep state’ will prevent President Trump from achieving any additional campaign promises out of a sense of spite and entitlement.” They’re sure doing their best.

3) “In Germany, the AfD will continue to post gains in polls while at the same time becoming unable to enter into any meaningful local government coalitions (greater than 250k population) due to rejection by the established parties.”

I believe this is so, but am unsure of the exact numbers.

4) “Neither railguns, battlefield lasers (non-naval) nor hypervelocity missiles will reach the field except as propaganda exercises. Naval lasers will remain test-bed fieldings for proof of principle.” I can’t verify this, but I believe it is so.

5) “There will be no major war with one of the three major nuclear powers (US, China, Russia).” None.

Phil

1. “The Northern Ireland issue surrounding Brexit will be resolved without too much consternation. The posturing on the pro-EU side will be dropped and this will lead them to realise a ‘no border’ solution is the only workable one.” I don’t think anybody really cares, at least, not with everything else going on.

2. “The Tory party in the UK will either put a pro-Brexit person in the PM’s chair or it will experience turmoil or collapse.” They did, too.

3. “The London housing market will continue to decline — THAT’S RIGHT BRIGGS, IT’S CURRENTLY DECLINING.” I BELIEVE YOU.

4. “Facebook will come under increased scrutiny from both Wall Street and from legislators.” Nah, not really. All for show.

5. “The progressive Democrats will find the candidate that they are going to rally around — most likely Warren or Sanders — and this person will receive perpetual glowing media coverage (thereby eclipsing the same media’s coverage of these candidates in the previous election cycle).” They haven’t settled on their champion, or championess, yet. But that the media will slaver over whoever it is goes without saying.

Anon

1. “GWB, or Bush Jr., has 1) decided to turn evidence on the so-called ‘deep state’ (feel free to use any term of your choice; the meaning is the un-elected ‘leaders’ of the formerly free country known as U.S.A.) or, 2) as a result of 1) or independently of 1) turn up dead and will be celebrated to a revolting degree by the mainstream media.” You lost me. But no elite has ratted out any other elite, so far as I know.

2. “This is more wishful thinking that a prediction: a true accounting of the sex fund payouts that Congress doles out with U.S. taxpayer monies.” Very wishful.

3. “Doom will fall on tech lords, like Dorsey, Zuckerberg, et al. I’m not sure what form this will take, as a cratering of stock or their outright removal or the declaration that their services are a ‘public utility.'” They have not yet received their comeuppance.

4. “Ms. Markle may no longer find herself welcome or a part of the House of Windsor, even with certified royal issue. The negative press is starting, and it will not relent. Standards must have plummeted or perhaps QEII wasn’t paying attention.” This is another one of those many rumor situations, but nothing happened.

5. “The end of the pontificate of Francis. Not sure how, death or resignation, but his mere presence is renting the Bride of Christ.” Alas, no.

John Moore

1) “Trump will be impeached but not convicted”. Yes, sir.

2) “Russia will attack the Ukraine without hiding behind ‘little green men.'” They did not, though as we have been following Ianto, there was lots of behind-the-scenes politicking with the Orthodox churches.

3) “Mitt Romney will stumble, biting off his tongue. Okay, that’s a wish, not a prediction.” Who?

3) “(for real) Mueller will issue his report, and there will be no collusion with Russia in it. Democrats will ignore it.” Well, yes, and no.

4) “A new sexual/gender ‘oppressed’ group definition of some sort will appear, and anyone not immediately praising it it will be viciously attacked”. Trannies don’t count, for they have been with us a while.

5) “The stock market will close lower at the end of the year than at the start (and yes, we *did* have a correction in 2018)”. Nope.

HGS

1. “Politics. UK gets a new conservative PM. USA keeps Trump and gets a wall.” Yes and no.

2. “Economy. USA dollar and GDP and employment stronger. EU Euro and GDP and employment weaker.” This looks mixed for EU, solid for USA.

3. “International. Trump and Chinese talk tough but make a liberal (i.e. weaker barriers) trade deal. Also Trump calms Putin/Russian anxiety syndrome (I know this cannot be measured).” Feels softer to me, so this is a hit.

4. “Church. Anglicans formalise the split between the progressive centred at Canterbury verses the several orthodox groups, to be centred on Jerusalem. The Pope informs the world that he is really a good guy.” The split in neither church has yet arrived in any finality.

5. “Science and Policy. To save the planet from warming, both Australia and NZ effectively ban usual farming practices of using herbicides, fertilisers and animal medicine. (Big call but it is coming).” Not yet, but we can agree it’s coming.

2 Thoughts

  1. Best revisit the Canadian parliament calls. Plantagenet was right and Sir John was wrong. You had the opposite.

    Btw, who won?

  2. I don’t know if you monitor old articles, but I have an interesting question about DAV’s predictions.

    Let’s say that DAV’s Nr. 2 prediction is right. I know that it is a moot point, akin to debating whether three chin hairs are a beard, but let’s assume the prediction is correct for the sake of discussion.

    What happens then with prediction Nr. 4 ( “at least 1/2 of my predictions will be correct”)?

    In a sense, it is both right and wrong. You could say it is right, because then two predictions would be right and, therefore, prediction 4 would obviously be right. But you could also say it is wrong, because then only one prediction would be right and, therefore, prediction 4 would obviously be wrong.

    Maybe the solution to the conundrum is obvious to you, but it baffles me and I would appreciate your take on it.

    And thanks for writing a blog that is always thought-provoking!

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