As has been our tradition these many years, it’s time to register our predictions for the coming year. We look at how well we did last year later this week. (As early as tomorrow, depending on the Stream schedule.)
Stretch your minds. Remember that forecasts which are not perceived by the “average” man as difficult receive little weight. Saying there will be a murder in Chicago, says this fictional homme moyen sensuel, is like saying the SPLC will identify a new “hate” group. And thus the guess receives little weight in the standings. Say instead that Hillary pleads guilty to a felony, which no man expects, and receive the Grand Prize. If it happens.
Here are my pearly prognostications. What are yours?
1) I was wrong about China coming to blows with a regional neighbor last year, but I repeat the prediction this year. I do not mean war. I mean armed contretemps.
2) Dennis Rodman completes his “transition”, migrates to North Korea, and guides Rocket Man into choosing seven interesting tattoos. The flunkies who follow Kim Jong-un with notebooks emulate their leader. By July, all North Koreans will sport a lower lip piercing and a tattoo of a nuke launching on their left cheek, and a holocaust of Japan on their right. But since the ink comes from China, a pandemic of various skin diseases will ensue.
3) Bill Nye will “come out”. Seriously.
4) Donald Trump will, at the close of the year, still be President.
5) As in the Stream article, I still predict the “Supreme” Court waffles on mandatory cake-baking for sodomitical celebrations. We saw that the evil (not just wrong: evil) folks on the Oregon Court of Appeals upheld the killing, crushing $135,000 fine for not baking a cake. Say it slow, and think of your bank account when doing so: one-hundred-and-thirty-give-thousand dollars. For not baking a cake. Repeat it. This is a punishment that fits the “crime”? Can even the appalling Anthony Kennedy be happy with it? Or does he wish it higher?
6) I don’t think DSM-VI will appear in 2018, but given (the not-universally loved) DSM-V contains the politically incorrect diagnosis of gender dysphoria, and given things such as Trump’s incorrect decision not to challenge trannies in the military, some prominent group of psychologists or psychiatrists will announce a man believing himself Napoleon must no longer to be considered a mentally “ill.” Did I say Napoleon? I meant woman.
7) Non-statisticians will continue to love p-values more than statisticians. (Because they are magic.) Even though everybody is free to buy the inestimable Uncertainty and learn the Third Way of probability, AI, machine learning, statistics.
8) Poland leaves the EU, or publicly and loudly begins threatening the process. Hungary announces they will be next.
9) The Islamic city-state, or rather Protectorate, Malmö is formed. I jest, but only just. Sweden will, in some official sense, declare certain areas of its once sovereign territory Islamic. The near-daily bombings and routine mayhem will force this upon them. It would happen in France, too, except France is too big, whereas the livable land in Sweden is small.
10) Pope Francis exits.
Only predictions made over the next two weeks will count. And please, please number them and point to the source (if necessary) that can verify them.
My prediction of Wilders winning the Dutch elections failed miserably. The Dutch populist movement is growing, but Wilders has been neutralized.
Lucky for us, there’s a new kid in town: Baudet. The Left, and the Liberal Right (which are the original European Liberals) is demonizing him like crazy. Out of necessity, because Baudet is able to draw away plenty of voters from the Right. Wilders will keep a lot of voters, say 10% of the votes, which will result in the populists growing.
The current coalition appears unstable, with 4 parties including the pro-euthanasia and converged Liberal party, D66, and the anti- euthanasia converged Christianity party, the CU. They already had a row when D66 started pushing their euthanasia agenda last month, even though the parties agreed to put the right to euthanasia on the back burner for the duration of this coalition.
Now for the prediction. This year there will be elections for the city-level administrations. This will result in the populist movent growing bigger, and the coalition getting a virtual minority in Parliament. This will put a lot of extra pressure on the coalition, but the government won’t fall because of that.
However, if it is proven that the Democrats pulled all kinds of illegal tricks on Trump, changes are that the fallback of that will put enough stress on the coalition to break it.
Regarding Poland and Hungary leaving the EU, I don’t see that happening this year. The EU need a mayority vote for real sanctions, so Hungary and Poland can protect each other by voting against all sanctions. Austria is already moving in their direction, and Germany will too is Merkel cannot create a coalition with the SPD.
I am afraid Briggs is right regarding Sweden. The fallback of that happening will be a major boost for the European populist movement, though.
Sander – there’s a term for ‘converged Christianity’. It’s ‘churchianity’ or ‘churchian’ – they are leftists who worship the power, wealth and organization of the church, not our Lord and Savior. See, for example, the current Archbishop of Canterbury and the majority of the Anglican bishops.
Predictions: 1) Several thousand more pedophiles will be arrested, but this year, it will finally get reported in the news.
2) The Republicans will lose the US Senate in the fall midterm elections. Partly by design (can’t have any of those pesky pro-America, pro-God conservatives messing up the lucrative deals with their friends, the leftists), and partly because the establishment is increasingly hated by the base, who will simply stay home and not donate.
3) The US Navy will finally get its head out of its fourth point of contact and institute the simple yet necessary reforms outlined just before Christmas. This will take several years to implement due to bureaucratic inertia and embedded Obamanites, but the first steps will be taken this year.
4) The Secretary of Defense will note the wording of the idiotic and unlawful court orders regarding transgender troops, and will order the cancellation of the policies implemented by his predecessor without an executive order. After all, the policies were implemented without one. He will also order the removal of women from the combat arms, including all warships, but not aircrews. When leftist court officers object, he will respond that they don’t have standing or jurisdiction over military good order and discipline.
One of the most immutable forces on earth will continue entirely unabated. Human nature.
My prediction for 2018 is a direct armed confrontation between Iran and Israel.
1. One third of Trump’s cabinet will resign (individually and throughout the year).
2. A hacker (individual or organization) will expose the details of the congressional slush fund to payoff assault victims, leading to at least ten resignations.
3. Bitcoin’s value will be below $100 by year-end.
4. IRS will begin earnestly auditing bitcoin transactions.
5. 2018 Academy award winner for male best actor will be caught up in a harassment scandal and be forced to return his Oscar.
6. US will continue to spark a revolution in Iran, throwing the country and region into greater disarray.
7. The Church of England, followed by other European state churches, will declare the Bible no longer culturally or spiritually significant.
8. Steelers will win the Super Bowl.
9. Trump will start a trade war with China, impoverishing both countries in the name of MAGA.
10. Cultural nonsense will intensify at top-ranked universities, with “conservative” parents doing whatever it takes to send their kids there, all the while condemning the very doctrine turning their kids.
1. The neocon conspirators in the US establishment will continue to instigate wars, large and small, for their foreign sponsor in the Middle East–and elsewhere. MAGA continues morphing into Make the Neocons’ Sponsor the Center of All We Do! Jared Kushner continues to burrow into the control-panel of American foreign policy.
2. The PC-Progressives/neocon “Russia collusion” accusations will come back to bite them. A glimpse into the depth of the Clinton cabal’s corruption and cash-for-favors, involving the Clinton State Department and the Clinton Foundation, and various foreigners, including Russians, will be revealed. At the same time, another investigation will expose the massive Mossad influence operation behind nearly all Never Trump groups.
3. The stock market will crash.
4. Trump will continue to talk tough on immigration, but the wall will not be built.
5. Fake “conservative” media will continue to ignore the beheadings, rapes, murders, drug-running, and worse committed by Hispanic gangs in the USA, and Latin America, while pretending that what happens in Iran or other areas 5000 miles from our borders is crucial to our interests.
6. The long, slow slide into an ice age will continue. Global-warming scare-mongers will continue spouting off end-of-the-world nonsense, and will continue linking everything that happens in the weather to that wily molecule of evil, CO2.
7. Some Christians will continue to obsess over Islam’s rise in Europe, while at the same time their own sects descend into perverse rejection of the tenets of their religion–personifying the Bible’s admonition against focusing on the mote in another’s eye while there is a log in one’s own.
I did very “meh” last year.
POLITICS / GEOPOLITICS
1) Korean War II? Not sure what form it will take. “Police action” or “China intercedes”… But some level of conflict more than just tweets about Little Rocket Man will happen on the peninsula.
2) Republicans keep the Senate, maybe even gain a seat or two. I’ll also go out on a limb and say that they keep the house as well.
FAMOUS DEATHS
4) George H.W. Bush
5) Sean Connery
ECONOMICS
6) S&P ends the year up 5% from the start of 2018.
7) BLS seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate (LNS14000000) will drop below 4% during the year.
SPORTS
8) Super Bowl: Steelers. Wishcast? Hey, Tom Brady can’t win all the time…
9) World Series: Dodgers.
1. Maduro overthrown in Venezuela
2. TWO Supreme Court openings, neither gets filled
3. Federal Reserve will do one rate CUT during the year
May it please God, I agree with Briggs’ #10.
i predict my prediction will be wrong.
Clint,
Best comment ever! Right on.
2018 is very much prep for a much more interesting 2019 so some of this is preamble:
1- The Trump admin will continue to have a revolving door membership, and will fill the next 10 months with new policy some of which will actually survive. Then in the fall the republicans will lose at least one house leading to policy gridlock. The media will champion all those who stall government movement, then by and by blame the administration for not getting anything done.
2- The Anglican Church will drift closer to schism. In Canada the last year of relative peace before the vote on gay marriage in the summer of 2019. After which the center will not hold. Anglo- Catholics will desert, Evangelicals will remain but will drift further away. A Liberal Church will be banned from all Anglican policy decisions and conferences, but won’t care. In the UK it will only be a matter of time before the reckoning comes as well. I should add that despite its various heresies a lot of good work is still done with the poor, elderly etc…
3- Theresa May survives until Brexit is finalized in. 2019, then all bets are off. I doubt Boris Johnson takes over, but Jeremy Corbin just might as he courts the millenials in virtually all areas…but though I think Labour may win the next election I think he will not try to move back to Europe and his base may desert him
4- Marc Bergevin will be fired as Montreal Canadiens gm and another rebuild kicks off. Tampa Bay wins the cup.
5- Sorry people New England wins the SB
6- The Yankees try to buy a championship…again…but Cleveland finally gets its WS
7- Russia…playing under the Olympic flag wins the hockey gold.
8- Germany wins the World Cup
9- Edward Feser and David Bentley Hart are on the same panel discussion somewhere and the police are called to separate them.
10- Briggs is hired by Columbia University and asked to draft the “Safe Zone”policy.
1. Patriots win again.
2. Economy roars.
3. Market stops rising but doesn’t crash.
4. Fed raises rates twice more.
5. Briggs get sent for re-education to Brown U.
All,
I’m adding this in abstentia for Micheal Matt at The Remnant.
A New Year Prediction: Vatican Will Greenlight ‘Gay Unions’ in 2018.
1- The Democrats will not win the House.
2- The Republicans will pick up 2-3 Senators.
3- The US GDP will be 4%+.
4- There will be funding for Trump’s wall.
5- Electric cars will remain under 5% of sales.
6- Gas will go under $2 a gal.
7- If there is a war with North Korea Trump will not use nuclear weapons.
8- Railguns and lasers weapons will become operational on Navy ships.
9- Nationwide conceal carry reciprocal will become law.
10- Trump will appoint at least one more Supreme Court Justice.
11. There will be no Trump impeachment.
12- Coal exports will increase 50% or more.
13- Global Warming will become a non-issue as it continues to get colder because of the dearth of sunspots.
14- Crop failure because of cold around the world will continue to increase.
15- The Shia and Sunni conflict will intensify killing more Muslins than Infidels but the attacks on Infidels will also increase.
1)The US will pre-emptively attack North Korea, either by shooting down a missile test in boost phase, or by directly attacking strategic targets to end North Korea’s nascent super-power status. One way or another, North Korea will lose its ability to strike the US mainland with missiles, or to launch an EMP attack against us (the one capability they might already have, and by far the most dangerous): https://pjmedia.com/trending/2017/06/06/emp-commission-chair-warns-on-north-korean-emp/
2) The market will suffer a major correction. Sadly, I have bet on this one for the last 5 years, at considerable loss in paper gains.
3) Some new PC sexual craziness will erupt with virtually no warning. Many organs of society will conform to the new insanity as fast as they possibly can, and those who do not will be held to be as odious as slave owners (not counting Muslims, of course).
And also, a quibble and a prediction.
4) Gender dysphoria is no doubt a real problem for some people. Humans are amazingly variable in behavior. But as for prediction… believing that one is of the opposite gender will continue to be applauded, in spite of the obviously psychotic nature of such beliefs. Many more people will “become transgendered” as their imaginations are stoked by the constant publicity. Many tragedies will ensue.
What made you believe that “Poland leaves the EU, or publicly and loudly begins threatening the process”? I’m genuinely curious, because it looks as if you believed all the nonsense about Poland spread by mass media. Now, you might be technically correct, Poland might be *forced* to leave EU, but it won’t be a voluntary decision (the majority of people here and both the “liberal” opposition *and* the “conservative” government want to stay, though obviously for slightly different reasons…)
1. USA economy goes sideways via GNP and jobs. Which is an achievement. The share market is kept where it is by the FED. Interest rates flat line. The FED finds other creative ways of defaulting.
2. More Republicans continue to gather around the Trump agenda, enough to create more reform before they lose a house majority.
3. EU continues to slide down economically.
4. EU holds together as weakened institution, while anti EU vote goes to 40% across the region. Poland and Hungry stay in, just. It is dead men(women) walking.
5. GB leaves EU with deadlock in the negotiating process, and goes sideways economically (good going) and much more Statist politically (in more and ever more creative ways). The NHS remains the Godhead of all Brits.
6. China wins the ‘Bulling’ war in the South China Sea against small countries, but finds a comprise with Japan, which will be nuclear by year end. Trump intervenes and wins a diplomatic laurel.
7. The Middle East never really changes, but Egypt gets closer to Israel and Iran smashes their revolution and gets closer to Russia. Trump wins by staying out of it.
8. Russia cuts off energy to the EU next winter due to escalating political tensions. Trump intervenes and wins via diplomacy, and Putin comes in a close second.
9. Pope Francis goes totalitarian and fires all conservative high flyers. The Catholic Church fragments and one new centre is in Poland.
10. The Anglican Church bans the Bible. An alternate centre in Jerusalem takes over from Canturbury.
11. I remain a very happy and grumpy old fool.
FilipG,
Legutko: https://www.wmbriggs.com/post/20185/
Pingback: How’d We Do On Our 2017 Predictions? – William M. Briggs
Let’s try this on for size. I’m aiming for “Didn’t see that coming,” but still plausible.
1) ISIS is not eradicated nor is it pushed out of Iraq. It remains roughly static, but near the end of the year experiences an upswing in enrollment.
2) With the weakening of American power projection, Iran and Iraq come to a back-door diplomatic agreement. They form a hidden-but-known uneasy alliance with Syria, Lebanon, and Pakistan, driving Saud and Turk closer together. Each maintains an uneasy but cordial relationship with Putin’s Russia.
3) The US launches cruise missiles into some dump in the Middle East. Russia shoots them down semi-successfully as a demonstration of power.
4) The Ukraine comes firmly under Russian control, though a pro-EU resistance remains.
5) Trump ‘does nothing’ (according to the media) for the first six months. However, he gains control of the FBI and most other organs of the executive branch, culminating in some high-level rapid-fire hiring-and-firing that finally breaks through the radio silence.
6) There is a semi-successful bomb attack on either the White House or Congress.
7) Duterte nearly dies due to mysterious circumstances (poisoning, car accident, the like) and goes on the war-path.
8) Switzerland makes noises about leaving the Schengen Agreement. Brussels plays hard, until they realize the Swiss mean it. Switzerland remains in Schengen, but with some formalized unprincipled exceptions on the issue of immigration.
9) A small but serious right-wing coup fails in Japan.
10) Tchad begins to court Chinese patronage after an especially bad series of attacks in N’Djamena about which the US only makes a token effort.
1) Bitcoin values will crash, though the values of other crpyrocurrencies will increase modestly.
2) There will be another summer’s worth of riots in major US cities, touched off by Trump policy declarations.
3) Sweden will double down on its permissive immigration policies and anti-religious views, resulting in increased unrest within the country.
4) Despite protests, any changes to Iran’s regime will be merely cosmetic.
5) Republicans will lose the House majority.
6) The US government will be forced to address mounting debt by some major event, like a market correction. Both parties will propose solutions, but no real fix will be achieved.
7) The sexual misconduct scandals will uncover 2-3 additional major offenders before fading into the rear-view mirror. The next ‘tipping point’ scandal will probably involve doctors and the way they’ve prescribed opioids.
8) At least 1 state will decriminalize consensual incest.
9) Mocktails become a major beverage trend; ‘soyboy’ becomes a more mainstream slur (related)
10) New England again for the Superbowl
I’ll try again – ‘again’, because a few are the same as last year or only slightly amended. Don’t know which year but they’ll come in sometime in the next decade.
1 – A Christian baker, to demonstrate their lack of bigoted prejudice will offer free cakes for same sex marriage divorce celebrations.
2 – Military will be called into a Muslim no-go area in Sweden (or somewhere in Europe).
3 – A Central European state (eg. Hungary or Czech Republic) will hold a Brexit type vote. (a repeat of last year’s prediction).
4 – Putin will join Trump in a campaign to reduce Iran’s influence (almost a repeat of a failed prediction last year).
5 – Israel will annex parts of Judea & Samaria (all, I hope).
1. Electoral upset in Italy in Q1 or Q2 of this year. Eurosceptics will get in and be, at the very least, a thorn in the side of the Eurocrats.
2. The Irish repeal the 8th amendment and decriminalize abortion without fully understanding the ramifications of their vote.
3. Brexit gets boring as negotiations enter the phase that renders the process non-controversial.
4. IF there is political instability in the UK and Corbyn gets in THEN the pound sterling takes a big dive.
5. We stop talking about Bitcoin.
6. London housing market melts down, possibly taking the British economy down with it.
7. Trudeau’s approval ratings slip further as Canadians realize that he is using what used to be his father’s office to work through his daddy issues in public.
I’m not much of a pro football fan, but I’ll make a prediction based on wishful thinking:
It’ll be a Pennsylvania superbowl: Steelers vs Eagles, and I’m betting on the Eagles.
1. Bitcoin will end year over $20k, Ether over $2k. Will have to wait till 19 to see if Macafee will eat himself.
2. GDP will average over 3.5% for the year, leading to GOP gaining seats in both Senate and House.
3. Bill Clinton beats HWB to the grave.
4. A SC Judge will announce their last year is 19.
5. There will be a 10% correction from 2017 year end but no stock market crash.
6. Academy Awards speeches will hit soaring heights of hypocrisy. I’ll have to read about though.
7. Steelers win.
1.The greatest swamp drainage in history will occur as Trump appointees purge the Federal government of 25 years worth of leftie functionaries. Much lamentation will issue from the newly discarded.
2. The economy will surge as the S&P 500 reaches 3,000 and the Dow 27,500 by June.
3. Hillary will be indicted.
4. Dems will be crushed in the mid-term elections, but so will be the Republican incumbents — who will be discarded in record numbers in the primaries.
5. The Wall will be built.
6. California will elect a Republican governor.
7. The Left will go batguano crazy, again.
8. Hundreds of GBLT-owned businesses will be boycotted into bankruptcy.
9. ObamaCare will finally kick the bucket.
10. Summer of 2018 will be the best summer ever!
1. Columbia University will add Community Organizer to the list of available majors.
2. California citizens will successfully petition a referendum to secede. The proposition will fail when undocumented residents vote en masse against it.
3. Kim Jong Un will compete in the Mountaineering event at the Winter Olympics.
4. Bergoglio will step down as Pope and vie for leadership of the DNC.
1. North Korea will open border to South similar to Berlin wall except it will be limited at first, existing government will persist, and North will claim reconciliation was due to South Korean efforts instead of US/Trump to save face. Reconciliation will include considerable commercial investment for infrastructure, again from the South but with an under-table US contribution.
2. US economy will continue growth at 3% per quarter or better.
3. Iran will continue unrest. By end of year existing government may be overthrown, or will at least be considerably weakened. This will be violent and harmful to the Iranian people before the gains are made.
4. Saudi Arabia will open borders to western (non-Islamic) tourism (but not in Mecca or Medina, of course). Alcohol restrictions may be relaxed.
5. Palestine will be forced to sue for peace and will come to an agreement that will eventually be broken, as always (the broken agreement may not happen until 2019). The agreement will also, as always, involve a lot of ‘humanitarian’ money to line leader’s pockets but this time from the international community and not US.
6. Some state’s debts (California, Illinois, New York..)will cause them to come close to default. The US will bail them out.
7. Republicans will retain majority of House and Senate.
8. US will export more and more oil, natural gas, and coal. These exports will cause the growing deficit to start shrinking.
9. Political anger will continue and there will be some violent/terrorist political acts.
1) Little Rocket Man will stop trying to compare Button sizes and will settle down to talks but with a lot of face-saving noise.
2) Mueller’s search for a crime to prosecute will succeed if only because no witch hunt has failed to find a witch.
3) Trump will not be impeached.
4) The democrats will finally come to their senses and try to win back Trump voters instead of continuing to resist an obviously successful Trump presidency.