How’d We Do On Our 2016 Predictions?

This was an interesting year because we had a general dichotmous proposition of interest to many; or rather, two. Who would win the (Republican) primary and who would win the Presidency? Click here for the predictions.

Here is a list of readers (out of 66 comments, including mine) who correctly identified Trump as winning both Primary and Presidency (in time order):

Yours Truly, Michael Dowd, Kevin, Dan Diego, Bob Koss, John Watkins, Peter A, Bob, Kevin H, Gonzalo Varvique, Yawrate, and Jerry M.

Regular readers will recognize, I think, similarities between these perfect prognosticators.

There was a lot of doom and gloom among many of the other guesses, with some saying Hillary would win, but not loving the idea. Only a few, such as JMJ, Sylvain, and Luis Dias thought Hillary would romp across the finish line and were pleased about the idea.

Onto the interesting (and serious) individual predictions!

• Michael Dowd nailed the election, but incorrectly said Pope Francis would have been shown the door.
• Wade Michaels missed the election (Rubio and Hillary), and was also wrong (we thank God) that NY or LA would be Allahu Akbared. He also said China will make a military move in the South China Sea. Didn’t happen yet, unless you count the provocative sailing about of their new carrier. Tim Cook did not leave Apple, as he predicted; and, indeed, Cook was one of the few who had to answer Trump’s summon after the election. Tongue-in-cheek he suggested I or Gav would change sides. Didn’t happen.
• Luis Dias blew the election, but got it right when he claimed 2016 would be declared Warmest Year Evah. But he scores few points with that, because even when the temperature drops, after adjustment it’s always the warmest year. He also had “Major terrorist attack in Germany, some will blame Merkel for her immigration policies, as intended by the terrorists themselves.” Same hit, but same low score. Guessing “migrant” killings in Germany is like forecasting a dry day in Tucson.
• The beautifully named Wilbur Hassenfus said “SJW insanity will spin much further out of control with no meaningful resistance in sight”, which is only partially true. SJWs lost more spit in 2016 than in any other year, but they were effectively punched back by the Alt Right. The look of shock on the faces of SJWs when they realized their screams of “Racist!” were no longer so efficacious was a joy to behold.
• James said “Russia will expand their presence in the middle east”, which they did, and most effectively. But it’s hard to say anybody didn’t see this coming. He also thought the The Oscars would go to “the most anti-reality” movie. Since Hollywood long abandoned Reality, this was a given. Finally he said “A third political party will be formed”, which didn’t happen. Unless you count the Vaudeville act which was Gary Johnson. My favorite Johnsonism was when he stuck his tongue out on national television and talked like a duck.
• Jim Fedako missed on the election, but he was right when he said Paul “I Surrender! Surrender!” Ryan would—wait for it—surrender. Too easy. Maybe his next wasn’t. He foresaw violence in Turkey, but also thought it would hit Belarus, which it didn’t. He thought the violence would be purposely stirred up by our government. Jury is out on that one. He predicted Saudi Arabia or Jordan would “implode”, which didn’t happen. But keep an eye on both, because maybe Jim’s timing was off. He also said, “On college campuses, the Sanders-inspired Pandora’s box, so to speak, will be opened ever-wider, with Trotsky the new Che and t-shirts of Marx and Engels the rage.” A hit, but an easy one. But he gets a bonus point for the Che t-shirt, because this was the year that saw Castro barking in Hell.
• Dan Diego hit on both counts on the election, but was sadly wrong when he said “Global warming is finally revealed as the scam it is.” We wish, Diego, we wish.
• Nate was half right on the election (Trump nomination), and he correctly foresaw Zsa Zsa Gabor handing in her dinner pail. He thought Kirk Douglas was going to, too, which wasn’t a bad guess, since he just turned 100. He also—boldly—announced a Cubs World Series victory. Really racked up the points with that one.
• Russ said “black li(v)es matter will significantly disrupt at least one day of the dem convention”. If you count the interruptions of Sander’s speeches, this is a hit. We don’t have verifiable evidence of his next prediction—“Obama will admit he has evolved on his belief in a God, as in: there isn’t one”—but it’s a good contender for a hit. He also said “Polygamists will win significant legal victories in the U.S.”, which, in a way, if you squint, they did. We’re still waiting for opposition to polygamy to be labeled Islamaphobic.
• Bob Koss got two election hits, but thought Hillary would be pardoned in 2016. Maybe a tad early, Bob.
• John Watkins was on top of the election. He next guessed that there’d be an “‘agreement’ between the Vatican and the German Lutherans establishing quasi-Catholic status”, which is close. Agreement there was, but it was (in the non-surprise of the year) ambiguously worded. Wait until October 2017 and the real 500th anniversary of the Protest. Watkins said war between India, Pakistan/Bangladesh and China. Didn’t happen. Yet. Still looking globally, he thought “The emergence of the Armenian Liberation Front, covertly funded and armed by Russia, to pay Turkey back”, which isn’t a hit, though only the Lord knows how much skulduggery carries on behind the scenes. Back to the Church, he guessed “A breakdown of relations…between the Vatican and the Orthodox”. This is a glancing hit. On the surface, there was bonhomie, but listening to the Patriarch of Moscow’s statements gave evidence he wasn’t happy with the Vatican. Next: “Serious Russian boots on the ground in Syria”. A hit, but more wings in the air than boots on the ground. Still, the sentiment was right.
• Sander van der Wal misfired on the election, but correctly said no war with Russia. He knew, like we all did, that there’d be another European ISIS attack. China and Japan did not come to blows, the stock market did not crash, and there wasn’t a repetition of 1861. But his “Federal laws requiring everybody gets to decide their own ‘gender'” was only a partial success. There were only negative laws (who is allowed to use what toilets), but all of them were Realityphobic.
• Gary in Erko thought ISIS would venture to the Holy Land, which didn’t happen. Yet? There was indeed “Increased tension in the south China seas” but with no resolution. He said a Church in Western Europe would be bombed (by whom, he didn’t say) on Easter. And his last was “First electric car with replaceable electrolyte on the market”, which I think was a miss.
• Bob Kurland must have had a bad day when he made his predictions. He had nukes falling everywhere. Thank the Good Lord he was wrong.
• DMA had a swing and a miss on the election, and also on his bet a new energy source would be discovered which would shut up the green SJWs. Too bad on that one.
• Peter A got the Trump part of the election right, but got it wrong thinking Sanders would overtake the Clinton machine (which is now defunct). The Iraqi army did not drive ISIS out of Iraq; at least, not yet. Greece didn’t leave the EU. Nobody had England leaving. But Peter’s crystal ball was working when he said Tony Abbot would rise Down Under. He was way off when he said no terrorist” “outrages” in 2016. A cheerful forecast, but too much wishcasting. And Pope Francis, inconsistent as he is, did not allow priests to marry.
• Shecky R got Trump wrong all the way. No harassment lawsuits, although there were some dubious claims of “abuse.” He also guessed “3 major mass shootings (8 or more deaths) in the U.S. between June 30th and Sept. 30th.” Another miss we’re grateful for.
• Bob was closer. He got the election right and guessed there’d be more terrorist attacks on US soil. He was wrong thinking the Big O would sign an executive order limiting gun purchases, and also wrong that Guantanamo would finally close.
• Uncle Mike wins the award for the most fanciful forecasts. My favorite was “Brain-damaged ex-football players plan big demonstration; but then they forget to go. Supportive college students bash in their own heads in solidarity.”
• Sylvain Allard was wrong everywhere, including “There will be more mass shooting done by white Christian man than by black and muslim [sic] combined.” Paris alone busted that one.
• Gonzalo Varvique wins second place in the Fanciful Forecasts. The best: “The new Pope, Pius XIII, (Robert Cardinal Sarah) proclaims the crusade (Deus vult!)”
• Yawrate hit with both barrels on the election, correctly saw ISIS would be knocked about, but was not verifiably right in guessing Iran would violate its nuclear treaty.
• Beowulf blew the election, but did see no war with Russia. He also scopped up a lot of other easy ones, like knowing beauty would not return to art.
• Senghendrake was correct—though it was an easy guess—that “The next thing the teachers will push is removal of gender distinctions entirely. Non-hegemonic masculinity (read wussification) is the new big thing in such circles.” You cannot go far wrong predicting outrages from SJWs.
• Chinahand did not get the American elections, but he nailed the Taiwanese Presidency. I think he was wrong saying gold would peak at $1,100 per ounce.
• Jerry M got the election, was mostly correct about SJWs screwing with the Hugo awards (again), but was wrong about the market falling 30% and China having zero growth. The US did not go into recession, and Google did not buy Twitter—though they considered it. And abandoned the idea after Twitter did its best alienate, push, and bannish its best customers. Shrewd.
• BB failed the election, but was right about the silliness of temperature records (what a dismal subject!). His best “prediction” was “No politician or media commentator will feel the need to reassure us that ‘Buddhism is a religion of peace.'” But he incorrectly had the Koreas coming to blows. But he gets a partial hit with “There will be a formal split in the world-wide Anglican communion”. There wasn’t yet a full schism, but there was plenty of acrimony, which is only growing.
• Doug M said “Movies based on Comic books will sell lots of tickets”, which I believe was true. But since most movies these days are cartoons (live action or animated), that was a sure bet.
• Terry Colon had the best probability predictions, with his top effort being “There is a 75% probability ‘near infinite’ will finally be defined as Infinity minus two.”

Many serious efforts this year, an improvment over previous years. But there was only one serious contender for the trophy. And that was…Nate, for guessing Trump all the way and most especially for his Cubs prognostication. Congratulations, Nate! I’m sending you (if I haven’t already) a PDF copy of Chapter 10 of my new book Uncertainty!

Be sure to come back Monday the 2nd (not the first, which is a Sunday) to enter your predictions for 2017!