Be sure to visit again tomorrow, for another article in this series.
Time is up. Time to fight passion with calm reason.
That always works, doesn’t it? Those thousands of “activists” and riled up protesters who have infected Denmark would sit down and listen patiently to a lecture on what counts as evidence for disastrous global warming, wouldn’t they?
Of course they would. Who doesn’t prefer logic to polemic?
Sigh—yes, I know. Hardly anybody chooses reason to passion. Much more fun to scream at the top of your lungs, or mesmerize yourself with a hey-hey-ho-ho chant and leave the thinking at home.
All this is a long-winded way of announcing that I must bore you. I’ll have to test your patience and explain why I think these protesters have deluded themselves. It’s much more fun to discuss the politics, but we have to step back and understand how these “activists” came to their state of mind.
Most of them believe the sky has already fallen. But why? What caused them to come to this apocalyptic view?
Because they are confused about what is valid evidence for global warming. They have mistakenly conflated dire predictions of calamity as evidence that the mechanism that drives those predictions is true.
The number of forecasts of ill that await us when global warming finally strikes is countless. New ones appear daily. Each of them is soberly put and clothed in academic jargon, and are meant, by shear repetition and variety, to scare the bejesus out of people.
The great unwashed lap up these prognostications of doom—because they want to believe them; but never mind why for a moment—and use them to convince themselves that the doom is true. They say, “Global warming must be true because there are so many things that can go wrong when we finally get hot.”
This is a huge, monstrous mistake. It is fundamental. This path of thought is the complete opposite of reason.
You cannot—not ever, not no how—use predictions of what might happen if something were true as evidence that that thing is true. If you do, we can say you have committed a reversal fallacy. You have things exactly backwards. You are fooling yourself.
Yet this is exactly what nearly everybody has done. This error is what has caused Yvo de Boer, the top UN “climate official”, to say, “Time is up.”
He, and his civilian and bureaucratic companions, must have been committing the reversal fallacy. There is no other explanation why they believe what they do.
Except, of course, for the cynical one that suggests no governmental leader believes in disastrous global warming, but they say they do, merely so they can seize more control and enlarge their purview. But I’ll be generous and not claim this.
What other evidence for disastrous warming is there? Certainly not in the predictions of AGW models: they have all said we could grow warmer, yet the planet has cooled over the last decade. But, even given this direct devastating negative evidence, people still believe that global warming is real. Why?
Could it be that people have noticed that in times historical it was sometimes cooler? Perhaps. But that is not direct evidence that disastrous global warming is true. It is just evidence that the climate on Earth never sits still.
No, it can only be that the will to believe that causes belief. A certain segment of humanity must want it to be true that humans cause climate misery. This is why these people focus on the forecasts of doom and use them as confirmation that their beliefs are valid.
They reason that it was not themselves who made the forecast that, say, more prostitutes will be found in the Philippines because of global warming; therefore this prediction is independent evidence that others besides themselves are rightly worried. And since others are worried, they should be.
In other words, they are putting science to a vote. They are saying, since so many others believe as I do, it must be that my beliefs are true.
All those who believe in disastrous global warming raise your hand? One, two, three…We have a majority—a consensus–therefore, disastrous global warming is true.
It is like the idiotic rumor that floated a few months ago that Congressional Republicans voted that, henceforth, π = 3. Progressives everywhere were incensed and bemused. How can they change a fact by pure force of will!
The same is happening now in Copenhagen. π will equal exactly what the power-hungry politicians want it to. All in the name of (a new kind of) “science.”