# Search results for ‘model’

## Crisis: Vatican Burns with Global Warming Enthusiasm (And Temperature Fiddling)

Today’s post is at Crisis. The title the editor John Vella wrote is AUs—parsecs, even—above mine. His: “Vatican Burns with Global Warming Enthusiasm“. Mine? “The Church Burns To Jump Into Global Warming”. […]

## Don’t Use Statistics Unless You Have To

We’re finally getting it, as evinced by the responses to the article “Netherlands Temperature Controversy: Or, Yet Again, How Not To Do Time Series.” Let’s return to the Screaming Willies. Quoting myself […]

## Answering A Critic On Sampling Variability

Alfred ‘Dominant Strategy’ (ADS) is confused that “William Briggs is confused on sampling variability”. I wrote an article highlighting misconceptions and mistakes people make when thinking about sampling variability, and ADS kindly […]

## Explanation Vs Prediction

Introduction There isn’t as much space between explanation and prediction as you’d think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here’s how it all works. I’ll illustrate […]

## More Reasons Not To Use The Precautionary Principle: Update

All probability is conditional and we are always interested in some proposition, call it X. We want to know “the probability of X”. Well, there is none: not ever. There is no […]

## Resolved: Statisticians To Cease Using “Independence”, Change To “Irrelevance”

What’s the difference between “independence” and “irrelevance” and why does that difference matter? This typical passage is from The First Course in Probability by Sheldon Ross (p. 87) is lovely because many […]

## An Introduction To Uncertainty: Probability, Statistics, and Modeling of All Kinds

This is a teaser, the first part of a 3,200-word narrative outline for the book that I’ve started to shop around. The current title is in the headline. Regular readers know it […]

## The Theology of Water—Is Design Intelligent? Guest Post by Bob Kurland

Physicist Bob Kurland gives us a twist on the anthropic principle. “The water that I shall give him will become in him a fountain of living water, welling up into eternal life. […]