William M. Briggs

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn't. Bayes is…

Culture

What Are Your Best Theories For Carlson, Bongino, Lemon Firings?

My guess is that the oligarchs pushed out Don Lemon at CNN, and Tucker Carlson and Dan Bongino at Fox, in an effort to cool the flames the oligarchs lit.…

Culture

Virtue Signaling Proves Why Science Is Broken

Few years back some folks invited me to give a talk at Fermi Lab. Subject was how mistaken views of probability were holding particle physics back. (Which I still think…

Culture

Resetting Global Agriculture: The Destructive Road to Dystopia — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp

Introduction A title that seems to carry conspiratorial overtones (some might conclude). Well, as my esteemed readers know by now, the so-called “Dutch nitrogen crisis” got me thinking; philosophically, scientifically,…

Statistics

How An AI-Machine Learning-Physics-Sociological-Whatever Model Can Be Good For One Man & Bad For Another

A model---which I do not distinguish between a theory---can be useful to one man and useless to the next. "But Briggs, people don't treat theories the same as models." Right:…

Culture

The Woke’s Nice Book Burnings & The Absence Of Violence

I was reading about the woke's latest modern form of book burning; i.e. expurgating but not eliminating texts. And it struck me. You know what's strange? What's really puzzling? The…

Statistics

Why Science Is Broken: Hillsdale Speech Video & Transcript Now Online

Video Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLFDjRS_928 And here is Greg's talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6VMcIp21mA Transcript I followed this closely during the speech, but did not adhere to it perfectly. I don't have a…

Philosophy

Do We Need Philosophy, Or Can Science Replace It?

You see the news? Woman pretending to be a man walked into a school and murdered a bunch of kids. "I know what you're going to say. You're going to…

shawn marshall on Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The WarApril 6, 2026
I do pray that the Iranians will be freed from the Mullahs who I do believe want to fashion a…
Johnno on Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb PeopleApril 2, 2026
Has this Pierre perhaps considered that it is the light of Belgian criminal law and more specifically the anti-racism law…
Johnno on There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft MenApril 2, 2026
God already foresaw all this. He warned us so in 1916 and provided a solution since 1929, in the run…
JH on There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft MenApril 1, 2026
Promoting greater equality at home can be a solution, in addition to offering incentives to involve grandparents, as Frick suggests…
Uncle Mike on There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft MenApril 1, 2026
I feel the same way. Tilting at windmills while the sun sets. Impossible dream, unbeatable foe, marching into hell for…

William M. Briggs

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War

Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness

There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men

Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?

All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model

It’s The End Of The World Again

Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People

Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?

The Great Effeminization of the Academy

The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly

Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics

Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)

On Not Reading

The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI

A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?

Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series

The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In Kind

Researcher Imagines Weather With No Human Influence: Concludes Climate Change Hurts Incomes

Faith Deposited: Why Godless Science Fails

Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity

Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of Bluesky

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War

Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

What Are Your Best Theories For Carlson, Bongino, Lemon Firings?

Virtue Signaling Proves Why Science Is Broken

Resetting Global Agriculture: The Destructive Road to Dystopia — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp

How An AI-Machine Learning-Physics-Sociological-Whatever Model Can Be Good For One Man & Bad For Another

The Woke’s Nice Book Burnings & The Absence Of Violence

Why Science Is Broken: Hillsdale Speech Video & Transcript Now Online

Do We Need Philosophy, Or Can Science Replace It?

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification