Posted inStatistics
Everybody Now Dies Of Coronavirus
You will have already seen the headline: N.Y.C. Death Toll Soars Past 10,000 in Revised Virus Count. The city has added more than 3,700 additional people who were presumed to…
Posted inStatistics
Should We Have Trusted Expert Epidemiological Models?
Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team colleagues scared the world silly in mid-March. They announced they ran a sophisticated epidemiological model which said Doom was on the…
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Coronavirus Update IX: End Game—Will Politicians Double Down On Fear Or End It?
All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…
Posted inStatistics
Mini-Coronavirus Update: The Blamestorm Is On Its Way: Fauci Walkback
Apologies to regular readers, but I got real busy the past few days. So just a mini-update on our model, which will be useful for making a couple of small…
Posted inStatistics
More On Coronavirus Model Accuracy
This post is mainly for me to have a place to collect model accuracy stories. If you see ones I missed, please add them to the comments. https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1247666625958023168 Yesterday I…
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Coronavirus Update VIII: Blown Forecasts & Peak Performance
All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…
Posted inStatistics
Coronavirus Update VII — We’ve Got Models (Update)
All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, and…
Posted inStatistics
Stay Inside Or Die!
Main coronavirus update on Tuesday, as usual. To keep that a reasonable size, I'm moving material on the overreaction here, in our Week In Doom fashion. Item Former UK Prime…