Read Part IV. We’re almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes’s Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a positive test […]
Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism): Part II
Read Part I. What is the probability that “The Detroit Tigers win today’s game” (which has not yet been played)? The truth of the proposition (in quotes) is not known and is […]
Bayesian Statistics Ruled Illegal?
Andrew Montford, who runs Bishop Hill blog, had a post titled “IPCC statistics ruled illegal” in which he said, “Bayesian statistics, the approach favoured by the IPCC in its assessments of the […]
Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism): Part III
Following Part II, here are some examples to show the differences between objectivist, subjectivist, and frequentist probabilities derived from fixed premises and set conclusions. Example 1 Not all probability is objectively strictly […]
Abortion Safety: Doctors V. Nurses & Physician Assistants & Midwives—Part II
Update 4 Too late. 10 October 2013. Update 4 Moved this to top because the bill allowing non-doctors to perform abortions is on Gov. Brown’s desk. He’ll likely sign, but those who […]
How Presidential Polls Work: D+7 or R-3 And All That
Unleash the polls! No, I don’t mean the men who bravely served under Grand Duke of Lithuania Władysław II Jagiełło (free bad joke of the day!), but those election omens which nowadays […]
Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?
Update See the comments, but thanks to readers’ arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I’ve reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in most cases—except […]
Best Statistics Question Ever
Several readers have sent this one in1. One Raymond Johnson (or was it Ryan Grover?) said he found the following picture on this blackboard (I pulled my copy from Flowing Data): Try […]
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