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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly
March 17, 2026
Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics
March 16, 2026
Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)
March 12, 2026
On Not Reading
March 11, 2026
The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI
March 10, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

Posted by By Briggs April 16, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Posted by By Briggs April 15, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Is Experimental Economics Irrational?

Everybody knows there's no such thing as money. So how come everybody acts like it's real? In particular, why do economists and other similar creatures find the lack of "rationality"…
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Posted inStatistics

My Answers to Willis Eschenbach’s 14 + 2 Questions

Repost Mr Eschenbach had not had the chance to respond to this article before the two weeks wherein comments are automatically closed have elapsed. This re-post will allow him, and…
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Posted inCulture

Pajamas Media: The VAT Man Cometh: It Will Happen. How Bad Is It?

Today's post is at Pajamas Media: "The VAT Man Cometh: It Will Happen. How Bad Is It?" I have a ghost of an old song---big band days---hiding in the back…
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Posted inStatistics

What Can Volcanic Dust Models Tell Us About Cap & Trade?

Say Eyjafjallajokull three times fast. I wish I could say it once. I've heard it in so many different forms since it blew its stack that I can't be sure…
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Posted inCulture

Harvard Classes: Marilyn Monroe and Lucille Ball

Yesterday, we pointed out that Cornell has some odd courses on its books, subjects which are not consonant with typical expectations of a classical education. So, in the interest of…
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Posted inCulture

Cornell University to Offer Degree in News Anchor Hairdo Studies

Ezra Cornell, a generous man concerned deeply about his country and its culture, when he created his eponymous university in 1868 said, "I would found an institution where any person…
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Posted inStatistics

The Pournelle vs. Nolan Chart: Political Throwdown

Before Jerry Pournelle began writing science fiction; before, that is, he teamed with Larry Niven to write the classic Lucifer's Hammer1, he was a political scientist. Pournelle was dissatisfied with…
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Posted inStatistics

Russia Subtracted Most People; India Added Most.

It's Friday and time for something light. In 2006, Russia lost 732,000 people. Don't bother searching for them, because most of them were never born. Its neighbor Ukraine also misplaced…
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  1. MikeW on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 16, 2026

    There are many ways to reconcile alleged contradictions in the Bible, including the staff issue (which is not a particularly…

  2. C-Marie on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 15, 2026

    "Memories flag, you see,....." , BUT the Holy Spirit does not flag at all , and He It was Who…

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 15, 2026

    Should these (percieved) inconsistencies negate the whole body of teaching? I once knew a couple who were profoundly opposed to…

  4. bmiller on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 15, 2026

    What seems odd to me is that if he was once so fiercely committed to believing but concluded he was…

  5. Cary D Cotterman on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 15, 2026

    I'm still hung up on the staff issue. It doesn't make much sense for someone to tell you not to…

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