William M. Briggs

A Bust—I mean must—Read; Or, An Evolution in Bra Sizes

"Excuse me, miss. Would you care to participate in science?" Sometimes being a statistician is enviable. In a flash of scientific brilliance, Australian statisticians have just completed a massive study…

Fun Statistics

M. Night Shyamalan, Mel Gibson, and John Wayne

Part II of the Two-Envelope problem was not too friendly, so here's something that is. Via HotAir, I came across the site Marginal Revolution, in which was featured a graph…

Philosophy Statistics

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part II

Read Part I first. We are in the peek first game here. The distribution of N When X is odd, and all X are discrete, we know we should always…

Philosophy Statistics

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part I

Another probability "paradox", the two-envelope problem1, goes like this: Before you are two envelopes, A and B. One of them contains $X and the other $2X (which is equivalent to…

Culture Fun

Four Chords Is All You Need: The Limited Nature of Pop Music

Coming tomorrow: the infamous two-envelope problem, solved! More mathematical constructivism. But today, as it's Sunday, something light and airy...and non taxing. A "comedy rock" group which bills itself as the…

Statistics

St Petersburg Paradox; Games and Statistical Decisions; RIP David Blackwell

David Blackwell, who died two weeks ago, was one of the first mainstream statisticians to "go Bayesian." And for that and his unique skill in clearly explaining difficult ideas, we…

Statistics

How to Fool Yourself—And Others—With Statistics

See the news box to the left. I wrote this long ago and never used it. I do not love it. But since I am so busy, I haven't the…

Statistics

US Military Fatality Statistics: Have Suicides Increased?

All statistics were gathered from this DOD site. 2010 numbers were current as of 5 June this year; they were not part of the plots below. In 1983, the year…

Jess on Marbles!June 23, 2026
Somewhere, I have my brother's bag of marbles. I sometimes think I should go through them to see if there…
Cary D Cotterman on Marbles!June 23, 2026
In the summer of 1960, in Fresno, California, I lost my promotional "KYNO Top-Dog Radio" boulder in a game of…
Brian (bulaoren) on Marbles!June 23, 2026
Briggs! Have you lost your marbles? (somebody had to say it) When I was a little kid, I was nuts…
NLR on Marbles!June 23, 2026
Interesting
Franco on How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain PowerJune 22, 2026
Probably my all time favorite has to be some variation of "War afflicts women and children most"

William M. Briggs

Marbles!

Class 92: Simple Optimal Decisions: PSA & Cancer Example

Math Is Epistemic Violence, Says Lady Academic

Truly Random Numbers Found?

Class 91: Try Not To Use the ROC Curve & AUC

Climate Change Increases Risk of Even Slower World Cup Games!

The Ultimate IQ Test: Guessing the Author’s Mind and Escaping the Infinity of Answers

Reader Poll: Shorter or Longer, Frequent or Rarer Posts?

No Model Will Save Us: Pope Leo, the Miserostat, and AI’s Woke Coders

How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?

Class 90: Simple (Optimal) Decisions

Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living Longer

Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You Wednesday

Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”

Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize Ourselves

Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples

The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!

The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?

Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty

How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Marbles!

Class 92: Simple Optimal Decisions: PSA & Cancer Example

A Bust—I mean must—Read; Or, An Evolution in Bra Sizes

M. Night Shyamalan, Mel Gibson, and John Wayne

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part II

The Two-Envelope Problem Solution: Part I

Four Chords Is All You Need: The Limited Nature of Pop Music

St Petersburg Paradox; Games and Statistical Decisions; RIP David Blackwell

How to Fool Yourself—And Others—With Statistics

US Military Fatality Statistics: Have Suicides Increased?

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification