William M. Briggs

St Petersburg Paradox; Games and Statistical Decisions; RIP David Blackwell

David Blackwell, who died two weeks ago, was one of the first mainstream statisticians to "go Bayesian." And for that and his unique skill in clearly explaining difficult ideas, we…

Statistics

How to Fool Yourself—And Others—With Statistics

See the news box to the left. I wrote this long ago and never used it. I do not love it. But since I am so busy, I haven't the…

Statistics

US Military Fatality Statistics: Have Suicides Increased?

All statistics were gathered from this DOD site. 2010 numbers were current as of 5 June this year; they were not part of the plots below. In 1983, the year…

Culture Philosophy

‘The Most Dangerous Philosopher in the West’

Extremely busy day, today. I have time for only the merest sketch of a post. The title is not mine, but a label given to Slavoj Zizek, the rock-star communist…

Culture

Paper or Plastic? Environmentalism as Public Religion

Therefore when thou doest thine alms, do not sound a trumpet before thee, as the hypocrites do in the synagogues and in the streets, that they may have glory of…

Fun Statistics

World Cup Predictions Verified

All that was missing was the water for the players to plunge into. Still, referee Howard Webb must be a fan of the aquatic and artistic sport of diving, and…

Culture

Global Warming Set To Song: Withering in the Heat

Little Aitan Grossman, just age 13, and cute as hell, has taken Honorable Mention in the 2010 Action For Nature International Young Eco-Hero Awards! A hero---an eco hero---and only 13!…

Fun Statistics

The Predictive Skills of Octopii: Paul’s World Cup Prognostications

In Detroit, for that glorious game of soccer-on-ice-with-sticks, we---I still say "we"; you can never separate yourself from your birthplace---know what to do with octopuses, octopii as were: We toss…

Briggs on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 3, 2026
Gareth, And thanks for the comment.
gareth on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 3, 2026
You said "and thanks for listening". To which my reply is "and thanks for doing" (many fold) I'm only half…
tfc on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 1, 2026
Wow. Americans say the Soviet Union was a huge success.
John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026
I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…
Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
"their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

William M. Briggs

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Contest Winner Announced!

Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Proof!

Justice Ketanji Roars

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War

Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness

There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men

Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?

All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model

It’s The End Of The World Again

Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People

Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?