In so far as I have a coherent philosophy of statistics, I hope it is “robust” enough to cope in principle with the whole of statistics, and sufficiently undogmatic not to imply […]
I’m Happy To Help, Judith Curry: Overconfidence In IPCC’s Detection And Attribution
Thanks to reader Roger Cohen for brining this to my attention. Atmospheric scientist Judith Curry recently ran a series of blog posts entitled, “Overconfidence in IPCC’s detection and attribution.” In Part III […]
What Is A “Statistically Significant Trend”?
Longtime reader Nate Winchester found a discussion—among the many, many—of global warming data revolving around statistics, from which we take the following snippet: You just do the statistics on the data. If […]
Classical Statistics Is Like A Criminal Trial
What is A crime has been committed. Evidence—probative background information—points to a list of suspects, a list which, as always, might be incomplete. A most likely candidate is made to stand trial. […]
Ivy League Climate Skeptics
I received this email from Rob Fishman at the Huffington Post. My answer follows. I’m the social media editor here at HuffPost (and a Cornell alum). I came across your blog online. […]
Model Selection and the Difficulty of Falsifying Probability Models: Part II
I hope all understand that we are not just discussing statistics and probability models: what is true here is true for all theories/models (mathematics, physics, chemistry, climate, etc.). Read Part I. Suppose […]
“I Can See The Future!”
The future begins tomorrow. This being so, it doesn’t seem especially difficult to say what will happen in that uncertain land. Weathermen, and their noble sisters the weatherwomen, daily dispatch dependable forecasts […]
Why probability isn’t relative frequency: redux
(Pretend, if you have, that you haven’t read my first weak attempt. I’m still working on this, but this gives you the rough idea, and I didn’t want to leave a loose […]
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