# Search results for ‘probability’

## Why The Bootstrap Seems To Work—And Why It Produces Over-Certainty

Let’s drag the statistician’s hoary threadbare ball-filled bag out of the cupboard to make a point. In it are 3 white balls and 2 black. Using the statistical syllogism, we deduce the […]

## Control Groups With No Cancers In Hormesis Data Sets

A well known paper by Duport et al. on radiation hormesis makes a statement about control groups which is not quite right. The paper is “Database of Radiogenic Cancer in Experimental Animals […]

## Cognitive Bayes & Rationality: Why Theoretical Explanations Charging People With Conspiracy Theories Fails

Fun quiz time! This is some data: x = c(0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1). Something caused that data to be. I know what it is, but you […]

## New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty

By moi as well. Paper link. Abstract: The reason probability models are used is to characterize uncertainty in observables. Typically, certainty in the parameters of fitted models based on their parametric posterior […]

## AI Getting Too Good At Predicting Crime, So It’s Being Purged

If all we know about an American male is that he is an American male, we can use data on observed rates American males committed crimes to predict that this new American […]

## Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails

Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug’s latest. Rather, Alexander’s (and Moldbug’s? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is. The rationality […]

## Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part II: Skin in the Game

Read Part I It is in one sense fortunate that the mathematical, or rather quantitative, roots of probability began with gambling. Routine gambles are easy to understand, and the calculations not only […]

## Blog Year In Review: Top 10 Reader & My Favorites

Tune in tomorrow to make your 2020 predictions! Results for 2019 coming Thursday. Reader Favorites Here were the Top 10 reader favorite posts of 2019, in which the numbers surprised me. One […]