Time series are the most abused statistics in the physical sciences. (It’s an endless, raucous, peer-reviewed contest for the worst in the “soft sciences.”) The Mann problem (is that a typo?) is […]
Time Series Aren’t Easy: Tornado Deaths Example
Paper Claims Surprisingly Strong Link Between Climate Change And Violence. Nonsense.
When does more crime happen, in winter or summer? Why? Too easy. How about this one: according to the FBI, what was the violent crime rate over time? No need to guess. […]
Summary Against Modern Thought: Proving God is Omniscient
See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. My predictions were right: […]
Sampling Variability Is A Screwy, Misleading Concept
@freakonometrics @DiegoKuonen @mattstat Pure data analysis cannot kill inference. Sampling variability cannot be hidden!!! — Paolo Giudici (@stateconomist) March 6, 2015 Because of travel and jet lag, exacerbated by “springing forward”, we […]
Uncertainty Is An Impossible Sell
I’ve never seen the show, but I’ve heard that the protagonist on the X Files used to have a desk sign which read, “I want to believe.” That sentiment characterizes most buyers […]
Resolved: Statisticians To Cease Using “Independence”, Change To “Irrelevance”
What’s the difference between “independence” and “irrelevance” and why does that difference matter? This typical passage is from The First Course in Probability by Sheldon Ross (p. 87) is lovely because many […]
On UFOs, Salt Intake, And Heart Disease
Michael “State of Fear” Crichton once proposed that UFOs were responsible for global warming. Why not? After all, something caused that record amount of snow in Detroit yesterday. Don’t get me wrong. […]
(Most) Everything Wrong With Time Series
It came out at my recent meeting that a compilation of everything wrong with time series was in order. A lot of this I’ve done before, and so, just as much for […]
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