William M. Briggs

The Great Bayesian Switch

Update: See this post on the definition of confidence and credible intervals. Submitted for your approval, a new paper. A polemic describing in nascent terms the paradise that awaits us…

Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part IV

There is a technical distinction between a scenario and a prediction, though the line is fine and often disputable. Many scenarios are merely intolerably loose, and therefore useless, predictions. The…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part III

This inescapable fact, that the conditioning evidence is only assumed and is therefore subjectively defined, is responsible for much acrimony about accuracy. Thus the reason we attempt to eliminate wiggle…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part II

Thanks to DAV for reminding me of a clarification. See yesterday's comments. This post is mostly bookkeeping. Tomorrow we do more examples. Sometimes, in contracts as in predictions, certain "unexpected…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part I

I say that the Detroit Tigers, the baseball team---baseball being the most sublime of all sports, and this team being the game's most stalwart representative---will beat the Boston Red Sox…

Statistics

Statistics Compared To Ladies Of Ill Repute?

While Theoretical Statistics is (mainly) a decent albeit rather boring mathematical discipline (Probability Theory is much more exciting), so called Applied Statistics is in its big part a whore. Finding…

Book review Statistics

What’s Up With The Sun? A New Book — Guest Post by Pål Brekke

Pål Brekke as a new book about the orange orb of delight that hovers over us. Our Explosive Sun is a colorful introduction that would be good for newcomers or…

Culture Philosophy

We Are All Dogmatic

Huffington Post's Chris Stedman is convinced that dogmatism, which he opposes in all its "forms", is a bad thing, and that to criticize "dogmatic principles and practices is essentially important…

Uncle Mike on Facing The Inevitable — Guest Post by Uncle MikeNovember 27, 2024
Dear Joy, Goodness always wins in the end. Or the End. All powerful is not a speculation. Keep the faith.…
Paul Murphy on Facing The Inevitable — Guest Post by Uncle MikeNovember 27, 2024
It is an odd truth that whenever libs do stupid stuff they turn out to be relying on the other…
Cary Cotterman on Facing The Inevitable — Guest Post by Uncle MikeNovember 27, 2024
It's not just Mika and Rachel. Joy Reid has also been flipping her wig. May their ratings plummet into the…
Joy on Facing The Inevitable — Guest Post by Uncle MikeNovember 27, 2024
Dear Uncle Mike, regarding the ICBM's, I'm thinking Russia will show restraint until January. If Putin is cornered, things will…
Uncle Mike on Facing The Inevitable — Guest Post by Uncle MikeNovember 27, 2024
Great pic. Thank you, Brother.

William M. Briggs

Facing The Inevitable — Guest Post by Uncle Mike

How To Read The Paper Claiming Semaglutide Reduces Cardiomyocyte Size and Cardiac Mass

Class 30: Hypothesis Testing Stinks I

Mark Twain On The Dictatorship Of Health

The Impossibilities Of Quantum Computing

What Science Can Say About Vaccines: And What It Can’t Say

Bad Predictions Mean Bad Models, Even If You’re A Distinguished Expert

Class 29: Nothing Has A Distribution

Women Let Him Win — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Trends In Wokeness & Girlbossery In Science

Prominent Academic Asks: When And How Did Statistics Lose Its Way?

Fixing College: Hit Them In The Money, Replace Their Prestige

Class 28: Randomization Redux (Randomization Does Nothing)

If We Are What We Sexually Desire, How About These Curious People?

What The Covid Panic Did To Science

We Win

See You On The Other Side

Class 27: Probability Is In Your Mind, Not Things

How Tim Walz Did Not Know Models Only Say What They’re Told To Say

Hell On Earth: 1978’s Zombie Apocalypse ‘Dawn Of The Dead’ Reviewed

The Decline Of Western Christianity: Gradually Then Suddenly

Facing The Inevitable — Guest Post by Uncle Mike

How To Read The Paper Claiming Semaglutide Reduces Cardiomyocyte Size and Cardiac Mass

The Great Bayesian Switch

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part IV

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part III

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part II

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part I

Statistics Compared To Ladies Of Ill Repute?

What’s Up With The Sun? A New Book — Guest Post by Pål Brekke

We Are All Dogmatic

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification