William M. Briggs

What Probably Isnâ€™t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…

Philosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

Statistics

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The OFloinn put up a most readable and recommended essay When is Weather Really "Climate"? and in one of the comments a reader named Gyan in part said: Many economists…

Culture Statistics

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

The Episcopals, like many other old guard protesting religions, are in trouble. Jay Akasie tells us that at this year's annual conclave, the Episcopalian leadership had their most serious discussions…

Philosophy Statistics

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

Fun Statistics

How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?

I'm traveling today so I thought I'd remind us of ShortBurst sports, Edgehogs as was. Make picks in all major sports, even the God-help-us Olympics, and track your prognosticatory prowess.…

Uncle Mike on I Don’t Want Immigrants Is All The Reason I NeedJanuary 22, 2025
Some illegals (not all) are fentanyl mule cartel mafia footsoldier murder rapist satanic blood sucking criminal meth head gangsters. That…
JH on I Don’t Want Immigrants Is All The Reason I NeedJanuary 21, 2025
People, “I don’t want immigrants” != “I don’t want illegal immigrants.” Briggs, though I think your responses are a bit…
BDavi52 on I Don’t Want Immigrants Is All The Reason I NeedJanuary 21, 2025
The 'Xenophobic Argument' is the most interesting, because it is both the easiest to make and the most inherently flawed.…
Cary Cotterman on I Don’t Want Immigrants Is All The Reason I NeedJanuary 21, 2025
The argument I usually get is "compassion". The thing is, I just don't care. Too bad, so sad. I have…
Johnno on I Don’t Want Immigrants Is All The Reason I NeedJanuary 21, 2025
BRIGGS YOU XENOFOOL! You don't want immigrants, do you???!!! Well, I don't want NEIGHBORS!!! Not in my apartment condominium, not…

William M. Briggs

I Don’t Want Immigrants Is All The Reason I Need

Class 35: The Grand Scheme: All Of Probability & Uncertainty In 30 Minutes

More On Monkeys Typing Shakespeare & Why Chance Isn’t Enough

Surgeon General Demands Label War Against Wine

Class 34: The Excesses & Errors Of Epidemiology III

England’s Rulers Insist Natives Must Assimilate To “Migrants”

Experts: Please Begin Panicking Over Bird Flu. Us: No. Experts: (Sob)

Environmental Experts To Rip Out Trees, Build Solar Electric Plant In Snow Belt To “Save The Environment”

Class 33: The Excesses & Errors Of Epidemiology II

Register Your Predictions For 2025!

Happy New Year!

How Did We Do In Our 2024 Predictions?

Hot New The Science: Kids Are Having Climate Emotions

Merry Christmas!

The Lesson Scientists Never Learn

House Cramnibus Funds New Follow-The-Science Panics

Probability Puzzle Paradox: Which Boxes To Take?

As Woke Falls, What Rises?

Class 32: The Excesses & Errors Of Epidemiology I (All Should Read)

Who’s Better at Playing Doctor, Boys Or Girls?

How The Enlightenment Led To Contraception (And Other Forms of Anti-Natal Behavior)

I Don’t Want Immigrants Is All The Reason I Need

Class 35: The Grand Scheme: All Of Probability & Uncertainty In 30 Minutes

What Probably Isnâ€™t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification