PODCAST BONUS! See last Master’s year’s predictions here. Since not much has changed, I’m doing a lot of copying and pasting. The Podcast bonus is because of the screwed up time I […]
Masters Predictions & (Some) Statistics — Podcast Bonus
Answering A Global Warming True Believer
A reader receive a plaintive email from an associate who had converted to a global warming True Believer. The reader asked if I would answer the associate. I do so below. In […]
Tide Gauge Locations And Sea Level Rise, Some Statistical Concerns
Marcel Crok asked me to comment on the peer-reviewed paper “Tide gauge location and the measurement of global sea level rise” Beenstock (yes) and others in the journal Environmental and Ecological Statistics. […]
There Is No Such Thing As A 1000-Year Flood
Phrases like “100 year rainfalls” or floods or whatever for whatever period of time are awful. They convey an improper idea of uncertainty. The phrase “X year event” is based on inverting […]
Trenberth Is Wrong About Global Warming: The PDO Is An Effect, Not A Cause
Kevin “Travesty” Trenberth had a peer-reviewed article in Science entitled, “Has there been a hiatus? Internal climate variability masks climate-warming trends.” First, the word “hiatus” is wrong. Using it assumes what it […]
This Week In Doom: Reality Now Illegal
The good news is that Yours Truly’s prognosticative skills are sharper than ever. Of course this is only a relative blip in happiness. The ultimate Good News we celebrated yesterday. The bad […]
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update
Read Part I Part II What we’re after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there are no […]
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III
Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce how well […]
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