# Search results for ‘"time series"’

## Netherlands Temperature Controversy: Or, Yet Again, How Not To Do Time Series

Today, a lovely illustration of all the errors in handling time series we have been discussing for years. I’m sure that after today nobody will make these mistakes ever again. (Actually, I […]

## Upcoming Probability & Statistics Talks! The Climate, Over-Certainty & More!

Update Classic Posts page link fixed. When & Where I have no idea. As soon as somebody hires me to give them. Since I am out of the system, I don’t know […]

Don’t Don’t smooth your data and then use that smoothed data as input to other analysis. You will fool yourself. You will make over-confident decisions. It is the wrong thing to do. […]

## Can We Predict The Unpredictable?

The most intriguing thing about the new peer-reviewed paper of the same name as today’s post in Nature: Scientific Reports by Abbas Golestani and Robin Gras is that it is longer than […]

## Don’t Use Statistics Unless You Have To

We’re finally getting it, as evinced by the responses to the article “Netherlands Temperature Controversy: Or, Yet Again, How Not To Do Time Series.” Let’s return to the Screaming Willies. Quoting myself […]

## The Four Errors in Mann et al’s “The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth”

Michael E. Mann and four others published the peer-reviewed paper “The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth” in Nature: Scientific Reports (DOI: 10.1038/srep19831). I shall call this authors of this paper “Mann” for […]

## What Is Cause Like?

Time for the two-week teaching sojourn. In order to grasp cause, we need a brief, a very brief, introduction to the Aristotelian metaphysics of change. These are ancient views, largely abandoned in […]

## Time Series And Causality: Global Warming Example

Temperature causes Here is an atmospheric monthly average temperature series: T = (61, 69, 69, 70, 72, 65, 63) (all F). What caused the temperature to take the value T1 = 61? […]