We’re finally getting it, as evinced by the responses to the article “Netherlands Temperature Controversy: Or, Yet Again, How Not To Do Time Series.” Let’s return to the Screaming Willies. Quoting myself […]
What Is Cause Like?
Time for the two-week teaching sojourn. In order to grasp cause, we need a brief, a very brief, introduction to the Aristotelian metaphysics of change. These are ancient views, largely abandoned in […]
Paper Claims Surprisingly Strong Link Between Climate Change And Violence. Nonsense.
When does more crime happen, in winter or summer? Why? Too easy. How about this one: according to the FBI, what was the violent crime rate over time? No need to guess. […]
The Four Errors in Mann et al’s “The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth”
Michael E. Mann and four others published the peer-reviewed paper “The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth” in Nature: Scientific Reports (DOI: 10.1038/srep19831). I shall call this authors of this paper “Mann” for […]
Summary Against Modern Thought: Proving God is Omniscient
See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. My predictions were right: […]
Uncertainty Is An Impossible Sell
I’ve never seen the show, but I’ve heard that the protagonist on the X Files used to have a desk sign which read, “I want to believe.” That sentiment characterizes most buyers […]
Sampling Variability Is A Screwy, Misleading Concept
@freakonometrics @DiegoKuonen @mattstat Pure data analysis cannot kill inference. Sampling variability cannot be hidden!!! — Paolo Giudici (@stateconomist) March 6, 2015 Because of travel and jet lag, exacerbated by “springing forward”, we […]
Resolved: Statisticians To Cease Using “Independence”, Change To “Irrelevance”
What’s the difference between “independence” and “irrelevance” and why does that difference matter? This typical passage is from The First Course in Probability by Sheldon Ross (p. 87) is lovely because many […]
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