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Latest Articles
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity
Posted inStatistics

Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
Read More
Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of Bluesky
Posted inStatistics

Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of Bluesky

Ressentiment and hurt feelings over lose of prestige has hit many academic scientists hard. The ebbing away of respect and deference was not something they prepared for. They were taught,…
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The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell
Posted inStatistics

The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell

My son had the opportunity to go skiing at a hotspot out west. One of the first things he was asked was if he had a ski lift pass looped…
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Class 79: Time Series Example
Posted inStatistics

Class 79: Time Series Example

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
Read More
The Importance Of Not Making Decisions
Posted inStatistics

The Importance Of Not Making Decisions

Here, I promise you, was "breaking" news from not long ago: "United States Representative Tim Burchett says aliens could be stationed in five or six underwater bases off the U.S.…
Read More
Posted inStatistics

Don’t Take The ‘Long-Covid’ Alzheimer’s Study Seriously

Headline (one of many): "Long COVID may be triggering Alzheimer’s-like changes in the brain: new study". Story: The effects of long COVID rage on. Over 20 million Americans are believed…
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AI Is Driving Many Crazy: Our Latest Panic
Posted inStatistics

AI Is Driving Many Crazy: Our Latest Panic

Here is a typical calm well-reasoned take on computer models (a.k.a. AI): I pointed out: "Stop terrorizing yourself. AI is just computer models, hooked to the wall by cords that…
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Class 78: The Attempt To Turn Correlation Lead Into Causation Gold In Time Series
Posted inStatistics

Class 78: The Attempt To Turn Correlation Lead Into Causation Gold In Time Series

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don't expect all want to read these posts. So please don't feel like you must. Yet, I…
Read More

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  1. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  2. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  3. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  4. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  5. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

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