William M. Briggs

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Philosophy Statistics

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Statistics

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…

Philosophy Statistics

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Today's headline is true. True means that which is certain, without the possibility of error; that which is not false; that which accords with reality. It means that which is…

Statistics

Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die

Must...resist...quoting... from Stephen Ziliak's gorgeous invective "Unsignificant Statistics" (where I stole today's title) in the Financial Post. Well, just a little (all emphasis mine and joyfully placed): Statistical significance is…

Johnno on Masking Morality With Science: Men Pretending To Be Women In SportsNovember 17, 2025
What is to be done? Accelerate it! Let the transgenders march through all the women's institutions to outcompete and purge…
Johnno on In Which An Atheist Becomes Sputteringly Angry Over Theist’s ArgumentNovember 17, 2025
Well Cary, the problem is that before you see God we are all very certain you are going to spend…
John Pate on Why Study Probability?November 17, 2025
Willis, I'm trying to get you to think differently, not be antagonistic... although my sister says I'm "on the spectrum"…
Uncle Mike on Masking Morality With Science: Men Pretending To Be Women In SportsNovember 17, 2025
How wonderful! As Dr. Briggs points out, clearly God, the Almighty Creator, created women different from men. However, stone cold,…
Cary D Cotterman on Masking Morality With Science: Men Pretending To Be Women In SportsNovember 17, 2025
Even with lowered testosterone, there's still height, weight, stride length, reach, muscle size, lung capacity, heart capacity, and the natural…

William M. Briggs

Masking Morality With Science: Men Pretending To Be Women In Sports

Why Study Probability?

The Dysgenics Of IVF

In Which An Atheist Becomes Sputteringly Angry Over Theist’s Argument

Academics Debate Which Term Best Describes Those Who Love (in that way) Their Pillows

Class 71: Never Trust ‘Research Shows’ Headlines: We Bring Cause To Data

Diversity Patrol Scanning Citations For Victims

Little Nate’s Plan To Save The World

Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education Causes Mass Squealing

Stay The Course: Have Some Class

Last Call For Alcohol-Cancer Papers

UFO Hits United Flight. All Survive. This Time!

Changes Are Coming: Our Return to 1970s

Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right Way

The Triumph Of The Feminine

At What Point Does Transsexualism Become A Conservative Value?

The Superpower You Didn’t Know You Had

Class 69: Why Parameters Don’t Exist

Putin, Xi Who Must Obeyed, Occult Rituals & Living Forever

Nobody Believes Anything Based On “No Evidence”

Good Vs Bad Science (Models) & How You Can Tell The Difference: Think Twice Science

Masking Morality With Science: Men Pretending To Be Women In Sports

Why Study Probability?

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification