William M. Briggs

Best Picture Oscar Winner: Model Prediction

For several years I have been predicting (with perfect accuracy) the best picture Oscar. (See this and this for past years.) The "model" pick for this year is Captain Phillips.…

Philosophy Statistics

Why You Should Care About The Philosophy Of Probability & Statistics

"Why, Dr Briggs," asks the earnest Student, "Why must we study all this gobbledegook about philosophy when it's more important to learn all the neat methods of handling data? Why…

Culture

Briggs And The Owl: A Refutation Of Atheism

Note this is not your usual author."The owl of Minerva spreads its wings and takes flight when the shades of night are falling." --Hegel Or, as explained by Wikipedia, "[P]hilosophy…

Book review Philosophy

Which God Are You Rejecting? David Bentley Hart’s The Experience of God, Part I

The Experience of God: Being, Consciousness, Bliss by David Bentley Hart. A good joke A joke which many atheists think clever goes like this: (speaking to a theist) "You reject…

Statistics

Update On The On-line Probability & Statistics Course. Comments Wanted

It's been a while, but I think I've finally figured out how to make an on-line class work. Details about this will be forthcoming, but for now I wanted to…

Culture Statistics

Prosecute Global Warming Heretics. Update 2: Kill, Nuremberg Them, Too!

Prosecute the heretics! is the new cry from the high priests of global warming. Climate "deniers", they say, are no better than mobsters, good fellas who are extorting the climate,…

Philosophy Statistics

The Mysticism Of Randomness: Philosophy of Probability & Statistics Video Series

Nothing can be caused by "chance". Chance, like randomness, isn't a thing, it isn't real, it isn't physical, therefore it cannot cause anything. Randomness means "unknown." Therefore "random variables" are…

Culture

From Latin & Greek To Remedial English

From Twitter's @LeMarquand came this picture: An overstatement, sure. Not every high school went in for amo, amas, amat or saw students parsing snatches of The Odyssey in the original.…

John M on Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living LongerMay 28, 2026
The research and studies about reversing Alzheimer's and other dementia is amazing. It will have a big impact on longevity…
C-Marie on Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living LongerMay 28, 2026
Once a woman becomes pregnant, she is a mother, and the man who gave his sperm is a father. When…
Gail Finke on Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living LongerMay 27, 2026
Guttmacher's numbers of pre-Roe abortions are hugely inflated. They had an interest in making those numbers higher (convincing people that…
Johnno on Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living LongerMay 27, 2026
Well, hopefully they enjoy those longer lives while they last, because there is an eternity in Hell waiting for them…
~Nona on Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living LongerMay 27, 2026
Self-serving comment? Maybe. BUT it was really interesting to read. As a child I lived next door to a centenarian.…

William M. Briggs

Class 90: Simple (Optimal) Decisions

Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living Longer

Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You Wednesday

Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”

Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize Ourselves

Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples

The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!

The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?

Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty

How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Contest Winner Announced!

Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt