Posted inStatistics
Jumping The Infinity Shark: An Answer To Senn; Part Last
Read Part V From his page 55 (as before slightly edited for HTML/LaTex): Consider the case of a binary event where the two outcomes are success, S, or failure F…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V
Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…
Posted inFun
Fingers Lakes Wine Tasting Notes
A few years ago the boss of Guinness toured American micro-breweries and congratulated them for their enterprise, but he also gave them a spot of advice, which, paraphrased, was that…
Posted inFun
Highs And Lows Of Summer Skirts: Guest Post by the Blonde Bombshell
One thing that is admirable about the well-attired man is that if he were to time travel, he would be at home in nearly any era. He may have to…
Posted inStatistics
An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2
The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV
Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III
A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II
Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…
