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William M. Briggs

Statistician to the Stars!

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Latest Articles
On Not Reading
March 11, 2026
The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI
March 10, 2026
A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?
March 9, 2026
Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series
March 5, 2026
The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In Kind
March 4, 2026
Researcher Imagines Weather With No Human Influence: Concludes Climate Change Hurts Incomes
March 3, 2026
Faith Deposited: Why Godless Science Fails
March 2, 2026
Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity
February 26, 2026
Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of Bluesky
February 24, 2026
The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell
February 23, 2026
Class 79: Time Series Example
February 19, 2026
The Importance Of Not Making Decisions
February 18, 2026
Don’t Take The ‘Long-Covid’ Alzheimer’s Study Seriously
February 17, 2026
AI Is Driving Many Crazy: Our Latest Panic
February 16, 2026
Class 78: The Attempt To Turn Correlation Lead Into Causation Gold In Time Series
February 12, 2026
Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam Performance
February 11, 2026
Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender Delusions
February 10, 2026
Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI
February 9, 2026
Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well
February 4, 2026
Impossible LSAT Statistics Question
February 3, 2026
How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)
February 2, 2026
Posted inStatistics

On Not Reading

Posted by By Briggs March 11, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI

Posted by By Briggs March 10, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Statistics Really Is: Part Last

Read Part I, Part Paradox, Part II Recapitulation: we have Pr(p|qm) where p is a proposition of interest, q the evidence we have compiled in the form of observations and…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Probability Is Logic: Philosophy of Probability & Statistics Video Series

I'm starting---and even continuing, if there is interest---a new video series on the philosophy of probability and statistics. Look at those retro production values! I boast of them following Julia…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

On Intelligence & Religiosity

Take a pencil and paper---do this---and write down the most intelligent people who have ever lived. Most brilliant in any field of endeavor, now. Who were the best of us?…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Researchers Invent Exciting New Disease: Poverty Blindness

There must soon come a day at The Onion, the satirical newspaper, when the editors will gather in bewilderment and say to each other, "Fellas, there's no use. The real…
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Posted inStatistics

Scientists Discover Men Enjoy Looking At Women’s Breasts.

Regular readers will recall there are two main kinds of bad statistics. First is when the technique has been done wrong or is misapplied. Errors of this kind comprise only…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Statistics Really Is: Part II

Read Part I, Part Paradox I claimed, and it is true, that all statistical problems could be written $latex \Pr(p|q)$, where p is a proposition of interest and q is…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Statistics Really Is: Paradox Digression

Read Part I We're taking a small digression to answer a question put by Deborah Mayo in Part I, pointing to this article on her site. Mayo should be on…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Statistics Really Is: Part I

It's so simple that you'll think I'm kidding. Worse, the way I'll show it is such a radical departure from the manner in which you're used to thinking about probability…
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  1. Johnno on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026

    I'm panicking about the people who believe enthusiastically in the capabilities of the AI that the other people are panicking…

  2. Rudolph Harrier on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026

    I've started thinking of this as the "juice loosener problem" (after the Simpsons bit where Dr. Nick hawks an orange…

  3. Cary D Cotterman on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026

    After spending years in school doing my own writing, then decades in my profession busting my ass to write somewhere…

  4. Uncle Mike on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026

    AI isn't the entity smoothing the data. The alleged decline in Arctic sea ice was a key assertion in Algore's…

  5. JH on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 10, 2026

    The definition of cause can vary, and each incident may have its causes or contributing factors. I see coincidences as…

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