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Posted inStatistics

Chu On These Climate Tipping Points

"Beware the Tipping Point, my son! That little wee thing, the difference it makes! Beware its Connector Theory, and shun Its luminous Balderdash!" With appropriate apologies to the great logician…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Are The Masters Winners Getting Younger And Better? Predictions Update

Update As of this writing, the 2012 Masters is halfway through, so it's a good time to re-examine the predictions made last April for this year's tournament. Scores have been…
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Posted inStatistics

Overstretching Climate Change Attribution

Says Camille Parmesan and others, "The biological world is responding rapidly to a changing climate, but attempts to attribute individual impacts to rising greenhouse gases are ill-advised" (from the first…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

“I Can See The Future!”

The future begins tomorrow. This being so, it doesn't seem especially difficult to say what will happen in that uncertain land. Weathermen, and their noble sisters the weatherwomen, daily dispatch…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Wishcasting The End Of The World: Update

Wishcasting is when a forecast or prediction is shaded in the direction the forecaster or predictor wants the event to happen. For example, if you forecast this weekend's weather, you…
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Posted inStatistics

Statistical Significance Does Not Mean What You Think. Climate Temperature Trends. Ithaca Teaching Journal, Day 7

There are a subset of professional statisticians---defined as folks who have had formal training in the field given to them by other professionals---who feel that the field of statistics is…
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Posted inStatistics

Regression Is Not What You Think. Climate And Other Examples. Ithaca Teaching Journal, Day 8

Be sure to first read Statistical Significance Does Not Mean What You Think. Climate Temperature Trends, as this post is an extension of it. As yesterday: If y is some…
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Posted inStatistics

Picking X’s In Regression. The Role Of Relevance. Ithaca Teaching Journal, Day 9

Be sure to first read Statistical Significance Does Not Mean What You Think. Climate Temperature Trends then Regression Is Not What You Think. Climate And Other Examples, as this post…
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  1. Phil R on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025

    ...and I saw 5 or 25 in the figure. The division answer never occurred to me. Got all the rest…

  2. Phil R on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025

    If someone asks a question that is conditional on some evidence or rule that they conveniently (or purposely) leave out,…

  3. McChuck on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025

    The answer for the pictured question is obviously '1', as the slot already has a '1' in it, which has…

  4. Briggs on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025

    Mark, That's exactly it.

  5. Mark on Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)July 1, 2025

    Wittgenstein gave some examples like this in his Remarks on the Foundation of Mathematics, a book I had no business…

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