“Beware the Tipping Point, my son! That little wee thing, the difference it makes! Beware its Connector Theory, and shun Its luminous Balderdash!” With appropriate apologies to the great logician whose words […]
Overstretching Climate Change Attribution
Says Camille Parmesan and others, “The biological world is responding rapidly to a changing climate, but attempts to attribute individual impacts to rising greenhouse gases are ill-advised” (from the first issue of […]
Regression Is Not What You Think. Climate And Other Examples. Ithaca Teaching Journal, Day 8
Be sure to first read Statistical Significance Does Not Mean What You Think. Climate Temperature Trends, as this post is an extension of it. As yesterday: If y is some temperature and […]
Picking X’s In Regression. The Role Of Relevance. Ithaca Teaching Journal, Day 9
Be sure to first read Statistical Significance Does Not Mean What You Think. Climate Temperature Trends then Regression Is Not What You Think. Climate And Other Examples, as this post is an […]
Replication In Science
Have doubts about the latest finding from researchers? Confused that last week red wine “increased the risk of heart disease” but this week red wine “decreased the risk of heart disease.” Concerned […]
Does Second To Fourth Digit Ratio Predict You-Know-What Length?
From the storied Halls of Science comes an important new study, here abstracted from the Asian Journal of Andrology1. I apologize for the length of this excerpt, but it is necessary you […]
Phil Jones and the Lack of Warming; Or, Die, Statistical Significance, Die
According to the stunning New York Times headline, which quoted climatologist Phil Jones, there has been no “statistically significant” global warming in the past 15 years. Just kidding! The Times forgot to […]
Climate Model Uncertainty: Part II
Read Part I The Analysis (cont.) Two problems arise when comparing a model’s integration (the forecast) with an analysis of new observations, which are not found when comparing the forecast to the […]
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