# Search results for ‘probability’

## Why Simple Models Are Better Than Complex In Finance, Climate, Coronadoom & More

Right after yesterday’s post on (again) why rationalism and reason fail as philosophies, and on their severe limitations, I read an article profiling Gerd Gigerenzer and his “simple rules”. It repeats a […]

## Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part XI

Review! We left off with comparing the standard, out-of-the-box linear regression with our multinomial predictive observable model. The great weaknesses of the regression were probability leakage (giving positive probability to impossible values) […]

## How Predictive Statistics Can Help Alleviate, But Not Eliminate, The Reproducibility Crisis

Predictive statistics can help alleviate the Reproducibility Crisis by, in a word, eliminating p-values. And replacing them with superior measures more useful in quantifing the uncertainty present. Below is some, what I […]

## Possibility Versus Probability & Decision

Philip Pilkington, author of the buyable The Reformation in Economics: A Deconstruction and Reconstruction of Economic Theory, asks a follow-up question to the material on the precautionary principle. If probability is not […]

## Gambler’s Fallacy Not As Crazy As Mathematician’s Fallacy

A new walks-into-a-bar joke begins (thanks to reader Kip Hansen for the tip): A mathematician, a philosopher and a gambler walk into a bar. As the barman pulls each of them a […]

## Predictive Probability Resources, Why Frequentism Fails & Uncertainty

From the mailbag, reader I.W. writes: Dear Professor, I represent social science (but of a priori bent), and I recently got really hooked on frequentialism. After all, prof. Mises employed it as […]

## The Only Thing That Has Fat Tails Are Rappers: More On The PP Fallacy

Evidence for an event cannot be the horrific consequences of that event. Suppose we’re interested in the probability of a Y = “Horrific plague”. Since nothing has a probability, we need first […]

## Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part I: Probability Does Not Exist

Ye Olde Statistician points us to an essay (a book chapter?) by our old pal Nassim Nicholas Taleb called “The Logic of Risk Taking“. Let’s examine it. You, dear reader, do not […]