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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize Ourselves
May 18, 2026
Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples
May 14, 2026
The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!
May 13, 2026
The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?
May 12, 2026
Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty
May 11, 2026
How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power
May 6, 2026
Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko
May 4, 2026
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize Ourselves

Posted by By Briggs May 18, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples

Posted by By Briggs May 14, 2026
Continue Reading
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
Posted inStatistics

All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model

There is no Class this week, due to events. Here are the first 100 numbers in a series I constructed: 0.3987654 ,0.9560464 ,0.1675681 ,0.5562341 ,0.9843035 ,0.06160958 ,0.2305416 ,0.7073786 ,0.8254209 ,0.5746259…
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It’s The End Of The World Again
Posted inStatistics

It’s The End Of The World Again

It's only a matter of time. This world had a beginning, and all created things have beginnings and ends. Thus, this world will have an end. I want to stress…
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Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
Posted inStatistics

Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People

Some waffle-stuffed Belgian judge has threatened to toss little Nate Cofnas into a Belgian hoosegow, presumably on the French side where they serve stale cheese, bad baguettes and English wine,…
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Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
Posted inStatistics

Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?

Announcement: I wrote this Class for a general audience. Anybody can read it. And should if they are interested in Science. There's only a little notation, which can be ignored…
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The Great Effeminization of the Academy
Posted inStatistics

The Great Effeminization of the Academy

An expected and obvious consequence of the Great Effeminization of the Academy is that a great deal of academic output is now about the feelings of academics. From the peer-reviewed…
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The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly
Posted inStatistics

The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly

I can't recommend the debate---surely too strong a word; let's instead say the sit-down---between Ross Douthat, a New York Times employee, and Stephen Pinker, an academic, except for one thing.…
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Posted inStatistics

Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics

Here is a recent Lancet cover, which itself is an excellent argument doctors, which is to say body mechanics, ought not to be put in charge of public health. My…
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Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)
Posted inStatistics

Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
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  1. Tony Cooke on Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize OurselvesMay 18, 2026

    The description of the possible transfer of the Hanta virus reminded me of the woman who sang "I danced with…

  2. The Errors of Mr. Coffin on the PP signature and Apostolic Blessings – Roma Locuta Est on Munus, Ministerium & Pope Emeritus Benedict — Guest Post by Fr John RickertMay 16, 2026

    […] However, for the record I will note that myself and others (e.g., Ryan Grant, and Fr. John Rickert, HERE…

  3. John Pate on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 14, 2026

    You haven't given any information the beast sizes of the women involved, this being an important factor (as demonstrated by…

  4. JRob on The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!May 14, 2026

    Wow, Wow, Wow! Someone else used the exaggeration method! Years ago I tried to figure out the Monte Hall problem…

  5. McChuck on The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!May 13, 2026

    There is a simpler, less math-intensive solution that gives the same answer. Knowing that it doesn't take two men to…

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