Around the 4th of July, here in the States, there is a tendency for official weather forecasts to show a probability of precipitation that is lower than it should be. It rains […]
Why probability isn’t relative frequency
(This is a modified excerpt from my forthcoming—he said hopefully—book, on the subject of why probability cannot be relative frequency. This is to be paired with the essay on why probability cannot […]
Why probability isn’t relative frequency: redux
(Pretend, if you have, that you haven’t read my first weak attempt. I’m still working on this, but this gives you the rough idea, and I didn’t want to leave a loose […]
New Arcsine Climate Forecast: Hot and Cold!
If you weren’t worried before, then take a look at this shocking new climate forecast! No, only kidding. This is the real forecast: Sorry. Can’t help myself. Here are four more “forecasts”. […]
An international court to prevent climate change. Now that is a good idea.
Stephen Hockman QC—which, if you read Rumpole, you know means queer customer—is a European (I can’t say Englishman, because an Englishman would not voluntarily cede his country’s sovereignty to a foreign body) […]
Theory confirmation and disconfirmation
Time for an incomplete mini-lesson on theory confirmation and disconfirmation. Suppose you have a theory, or model, about how some thing works. That thing might be global warming, stock market prices, stimulating […]
Help finding paper.
Two days ago a report appeared in various places announcing the results of a new paper tying malaria to “global warming.” I’d like to find the paper but I haven’t the time. […]
What appeal to authority means and what it doesn’t
This article is meant to be the first is a small series of demonstrations of how not and how to argue for or against climate activism. The level of argumentation on the […]
Recent Comments