# Search results for ‘random chance’

## The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David Stove

Jim Franklin hosted this classic essay of the late David Stove’s for many years. But he received a complaint from one of the intellectually Tolerant. As Franklin said on this site, “An […]

## Frequentists Are Closet Bayesians: Confidence Interval Edition

Actually, all frequentists and Bayesians are logical probabilists, but if I put that in the title, few would believe it. A man might call himself an Anti-Gravitational Theorist, a science which describes […]

## What That Spurious Correlation Website Tells Us About Statistics

Many (thanks!) readers sent links to Tyler Vigen’s Spurious Correlations, whose motto is “Discover a new correlation – an interesting spurious correlation each day!” My favorite is tying the yearly number of […]

## Quantum Mechanics & Free Will: Guest Post by Bob Kurland

This post originally appeared in longer form at Bob’s place. There’s a lot of meat here; I recommend biting it off in small chunks. “Of course I believe in free will. I […]

## Never Say “Caused By Chance”

One of the services of this blog is grammatical guidance. In that spirit, here are phrases which should be forbidden, and will be once I am in charge (all highlights mine): “If […]

## Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V

Read Part IV. We’re almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes’s Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a positive test […]

## Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism): Part II

Read Part I. What is the probability that “The Detroit Tigers win today’s game” (which has not yet been played)? The truth of the proposition (in quotes) is not known and is […]

## Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism): Part III

Following Part II, here are some examples to show the differences between objectivist, subjectivist, and frequentist probabilities derived from fixed premises and set conclusions. Example 1 Not all probability is objectively strictly […]