Nothing can be caused by "chance". Chance, like randomness, isn't a thing, it isn't real, it isn't physical, therefore it cannot cause anything. Randomness means "unknown." Therefore "random variables" are…

Go ahead and ask me. I'll even pretend to laugh. Just as I chuckle warmly with you when you quote Mark Twain (or Disraeli) abut damned lies. (Secretly, I'll be…

Actually, all frequentists and Bayesians are logical probabilists, but if I put that in the title, few would believe it. A man might call himself an Anti-Gravitational Theorist, a science…

Many (thanks!) readers sent links to Tyler Vigen's Spurious Correlations, whose motto is "Discover a new correlation - an interesting spurious correlation each day!" My favorite is tying the yearly…

Read Part I. What is the probability that "The Detroit Tigers win today's game" (which has not yet been played)? The truth of the proposition (in quotes) is not known…

One of the services of this blog is grammatical guidance. In that spirit, here are phrases which should be forbidden, and will be once I am in charge (all highlights…

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…