This post originally appeared right before the Uncertainty did. Now that we’re 1.5 years out, it’s time for a re-post. Buy it now, but it today, and buy it again tomorrow! Chapter […]

## Solution To The Kind-Hearted Magician — REVEALED!

Kip Hansen last week gave us the following scenario (which I’ve pared to bare essentials here, but check the original if you fret): START Sam shows us three cards, two Jokers and […]

## Statistics (Philosophy) Quiz: See If You Really Know What You’re Doing Using Tests

This is from Gerd Gigerenzer’s “Mindless statistics” in The Journal of Socio-Economics, 33, (2004) 587–606. Have a go before looking at the answers (I’m giving my own, not quoting Gigerenzer). Send this […]

## What Is The Probability Of COVFEFE?

From a tweet from Taleb, who informs us the following question is part of the Indian Statistical Institute examination. (5) Mr.Trump decides to post a random message on Facebook and he starts […]

## What Does It Mean To Assess Risk Wrong? Coronadoom Example

There is, as de Finetti said, no such thing as probability. So there is no such thing as risk, either, since risk relies upon probability. If there is no such thing as […]

## The Burden Of Proof On Climate Scientists—And Those Wishing For Its “Solutions”

UNCERTAINTY REQUIREMENTS If you say a calamity will befall me, and ask me to pay to protect against it, the burden is on you to (a) prove the calamity is likely in […]

## What People Think Probability Words Mean

The graph above came from Github and was the result of a poll of folks on Reddit. “The raw data came from /r/samplesize responses to the following question: What [probability/number] would you […]

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Chapter 1 Excerpt from *Uncertainty: The Soul of Probability, Modeling & Statistics*

Buy the book! Necessary & Conditional Truth Given “x,y,z are natural numbers and x>y and y>z” the proposition “x>z” is true (I am assuming logical knowledge here, which I don’t discuss until […]

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