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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Science: The Bigger The Hole In The Head, The More Politically Active
Posted inStatistics

Science: The Bigger The Hole In The Head, The More Politically Active

One lesson I've worked hard at imparting is that scientists, being generally of slightly above average intelligence, and sometimes more, excel at finding evidence which supports their beliefs. But that…
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Class 45: The False Hope Of Falsification
Posted inStatistics

Class 45: The False Hope Of Falsification

Every scientist loves to say that of theories and models that are falsifiable are "scientific". Alas, this excludes by nature and in practice all models and theories used by scientists.…
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New Paper Says Flu Vax Increases Chance Of Flu: Let’s Look
Posted inStatistics

New Paper Says Flu Vax Increases Chance Of Flu: Let’s Look

Can flu vaccine give you flu? New paper seems to say yes. Their conclusion: "the risk of influenza was significantly higher for the vaccinated compared to the unvaccinated state...yielding a…
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A Simple Argument Proving You Must Not Trust Standard Scientific Evidence
Posted inStatistics

A Simple Argument Proving You Must Not Trust Standard Scientific Evidence

In my forced isolation, which was in many ways a gift, I took to thinking of my failures to convince people not to use or trust standard statistical evidence. Here…
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Power Restored, Posts To Resume
Posted inStatistics

Power Restored, Posts To Resume

When the power came on, I was playing my cheap electric piano, and I had hit the wrong key. Which I hit more wrong than right ones, so that wasn't…
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Posted inStatistics

No posts, class. No power, no internet

Might be days or a week before back. More ice snow tomorrow. I won't see comments, so thanks for understanding.
Read More
MIT Scientists Trying To Invent Zombies
Posted inStatistics

MIT Scientists Trying To Invent Zombies

No power at the Briggs ranch, so I won't see any comments. There are two meanings to zombie. The first are walking corpse, one of the rapacious undead who prowl…
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Class 44: What Causes Cancer Of The Albondigas?
Posted inStatistics

Class 44: What Causes Cancer Of The Albondigas?

This class is a must watch for all; or at least a must read. I've been showing you how badly cause is misidentified in sciences which use statistics. Today a…
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  1. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  2. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  3. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  4. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  5. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

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