Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Explanation Vs Prediction
Introduction There isn't as much space between explanation and prediction as you'd think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here's how it all works.…
Posted inStatistics
The IPCC’s And McKitrick’s “Hiatus” Time Series Models
Several readers asked me to look at Ross McKitrick's paper "HAC-Robust Measurement of the Duration of a Trendless Subsample in a Global Climate Time Series", which is receiving the usual…
Posted inStatistics
Regression Isn’t What You Think
We've done regression a hundred times, but it isn't sticking. That means my explanations are failing. Let me try again. Everybody knows normal distributions, i.e. bell-shaped curves: in shorthand N(m,s),…
Posted inStatistics
Foreclosures Causing Suicides?
Remember our discussion of the Spurious Correlations website, nicely paired with the Regression Isn't What You Think post? The two keys points of both are the (a) "statistically significant" correlations,…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Preface: The Philosophy of Probability and Statistics, An Introduction
%This is the Preface of The Philosophy of Probability and Statistics, An Introduction coming before Preface and before the chapters on Truth and Logic. Note the New & Improved title!…
Posted inStatistics
Evidence Does Not Support Low Consumption Of Total Saturated Fats
The full version of the headline is this: Current evidence does not clearly support cardiovascular guidelines that encourage high consumption of polyunsaturated fatty acids and low consumption of total saturated…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Statistics Really Is: Part Last
Read Part I, Part Paradox, Part II Recapitulation: we have Pr(p|qm) where p is a proposition of interest, q the evidence we have compiled in the form of observations and…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Deadly Sin Of Reification! Day Three
Zeno Phobia Counting day. How many ways can you skin a cat if the number of sharp versus dull knives is this and such. Simple stuff, easy to get the…
