There are two ways to forecast the election: polls and models. Polls are easy: go out and ask who will vote for whom, tally the results, and print 'em. As…

Three years ago in a speech on military matters, President Obama, reading from his ever-present teleprompter, several times mispronounced the word corpsman as corpse-man. (I don't expect you to believe…

It was Sophocles who first noted the truism, "No one loves the messenger who brings bad news." But the converse is also true. As it is written (in Romans 10:15),…

An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…

There are two main uses of statistics by civilians, defined as folks who use statistics, who may have even had a class or two in the subject, but who are…

Still at conference, so just a short plug for learning about which you speak. Stephan Lewandowsky, who believes JFK shot at the moon landings and that's why the globe has…

Yesterday, those noble Nobel fellows, the same committee that honored President Obama---what was it? six, seven days after he assumed office?---, gave this year's Peace Prize to the European Union.…